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00:00[CC may contain inaccuracies] Give us some context of the importance of China for global energy markets and how much you've had to revised upwards your growth estimates for energy demand coming from the country. Sure. And thanks for having me back. Good to be on the show again. So to give some context, China is about 14, 15 percent of global oil demand of about 100 million barrels per day. And more importantly, historically, it tends to account for majority of oil demand growth globally. So for this year, we are expecting Chinese oil demand to grow by about 800000 barrels per day. Year on year, representing around half of our forecast of global oil demand growth. So that's oil. What about the potential for a global economic slowdown? And what that means for export oriented petrochemical products, for example. It's pretty interesting that since the last time we spoke, the pace of China reopening has definitely accelerated a lot. And our economists have taken up zero. China GDP forecasts. But also this has pulled up the GDP forecast and PMI forecast for all all of the other regions. So globally, we have seen an upward GDP PMI revision so far in the past one month or so. Similarly, if a PMI and the economy starts to improve, we could potentially see any improvement in demand. Now, not all chemical products are the same for polio elephants, for example. We are relatively more cautious. This is used for plastic bags, typical manufacturing of which 80 percent of Chinese demand is for domestic use, 20 to 30 percent is export oriented. So if China is strong, but let's say U.S. and Europe is weak, the export portion might not perform as well. But one of the reasons we are a little cautious on the poly olefins side is also because there's a lot of supply coming online. So on a relative basis, we would be more optimistic on demand recovery for construction related chemicals, which not only are we seeing a GDP PMI uplift on a seasonal basis going into summer. We typically see a pickup in activity as well. So we are starting to see a very modest, tentative signs of market recovery for those products so far. What about a recovery for Russia? What's the assumption that. So for Russian crude oil production. OK. So with the G-7 cap on Russian oil product exports has just kicked in. J.P. Morgan's view is that there will actually be enough product and vessels over time to transport majority of the fuels. But in the interim, between fourth quarter and first quarter, if there is difficulty in routing some of that 500000 barrels per day of diesel, we could see Russian refinery throughput drop by about 300000 barrels per day temporarily before recovering back to close to prewar levels by middle of 2023. So that's our forecast. Our forecast is for a temporary drop off 300 to 500 KBC in crude oil production, which might just that we find we would put fall. And but a normalization in product flows and a recovery to close to prewar levels by middle of 2023 and again. And that was actually one of the key reasons for our more conservative 2023 oil price forecasts of ninety dollars per barrel. And I would say so far in first quarter of year, actually trending slightly below that. We do expect most of the price upside to happen in the second half of the year alongside China. Reopening, lifting my.

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JPMorgan Raising Estimate for China's Oil Demand Growth

Parsley Ong, head of Asia energy and chemicals research at JPMorgan Chase, discusses the outlook for oil and petrochemicals, and Chinese demand. She speaks with Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)

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