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Opinion
Barry Ritholtz

Why 'Peak-Earnings Models' Are Nonsense

Lately, there has been a spate of research, analysis and commentary telling us that earnings are at a cyclical high that must mean revert. Stock valuations, therefore, are elevated and earnings will soon begin to fall, bringing stocks down with them.

Lately, there has been a spate of research, analysis and commentary telling us that earnings are at a cyclical high and must revert. Stock valuations, therefore, are elevated and earnings will soon begin to fall, bringing stocks down with them.

This is neither a credible analysis nor a method of valuing equities. Rather, it is an interesting narrative containing two predictions, and generally fails to acknowledge multiple unknowns and variables. (Let's hold the question of whether anything as complex as the markets can be predicted with a single variable for another time).