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00:00Shery Ahn I was just saying, if people were looking for a visualization of the perceived China security threat, I think a big balloon orb in the sky over multiple days probably is as optically troubling for both sides as anything. When you take a look at the reaction from Washington, Beijing, does it tell you that this is ultimately a definition? You know, the definition of a relationship of fragility, despite these guardrails that was supposed to be built? Well, I think that the Biden administration's efforts to build guardrails is definitely a work in progress. And there's more work to be done. There's also a great challenge in passing the messages that are coming out of Beijing. As you note, the tone has changed. And having those diplomatic opportunities to engage with them is really important so they can reduce the risk of miscalculation and misperception. I think there's been some mixed messages. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it would take necessary further actions and also safeguard the rights of relevant companies. Those companies have not been named. The Chinese Defense Ministry also issued a statement yesterday afternoon calling on a response, and they described the U.S. response as an obvious overreaction. But they said that they will reserve their right to use some sort of unidentified means to address similar situations. So that indicates there may be a risk of some form of retaliation at this point. The domestic pressures are problematic in this right for both sides because his campaign office is trying to reassert his leadership after Covid Thera, President Biden going into 2024. Does this mean that there needs to be, I guess, an adequate cooling off period before we get the contract back on? Because he did call it a postponement. So I think there's there's mutual interest on both sides to have the Blinken visit go forward. The Blinken visit was an outcome of the Biden Xi meeting at the G 20 in November last year. So. So there is an intent on both sides to use diplomacy to stabilize the relationship. I think Xi Jinping has his eye on a potential visit to the US in the fall to participate at APEC. And I think Biden's intention, of course, is to receive him. So Lincoln's meeting would be a bridge that would help facilitate that. So I think it's it's in China's interest, Xi Jinping personal interest to have a Lincoln meeting in Beijing go very well. But that said, there's there's definitely domestic pressures. This balloon incident was a gross violation of U.S. sovereignty. As you point out, it wasn't really a security threat, but it was definitely a gross violation of sovereignty. And that's something that China certainly would not retaliate, would not tolerate. I think what now needs to be managed is potential cycles of escalation, whether or not China retaliates directly or indirectly. They don't have too many good options to retaliate that they could consider economic or political ones. We might keep an eye out for potential intercepts of U.S. surveillance flights that are off the coast of China in international airspace. So that wouldn't be very, very reciprocal and it certainly wouldn't be proportional, but I think it's a risk we'll have to keep an eye out for. So true, China is saying that this was a weather balloon, right, for scientific research. What do you make of this balloon and how consequential is it because everybody knows that every country spies on each other. So is this just posturing from both sides, knowing that, OK, you know, we're doing the same to you? Probably, but you just need to do this in order to save face to your own constituency. And when you are trying to move on, what will actually lead to that? What could be that circuit breaker in this relationship? So there's a lot there to unpack. I think the first thing to consider is that the U.S. does not fly sovereign aircraft into China's airspace and it does not conduct surveillance missions inside of China by by military aircraft. The Department of Defense and the administration has flatly denied that this is a weather balloon. Weather balloons don't hover and loiter over nuclear missile sites. This was intelligence collection effort on China's part and the administration has called them out on that. I think even the original foreign ministry statement that was issued said that it was mainly media all logical in nature. So so its mission clearly had more than just meteorology in mind. So I think that's that's the fundamental difference. The U.S. doesn't do this to China. It doesn't blatantly violate its sovereignty. And I think that's the core issue here. Now, of course, both sides do conduct surveillance and intelligence collection against the other. That is a norm. But but entering another country's airspace without permission is definitely breaking both international law and norms. Does this actually give an upper hand to the Biden administration? It definitely gives them potential leverage should they choose to use it. I think the Biden administration's objectives, however, for the China relationship are really rather limited. They're trying to set guardrails. They're looking for the flaw of the relationship and they're trying to stabilize it. I'm not sure they're looking to leverage opportunities such as this to seek concessions or somehow a fundamental shift in the relationship. It's clear that China doesn't want to act with restraint and the Biden administration doesn't have much incentive to try to seek China's assurances that they will because there's no trust on the two sides. So so it could be used as a teachable moment. But I think the Biden administration really just wants to prevent the relationship from deteriorating into outright confrontation or even conflict.

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NUS's Thompson on US-China Tension

Drew Thompson, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at NUS Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, discusses his take on the rising tensions between Beijing and Washington. China threatens retaliation to the US who has shot down an alleged Chinese surveillance balloon off the South Carolina coast. He speaks with Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts on 'Daybreak Asia'. (Source: Bloomberg)

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