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00:00We've got some very dramatic headlines, some very muted price action. What explains the difference between the two? One, I think we've all seen kind of this progression of the Fed being more dovish anyway. So whether this changes much, I don't know. But I think the market might be getting wrong and I'm still not quite there yet myself is we should stop fixating on rate cuts. What this means for rate cuts, I think. What is this going to do for the longer end of the curve? And what is the Fed and the Treasury Department going to do to prevent, you know, kind of a repeat of last September? And I think that's what the markets got to start thinking about, is everyone's well aware that last September they cut rates long ends. ROSE We're getting this kind of constant steepening. I think two thirties are now at the steepest level they've been in a while. The Fed's not silly. Basin's not silly, right? They've got to be looking at this. I expect to see a little bit more done to control the long end of the yield curve this time and maybe even help the mortgage market because again, this administration has talked about and that is three, three, three strategy is about getting tans below 3%. We haven't made a lot of progress there. I think that's next on the agenda for 93 on thirties, what does corrective action look like? You know, I think people are going to push that higher. I think people are very concerned about the Fed that all of a sudden doesn't behave as we thought. I think that's going to turn out to be a mistake. I think a lot is going to be done whether the Treasury reduces issuance, whether we get an Operation Twist, whether we get chatter about maybe we go back to buying mortgages out of the Fed and switching some of their portfolio mix around. I think there's going to be a lot done to try and control that. I think by the end of the year we're at 450 on thirties, maybe even 425. And I do think we get back below 4% on ten.

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Focus on Long End of the Curve, Not Fed Cuts: Tchir

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