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  • 00:00Currently one or two euro dollar. Well you know if the parity is now really quite close and I think unless euros euro dollar can can get above that one two three and a half level perhaps by the end of the week it could instead drop to parity. And I think we can all see at the form of those rates I think we can be able to see the former. Those risks are facing the eurozone for a while. Because it's all linked to energy security. And I think some of those issues really attacking the euro this week and many commentators like ourselves now believe that recession perhaps is really what's around the corner for this winter for the eurozone based on the likelihood that energy prices gas prices will be very high. You seen some horrible warnings from the German economy minister last week about the potential for rationing for industry for Germany if we get that in Italy too. It's difficult not to think in terms of recession for the eurozone. And of course if we're in recession. Well that tends to highlights the cracks in the eurozone structure. And that is of course at fragmentation issues that likely going to come to the fore. And all of that is is tricky for the ECB and negative for the euro. What's surprising is also we're looking at a possible parody and actually most of the other markets are not batting an island. Is it symptomatic of the fact that we don't we're just not sure what's coming. And so it's extremely difficult to price. Well you know that's right. And I think when we're talking about these uncertainties any uncertainties whether or not it be a Eurozone recession or a U.S. recession or you know food issues in Africa all of these things really mean people by the dollar. You know uncertainties mean that people just keep hold of the dollar because they need the dollar to pay their invoices or to pay their dollar denominated debt if they're in EMEA et cetera. And all of these uncertainties basically suggest that no one wants to risky assets and everyone wants the dollar. It boils down to something that's really quite simple at the end of the day. So we've got to view the risk for parity and indeed the view that the risk for cable in the context of a very strong dollar right now because of the large degree of risks that are out there.
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Key Levels to Watch as Euro-Dollar Parity Creeps Closer

July 6th, 2022, 10:26 AM GMT+0000

With the European economy lurching toward a recession, traders are growing more convinced that the euro breaking parity with the dollar is imminent. "Unless euro-dollar can get above that $1.035 level, perhaps by the end of the week, it could instead drop to parity," said Rabobank Head of FX Strategy Jane Foley in an interview on Bloomberg Television. (Source: Bloomberg)


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