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00:00Does a modest growth target bode well for markets? I think people were hoping for more. So obviously, you know, if you set a higher target, that means huge stimulus coming. But then, you know, given that in the past couple of months, the Chinese government has rolled out quite a few stimulus already. So it's time to take a pause and see what's the effect coming from those policies. So so that you can decide what to do next. Are they doing the right thing in terms of directing the right resources towards their stated goal of having more consumption here? You know, because there was a bit of criticism with regards to that, because they were going by the old playbook, if you will, of looking at perhaps still the funds that they have no real stimulus, freshly minted were going towards the old economy, as it were. Yeah, well, I think for years China has been relying on property for growth. So I think this is one of few times you actually say, well, we want to stimulate consumption. And, you know, given that while before the NPC meetings, you know, people were hoping for a consumption coupon like what we did here in Hong Kong. But then, you know, given that there are like 18 trillion yuan new deposits in the banking system just last year at. So there's just plenty of cash floating around. So. So in this environment, if you want to give out consumption coupon, it's not that people don't have the cash to spend is that, you know, people don't have the confidence to spend. So I think boosting confidence, maybe more of a key here. Can they generate. We were just talking to the Texas about this 12 million target of jobs. Yes, you target. Is that achievable? It's tough. I mean, obviously, the job market continue to be very, very, very challenging. So yesterday we've seen news about Gyngell Covid on Gyngell. You know, new the uni graduates, as, you know, having jobs that is offering them, you know, 2000 year in the month, which is like minimum salary anywhere. So, you know, it shows that the job market is very challenging as in 12 million jobs in such an environment. You have to wait and see what's going on. Yeah. Making these pictures. Yeah. This is the new foreign minister, if you will. He was promoted two months ago. He was former ambassador to the US. It's probably still sending the right signs, if you will, to Washington in some ways. But, you know, this relationship gets worse and worse, does it not? How does it affect your thinking in a macro sense? I think the direction is set in the sense that, you know, the rivalry is going to be intensified. So already we're seeing increasing band of technology exports from the US and is trying to hinder the Chinese taking the technology development. So I'll miss the prices set. You know, as we go into the election cycle, it gets even more hawkish. So I think people should take it as a as a given and plan around that. In particular, we're watching out for in this leadership reshuffle, there's been, you know, several names that been floated around. Kelly Fong, Lee Chang. Is there one person particular you look at and say that, you know, that's the big signal for where policy is going to go? I think people tend to look at the three key posts. So who's going to be the premier? So and the premier who is in charge of economic management and who's going to be the people's governor, who is going to be in charge of the monetary policy and also the CRC, which is a regulator that is overseeing the financial industries now. So I think these are the three key posts. And also, you know, I heard that there are new government agencies being formed that is regulating ISE or all the other oil importing. For example, the I.T. industries, the manufacturing sectors. So used to be NYSE ISE. So now, you know, we're hearing that in the central financial comedy, it is being sort of relaunched, you know, into a bigger, more powerful than there seems. Is that president more regulation or more perhaps of a warning than anything else? That's the thing. I think once again, there's a correction here. You know, after the past few years, we've seen increasing regulatory oversight over the national development. So I'm surprised to see, you know, more regulation being imposed. But having said that, though, I mean, in the past three years, we have this anti monopoly campaign going on. And I think, you know, it actually is well taken care of many of the lower income people who is working as, for example, deliver the very man, you know, for me to and for example. Right. So they are getting more social benefits, more pension benefits from this big conglomerates. I think going forward, you know, since the Tom Keene is being said and those are more organization is being created, I wouldn't be surprised to see tighter regulation going forward.

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Boosting Consumer Confidence Is Key for China: Hong

Hao Hong, partner and chief economist at Grow Investment Group, discusses China’s growth target, the labor market and China’s tech race with the US. Hong speaks on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

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