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  • 00:00HOW DOES XI NAVIGATE THE CHALLENGE OF MEETING TO CONTINUE TO HOLD HIS SEAT AND DELIVER THESE THREATS, WHICH PLAY OUT WELL DOMESTICALLY? > > IT IS BOTH THE LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM GAIN. WE WILL NOT SEE A COMPLETE CHANGE IN THE STATUS QUO, BUT BEIJING ' S AIM WILL BE OVER THIS CRISIS. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME. WE WILL SEE AN INCREMENTAL CHANGE IN THE STATUS QUO IN BEIJING ' S FAVOR. WE HAVE SEEN TRADE SANCTIONS, CYBERATTACKS, THE START OF MILITARY DRILLS, WHICH ARE MARKEDLY DIFFERENT FROM 25 YEARS AGO BECAUSE CHINA IS IN A MUCH MORE POWERFUL POSITION. OVER TIME, IT WILL TAKE SOME MONTHS. BEIJING HAS TO BE CAREFUL ABOUT CALIBRATING THE INTENSITY. BECAUSE XI HAS HIS PARTY CONGRESS COMING UP. WE WILL SEE A LOT FROM BEIJING. PEOPLE SHOULD NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE REACTION. SHERY: WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE ENDGAME? EVEN IF THEY DON ' T WANT TO PUSH CHANGE IN THE STATUS QUO, AND CHANGING NATURE OF CHINA ' S POWER AND MILITARY PROWESS MEANS THESE THREATS ARE A LOT MORE CONCRETE THAN THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN IN YEARS PAST. > > I THINK CHINA WOULD WANT TO SHOW IT IS ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY BLOCKADE THE ISLAND IN SUCH A WAY THAT THE AMERICANS CANNOT RESPOND AND CANNOT PERSUADE THEM NOT TO DO IT. THAT IS THE BIG DIFFERENCE FROM 25 YEARS AGO. 25 YEARS AGO, IT WAS INITIALLY IN COMMUNICATIONS IN CHINA. IT CANNOT PUSH BACK AGAINST THE U.S. AIRCRAFT CARRIERS. THIS TIME THE POWER BALANCE HAS CHANGED. IT DEMONSTRATES THAT IT IS POWERFUL OF ITSELF. HAIDI: YOU THINK THE NAVAL BLOCKADE IS THE REAL RISK? > > CERTAINLY IT IS A RISK. PEOPLE WILL DEBATE TO CALL IT A BLOCKADE. CHINA WILL NOT WANT A GENUINE BLOCKADE THAT INTERRUPTS THE ECONOMY IN ANY GENUINE SENSE. I THINK THE MERE ABILITY TO DO IT IS IMPORTANT OF ITSELF. HAIDI: HOW TRICKY -- SHERY: HOW TRICKY IS THE POSITION U.S. ALLIES ARE IN? SPEAKER PELOSI WENT TO KOREA AND JAPAN, AND THE PRESIDENT IS NOT ACTUALLY MEETING WITH HER? > > I THINK SPEAKER PELOSI HAS HER OWN REASONS FOR DOING THIS. IT IS A LEGACY POST-TRIP FOR HER. SHE LIKELY WON ' T BE SPEAKER AT THE END OF THIS YEAR. I DON ' T THINK FROM HER POINT OF VIEW, SHE WOULD CARE TERRIBLY ABOUT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IF THE SOUTH KOREAN PRESIDENT DID NOT MEET HER. IT IS NOT IDEAL, BUT THAT IS NOT ABOUT THE U.S., IT IS ABOUT CHINA AND SOUTH KOREA ' S CAUTION IN HANDLING CHINA. FROM HER POINT OF VIEW, CERTAINLY THE WHITE HOUSE MIGHT DISAGREE, HER VISIT WENT OFF PRETTY WELL. SHERY: WE ARE HEARING THE WHITE HOUSE HAS BEEN CAREFUL TO TRY AND MITIGATE THE SITUATION, PERSUADING HER NOT TO MAKE THIS TRIP TO TAIWAN. WHAT HAS BEEN THE MESSAGING FROM THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION AND HOW SUCCESSFULLY HAVE THE PUSHBACK AGAINST CHINA -- PUSHED BACK AGAINST CHINA? > > THE THING ABOUT THIS TRIP, PELOSI WENT OVER THE OBJECTIONS OF THE WHITE HOUSE. BUT SHE DID NOT DO WHAT MIKE POMPEO AND MARK ESPER, SECRETARIES OF STATE AND DEFENSE OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WHEN THEY WENT TO TAIWAN. I ' M SURE THE WHITE HOUSE CANCELED HER -- COUNSELED HER. SHE DID SAY THE ONE CHINA -- SHE DID NOT SAY THE ONE CHINA POLICY WAS OBSOLETE, DIDN ' T CALL FOR A STRATEGIC END WITH AMBIGUITY, SHE TALKED ABOUT DEMOCRACY IN TAIWAN AND PROTECTING IT. SHE DIDN ' T BURST THROUGH THE GUARDRAILS OF POLICY AND THE WAY REPUBLICANS DID PREVIOUSLY AND WAS MUCH MORE MEASURED IN HER COMMENTS. THAT IS IMPORTANT. SHERY: WE ARE HEARING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION IS PUSHING BACK ON DEMOCRATS TRYING TO PASS THE LEGISLATION THAT WOULD BRING MORE CERTAINTY TO THAT STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY. WHAT IS THE ROLE CONGRESS IS PLAYING IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TAIWAN AND CHINA, AND HOW DOES IT IMPACT THE BROADER U.S.-CHINA RELATIONSHIP? > > CONGRESS HAS ALWAYS BEEN IMPORTANT. IT WAS IMPORTANT IN 1978 WHEN THEY BROUGHT ON THE CONGRESS RELATIONS ACT, THE MID-1990 ' S TAIWAN CRISIS WAS BROUGHT ON WHEN THEY GIVE A VISA TO FORCE BILL CLINTON TO GIVE HIM A VISA. I THINK CONGRESS HAS ALWAYS BEEN WILLING, PERHAPS NOW AGAIN, TO BE MORE RADICAL THAN THE WHITE HOUSE. THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN ' T WANT TO PUSH THIS ISSUE IN WAYS THAT FORCE CHINA TO RESPOND. SO WE WILL SEE WHETHER THEY ACCEPT THAT LEGISLATION IF IT GOES THROUGH. HAIDI: IS DECOUPLING INEVITABLE? HOW CRITICAL IS IT IN THE DOMESTIC POLITICS FOR XI JINPING, GIVEN THIS IS NOT THE YEAR FOR THE CONSOLIDATION TO HIS POWER HE WAS HOPING FOR? > > IT HAS BEEN A BAD YEAR FOR CHINA AND XI JINPING. COVID ZERO, THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMY, MOST ECONOMISTS THINK THE ECONOMY WENT INTO RECESSION. WE HAVE A REALLY SENSITIVE DOMESTIC ISSUE, THE TAIWAN STRAITS CRISIS ON ITS PLATE AS WELL. THEN WE COME TO DECOUPLING, OFFICIAL CHINESE POLICY. EVERYONE KNOWS IN CHINA WHERE TOTAL DECOUPLING IS JUST ABOUT IMPOSSIBLE. BOTH SIDES ARE PRESSING AHEAD WITH SMALL DECOUPLIN. IT CAN FORCE A MUCH LARGER DECOUPLING ALMOST INSTANTANEOUSLY. THAT IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.
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Lowy Institute's McGregor on US-China, Taiwan & Pelosi

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August 4th, 2022, 2:54 AM GMT+0000

Richard McGregor, Lowy Institute Senior Fellow for East Asia, discusses China's ongoing reaction to the visit of Taiwan by Hose Speaker Nancy Pelosi. He also covers the likelihood of US-China decoupling. He speaks in "Bloomberg Daybreak Asia" with Haidi Stroud-Watts and Shery Ahn. (Source: Bloomberg)


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