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00:00There is a constructive view out there. It comes from NIKKEI of Renaissance Macro. Neil wrote this crystal this morning, just published moments ago I shared with you. The Fed is staring down the barrel of an upturn in economic activity, having seen limited progress in some important metrics such as unemployment and core services, ex housing, inflation, and is still deciding to step down to 25, signaling that it's close to the end. I can see why markets would like this. The risk the Fed having to step in later. The Fed story only works if the economy is slowing down. Sorry, but I don't see it. Kristen, could you respond to that? Your thoughts? I actually think we're starting to see a lot of the economy slowing down. So I think a lot of the signal just once. We need to kind of get to this point when bad news is actually bad news. So like you said, purchasing managers showed contraction in both goods and services. Granted, it's one data point, but that's something we're going to keep a close eye on. We've seen a big drop in retail sales. We've seen a drop, a significant drop in new home sales. The housing market has been significantly impacted, not from a price standpoint, but obviously from a sales standpoint. And then you're seeing retailers impacted in terms of inventory blowed less productive headcount. So all of these different signs are actually showing that the Fed's medicine is indeed working. But for it to turn up in the data in terms of their two key points, both in the employment market as well as inflation, it's taking some time. Do you see sufficient evidence for them to back off then to back down to 25 and maybe to deliver what could be that penultimate hike? I think I mean, this week I think twenty five is our base case. And I think we'll we'll continue to see that. I don't think there's any advantage to chair power right now in terms of what they hope to achieve and the targets that they have delivering anything other than a hawkish message or potentially something that is just were higher for longer, which is obviously still tight financial conditions. So I don't think we're gonna get anything out of it, this particular FOMC meeting. However, I think in March, there isn't a lot of data that is coming out over the next month that could actually indicate some trends within some of these areas that I mentioned. And so we're really looking out to March if there's any type of change in the rhetoric whatsoever.

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Citi's Bitterly Says US Economy Slowing, Fed's 'Medicine' Is Working

Kristen Bitterly, head of North America investments at Citi Global Wealth, says the US economy is slowing as the impact of the Federal Reserve's policy-tightening shows un declining retail and housing sales. "We're starting to see a lot of the economy slowing down -- the Fed's medicine is indeed working," she says on “Bloomberg the Open.” (Source: Bloomberg)

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