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00:00There's also a big piece of analysis that you did at Bloomberg paints a gloomy picture for the UK economy regarding that, you know, the hit from Brexit. What have you found? So so we look to sort of the impacts of Brexit through a number of angles. That's the sort of classic angle, just looking at the headline impact on GDP. And that's the number you. You've said there's 100 billion pound number, which is essentially that we think the economy is about 4 percent smaller than it otherwise would have been. Had it had it remained in single markets and we've looked at other angles as well. So the impact on investment, which is well known, the uncertainty has come through and really damaged investment in the UK trade as well as a little bit weaker. Though it's not quite as weak as we would have expected you to expect that to be one of the key channels through which Brexit affects the economy and of course, migration as well. So we've had migration has been weaker certainly from EU migrants. EU employment is weaker than the trend going in, going into the point at which we left the UK, left the single market. And I think the broad story world takeaway from this is the impact of Brexit has has come through far quicker than we expected. So most forecasters, including ourselves, expected a sort of slow burn shock, if you like, something that affects the economy, but over quite a long period of time. But actually, these numbers suggest that it's come through quite a bit quicker. And the risk is that there's more to come, of course. So that's the sort of key takeaway from what we found. And, you know, it is nice isn't terminal this morning. I mean, you basically argue that the economy is 4 percent smaller than might have been otherwise. Are there any steps that they can do now to reduce that shock, you know, in this? That's a really good question. I mean, I think what the problem the government's has and that there is a sort of there's definitely some sympathy hairs that you've experienced these two enormous shocks in the interim. So you've had a Brexit going on in the background, but we've had a pandemic. And, of course, we have this enormous energy shock as well. So there are these two shocks that the government is having to fight. And I think what what's really important now is that the attention turns to sort of making Brexit work. And this analysis that we've put out, it demonstrates that there's quite a long way to go to make make things better. And I think the challenge here is that when you leave you you change your relationship with the biggest trading partner, which is EU, and a frictionless agreement you have. You have to try and replicate and make up for that in other places. So it is really important that other trade deals are forged in time. And the question really there is whether they can truly compensate. And I think from where we sit, you know, the net effect of this is going to be negative for the economy. But there are, as I say, there are steps the government can take. And it is really sort of trying to find ways of compensating for the loss of access to the single market.

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Brexit’s Lost Output Is Costing the UK £100 Billion a Year

Brexit is costing the UK economy £100 billion a year ($124 billion), according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics three years after Britain left the European Union. Dan Hanson has the details on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)

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