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00:00You talk about how confidence among Australians seems to be quite low when it comes to China. What struck you as something that was new that came out from this recent survey. Thanks so much for having me on and Cherie. Great to see you both. I think what's really fascinating this year is that with those low levels of trust that low level of confidence as you say this has been on a negative trajectory for the past four years. What is different this year is the military element. Australians are clearly responding to China's increased military ambitions. Seventy five percent of Australians say that China will pose a military threat to Australia in the next 20 years. Now when you think about Australia's place in the world geographical position and of course the fact that China has ambitions much closer to home that is a really remarkable finding. The lines that we heard from the new prime minister talking about how there are lessons learned here from the war in Ukraine. What do you think China has to learn from what's going on in Ukraine right now. Well I think there are good lessons to learn and probably some bad ones as well. You know clearly an invasion in Ukraine is demonstrating just the limits of an untested army. And the idea that you might be able to finish a conflict quickly if China is looking at Russia and wondering what to apply to Taiwan. You would hope they would be rethinking their assumptions. Rethinking. How quickly could such an invasion happen. How successful could it be. They'd also have to look at the international reaction. We can see what's happening at the NATO summit. This discussion of democracy is being united against Russia's invasion. If you look at our poll findings here in Australia you can see that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made the possibility of war in this region much more real for Australians. The majority of Australians are worried about a war over Taiwan. They're concerned about China's foreign policy. And for the first time the majority of Australians would support the Australian Defence Force going to Taiwan if China did invade and the United States intervened. Yeah. So how is this your political environment really affecting the views of Australians when it comes to the U.S. to foreign policy by the Biden administration as well. It's a really interesting dynamic that emerges in terms of Australians feeling very scared and very worried about what's happening in the region. Only half the country currently feels safe. And in this time of insecurity they clearly are looking to the United States. We're seeing record levels of support for Australia's alliance with the United States. Three quarters of Australians believe the United States would defend Australia if we were under attack. But it's not without caveats. Australians have less confidence in President Biden than they did a year ago. Seventy seven percent worry that the alliance will drag us into a war in Asia that is against our interests. So you can say that Australians are trying to navigate this fear of China and this fear of Russia. But at the same time wanting to preserve the peace and security we have and don't want to be dragged into another forever war. So what does that mean in terms of looking at different alliances and grouping like orcas or the quad as well where Australia of course is very active. Well having a really mixed response to these new initiatives. Well relatively new initiatives. So what we can see is that when it comes to Australia's position at the moment the majority of Australians want to increase defense spending. Seven in 10 want to acquire the nuclear powered submarines that is slated to arrive under the orcas program. But thinking about those actual regional partnerships it's a bit more mixed. You know 50 percent of Australians say that orcas will make us safer and that will make the region safer. Similarly about half the country think the quad will make us safer. It's not that many people think that it's going to do harm but I think they're still unsure of exactly what impact these kinds of relationships are going to have. Having said that you know Australians are feeling very warmly and trusting towards other partners like the United Kingdom like Japan. And so those relationships I think are only going to strengthen as Australia tries to find its way. And there was a lot of hope Natasha that when the new prime minister stepped in that this would be a reset. When it comes to relations between Australia and China. But his foreign minister Penny Wong has spent a lot of time in the Pacific Islands. I think the moment that she she stepped into her role as well. What do you think it would take for diplomatic tensions to to thaw at this point. It's really hard to imagine a real reset in the Australia China relationship. It's characterized now by economic coercion security concerns military run ins foreign interference. All of these issues are playing on the minds in Canberra and also the broader Australian public. You add to that there's great concern in the Australian public about China's ambitions in the Pacific. 88 percent say they would be concerned if there was a Chinese military base in the Pacific. So with all of that in context I think it's not likely that there would be any kind of reset in the relationship. But we do seem to be seeing some stability or at least finding a settling point where Australia and China at least have official dialogue. Neither side's positions have actually shifted but they're communicating and that is progress compared to the last three years.

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Lowy Institute's Kassam: Australians Divided on Military Support

Natasha Kassam, Lowy Institute Director of Public Opinion and Foreign Policy, discusses its annual survey highlights. She discusses Australian's levels of support for military support, the war in Ukraine impact on people's sentiment and foreign policy. She speaks with Shery Ahn and Yvonne Man on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia". (Source: Bloomberg)

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