Live on Bloomberg TV

00:00We came into this year saying there's gonna be a slowdown and that's what you're saying. You are bearish now and that's a big change from six months ago. I think now the market is saying well the Fed may be overdoing it and therefore they may not be able to hike much above neutral. If we have a lot of uncertainty as to what the path of inflation will be we're hoping that there won't be crashes. But hard landings I think are inevitable. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz. Good morning everyone. Jonathan Ferro Lisa around Tom Keene Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg Television worldwide. The hills are alive with the sound of decent weather perfect weather here and our final day at these meetings of the World Economic Forum. The may be party but I'm sorry the gloom sustains in Davos. Yeah it's very much the nature of conversations talking about the war in Ukraine as well as the lockdowns in China but also a series of reports out of companies that really have projected downward their sales whether it's in video whether it's Dick's Sporting Goods all of these different companies. How much does that really color the narrative we're going to frame for the next two days here from Switzerland and then we will be in London tomorrow. But with a very much market centric analysis. Steve off to join us later on the equity market. And what we're really doing here is looking at the calendar I believe. Do we have a holiday on Monday. We do have night off on Monday. Am I off. Yeah yeah yeah. You really need to do it. Actually most people in Europe are off today. So if you're in Europe and you're watching where we are today. Well here we are. So I will say that possibly is why markets are so calm today. But it's a notable shift because so much tumbled over the past few weeks. It was important before you go to the brief of what we're trying to accomplish today. What's so important is we're so upside down. We don't realize it's the end of May. We're one month away from mid-year. We've got the jobs report coming out. I'm going to guess it's next week. I don't know to be on next week. You do. But we're going to get a look at those PMI numbers that John Farrell thinks are so important. And we're going to really be able to get a first assessment before ECB meeting and then on to the Fed. We already got an assessment this week. We got data that was disappointing. I gave basically a green light to have people ratchet back their expectations for the Fed and frankly to ratchet back expectations for the longer term. I just wonder whether people are perhaps overly complacent and overly perhaps confident that the Fed can orchestrate something very gentle which seems to be a growing consensus. Just one statistic because we get to the brief here and a look at the data and that is simply the VIX coming in 30 to a 28 handle. Yeah it's you know that's how desperate we are looking for him. Little teeny refocus here because I have no idea what's going to be looking at us. Initial jobless claims at eight thirty and we also get first quarter GDP readings. But really I am focused on those jobless claims as I know many others in the market are trying to get a sense of how we gauge this labor market how much momentum is there. We have seen a slight tick up but I emphasize slight there because we have seen that. But still claims are near record lows which is not good. Any sign of a loosening up very tight labor market. 10:00 a.m. this is going to be interesting. U.S. pending home sales for April. Earlier this week on Tuesday we got existing we got new home sales that came in absolutely terribly below all estimates. Absent bunching. And that really indicated to a lot of people a slowing in the market which is basically completely on the heels of a 5 percent mortgage rate. And at 1:00 p.m. I'm doing this just for you Tom. The Treasury is planning to sell forty two billion dollars of seven year notes. It matters. I want to know whether the Japanese investor is good at shitting me. What a. Why does seven you know what's special about seven you know besides the fondue belly of the cook. Honestly because it's always dramatic. It's always the one that goes wrong with the winners. Right. So because there's not as much liquidity and there are no lows. No. Oh yeah. I'm sure he's taking notes right now. Here is some good. Exactly. It's important and it's good to know the marginal investors that come in there. This is going to be an is an interesting set of hours before we go off to London. And wrapped around this are the two panels that I've done here at the World Economic Forum. And I really want to say more than any year I've been here they've done a great job of finding experts synthesizing the tensions of their narrow fields of sporting. Sir Lawrence Freedman with me truly expert on war. We spoke of the giant. Thomas Schelling is well and maybe someone we spoke to the finance minister of Malaysia about what unique challenges they're synthesizing all this in any given bank or people like Marvin Lowe. He's senior global macro strategist at State Street and he's the one reading and listening to what the experts here are saying to come up with a more market view. Marvin good morning. How would you want changed your market view given the set of crises of this May. Yeah I mean I mean certainly we've had a lot to deal with and a lot to understand ultimately. I think that we've been kind of in the camp that the tightening that we've seen in financial conditions and really synthesizing kind of this different inflation ramp if you will was going to evolve the way it has. So we're starting to see a slowing. We know the consumers tap and we're starting to see that substitution and a pullback in spending. I'm kind of having said that the inflation story and probably I think for me more important than jobs. It is still something in flux and we can consolidate around the fact that things are evolving the way we think they're going to they're going to evolve. But having said that until we get a better sense on inflation and jobs we're going to be fragile which is the reason why. Frankly Marvin I wonder about the complacency in markets that the Fed is going to back away from raising rates starting perhaps in September. Rafael Bostic a view of things. Do you think that this sort of narrative which has gained increasing clout on Wall Street has gotten a little ahead of itself. You know what. It's not as if we've rallied a lot of stocks right. It's not it's not as if risk assets all of a sudden have you know have recaptured half of the losses that they've experienced since the beginning of the year. So it's. So it's not euphoria. The fact that we could actually pin to a transmission mechanism that is potentially working in terms of slowing the economy is a reason to take a pause whether or not you believe that all of a sudden rate of the rate hike process is going to end in July after the next 50 basis points is probably premature in my mind. There's a lot of wood to chop between now and the fall. When we get a sense as to how much of the froth that's in the jobs market. How much of this kind of inflation discussion that's starting to spread is actually going to pullback as the consumer pulls back. Marvin how boring is the market until next Friday when we get that jobs report. I don't think we have a lot of data. I mean the jobs numbers is certainly the most important within the Tier 1 data at this point. I think all of us are tired so maybe we'll take this as a moment to consolidate. But you know those those choppy days based on an earnings and earnings release is still going to keep the market is still going to keep the market kind of jumping if you will. And to a certain degree that volatility can fight back. For 40 is probably off the cards. And so we get a better sense of whether or not what we're seeing is a sustainable trend. But you know we've we've got to keep on our toes for sure. Marvin State Street is been a leader in analyzing and questioning traditional asset allocation. And of course the classic is 60 percent equities 40 percent bonds. Boy it's been ugly. I don't mean it's been ugly for State Street but for the industry. Is the 60 40 certitude dead. You know I don't think so. You know certainly certainly everyone was overweight equities coming coming into or I guess somewhere in the middle of last year. And it ultimately made sense. Kind of those asset allocation tables have pulled back on that equity that equity allocation component. But where it goes is the question is we kind of obviously adjust things. Something at least is going to going to love is that when we look at the reverse repo facility for instance at two trillion dollars people are retrenching from. We've got some technical difficulties here on the forty seven connections we've got between Switzerland and Boston New York. Marvin Lowe thank you so much for joining us. We stay true at least to me. This is absolutely critical. You've got the equity downturn you've got the bond downturn. You're better at this than I am but I'm going to pick ISE g. G is not down 5 percent GS down 12 percent 13 depending on who you look at it. And if you've got the portfolio because you read a book. Yeah. Hammer Well you've been hammered. But actually people are starting to come back. And we saw one of the biggest rallies in credit yesterday in a long time because people are starting to think perhaps we're seeing some sort of capitulation by the Fed already that the tightening in financial conditions have achieved enough for them that they will pause in September. Wait wait a minute. Is it a good thing that bond prices go up. This is like cosmic folks. It's like the kind of conversation you have at a.m. It's your last corporate party of the evening. Let's go there at least. OK. Is it is it a good thing for all bond prices go up yields go down. Or does that mean gloom. Because the world's coming to an end OK. Honestly right now there are two ways to actually thread this needle on one hand. People want financial conditions to remain tight because if they don't. The Fed's going to go harder core. Right. They're going to be more aggressive. So things can't really move too much. You can't see too much of a rally in risk assets or else the Fed will be more aggressive. On the flip side if you get some sort of stability that might give people a sense that we're not heading toward the hard landing that a lot of people are worried about and we're still going to be in this sort of low inflation regime after perhaps 2024. So honestly I mean your eyes are glazing over I'm sure. But this is it. Brian Moynihan. Yeah exactly. I mean let's go to the banker at Bank of America. I'm going to say this with our question. Bank of America was the most visible bank here at Davos and this odd meeting of May. They said we're going to be here. We're going to be visible which I give them credit for. And the answer here is Moynihan said he's not playing the parlor game. No he's just trying to run a bank and he's looking at the consumer which still looks strong. And it's a blessing and a curse. I think the biggest take on this task. Oh yes. You know it's overdone from last night. I'm not. Why is it a curse that the consumer is doing. Because then the Fed has to go harder in order to actually unravel this particular economic momentum. How do you deal with the labor market this tight. How do you deal with consumers that keep spending. How do you deal with the fact that there is no obvious way to slow inflation unless you tighten things up it actually increase the unemployment rate. These are the dilemma that people are looking at. And that's I think why it's a good thing and a bad thing seriously as Mr. Lowe said and this moves forward to your study this weekend and into the analysis next week. I'm with low. It's about jobs how to use a Goldman Sachs. Yeah. Is heated about this that you've got to watch the job dynamics to figure out the rate dynamic. Even Brian Moynihan of Bank of America said that what he's watching is claims what he's watching his jobs because that will do more harm than good. Jack you inherited this job so I'm guessing. I'm guessing he's good. I don't know. I'm just by hunch. I guess I'm getting the chance. Job is secure. I don't know. You want to spend it. Really. You better take the front futures up. Twelve dollar giving it away a little bit. A euro one or seven 18. Perfect weather here in Davos. Stay with us here on an eventful Thursday. This is Bloomberg. Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the first word on which could you hope to have a Federal Reserve saw that aggressively raising rates would leave them with more flexibility if needed. That's according to minutes and this month's policymakers meeting that officials agreed that they needed to raise rates in a half point steps. The next two meetings. The massacre at a Texas school has revived discussions of so-called red flag laws as one potential compromise between the Democrats and Republicans. Those laws allow police or family members to ask the court to temporarily remove firearms or prevent that purchase by someone considered a danger. Still there are divisions between the two parties over the specifics. And in the UK Prime Minister Barr Johnson's government will lay out a plan to help Britain's struggling with the rise in the cost of living. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sinek will reveal a comprehensive response to help households. They offer will be partly funded by a windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas companies. The ability to open up society with low levels of death has kept Norway on top of the Bloomberg Covid Resilience ranking for a third month. A 91 per cent vaccination rate in adults has helped the Norwegians keep that fatality rate low on and came in second mid-May whilst Denmark overtook the United Arab Emirates for third. The UK is in 40 plays whilst the US is in thirty first out of 53 countries scored Russia finished and lost. Apple is taking a conservative stance when it comes to building iPhones is simply IBEX on the company's asking suppliers to assemble roughly 220 million of the devices in 2022. That's about the same as last year. The mobile phone industry has gone off to a difficult start to the air and reduction estimates on down across the board. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake hours could get tough. This is Quebec. I think as long as we stay the course on tightening which I think we will through the summer. The dollar's going to do fine. But if the Fed blinks because of financial panic which I think there is a high probability toward the second half of the year then I think that the dollar will come under pressure. Scott Fighter with Guggenheim thrilled. He was with us yesterday. And of course we learned that with crypto as many of you notice Mr. Miner making worldwide headlines looking for a move from 30000 down to 8000 in somebody who reminded me when love notes Lisa guy I love and I say thank you. We got a call that summer but I got the hate mail yesterday to remind everyone that Mr. Miner was gung ho to 400000. The new ones that I heard yesterday was Miner looks for a selfishness to bitcoin before an openness. He didn't say up to four in a thousand. He looks for some form of recovery. He said that it broke through a certain level that he had actually thought would be a by point. And then he'd look at the fundamentals and he looked at the ecosystem and said what. Where's the buy here. Well he had 20 odd people watching at that time and they got 32 love notes. So we thank you for the repeat performance right now. And yes it is. Happy Valley but pure colored by all going on in the United States of America and seeing the horrific news and beginning analysis of this tragedy in Texas. We go to Washington and our Emory heart and Emory. The image that I see is I'm going to use first names here. BDO speaking to the governor there seems to be a modest outrage in Texas over Texas politics. How will that play out in the coming days. All right. That was a feisty exchange. Then he was escorted out. This is bad. O'Rourke who wants to replace that. Governor Abbott. It's going to be a tricky situation in Texas because that we talked about yesterday the fact that there is an NRA convention you know just a four hour drive of where this massacre of children at this elementary school occurred. And this town is really reeling from what is going on. You're hearing now a little bit more about the teachers about the children their parents. It's obviously incredibly devastating. And then in Washington of course this all comes to the politics. And the president again spoke about this tragedy. He'll be making his way with the first lady to Texas. But he says he's sick and tired of it and he wants change. And the place they're at now is potentially Tom these red flag laws maybe as a starting point for legislation. Somebody at the NRA the National Rifle Association is going to stand up and Murray and say well we'll use five shot Remington 20 2s to squirrel shoot in the woods. So therefore we need to leave all guns alone. Emery what is Washington going to do with what I believe is five magazines of 30 rounds of assault rifle ammo ammunition at the moment Tom. Nothing there. There has not been a ban on assault weapons since that expired in 2004. And it depends really who you ask in Washington on what the strategy should be going forward. There's wide support in the public on making sure that there's stronger legislation for background checks. But when you talk to Republicans they really say a lot of it has to do with mental health issues. When you speak to Democrats they say that and the president yesterday said that we should not be giving a 15s an assault weapons to 18 year olds. This should not be allowed. They should not be able to purchase this. So you can see there's clear obvious. And there has been for years and decades you know legislation they really worked hard to try to pass after even on a bipartisan line. But it was blocked by Republicans after Sandy Hook. But there's potential potentially this red flag laws for that to be expanded 19 states and D.C. has it. And basically that means a parent an officer can go to the court. And then the court could say that this individual is not stable enough to own a gun or we need to take that gun away and weigh how much political oxygen is there left to deal with this particular issue which has been a hot button and long running issue versus some of the economic challenges that really are dominating the polls. Well I think right now there's there's a lot of outrage in America that there is another mass shooting and this one was at an elementary school. So their legislators have to respond to that. Right. They're getting phone calls. There's a there's there's a lot of outrage and a year in Davos but there is a lot of outrage. You can see even on the social media networks et cetera. So they are going to discuss this. Steny Hoyer the House majority leader said when they come back the House for recess they are going discuss this red flag long proposal but you have the Senate breaking for recess. So there isn't this impetus to get you know pen to paper immediately to pass some sort of legislation. And then when it comes to the economic issues of course this is something the Republicans are going to really want to pivot now going into the med midterms because you know the Democrats are going to want to use this tragedy as the president said and try to turn that into action. They're also going to want to use the potential overturning of Roe v. Wade which we might be getting in June. They're going to want to use that to galvanize Democrats to come out and vote. But the economic issues that is where the Republicans are really going to lean into one is by going to Texas. We don't know the exact dates yet but he did say that he'll be going there with the first lady at some point. I mean today's Thursday. So it does seem like this would be either tomorrow or a weekend trip. You know this is just for him to console parents and to show his support for President Biden. This is something losing a child is something deeply personal. He obviously lost his son Beau in his adult life but he also lost a baby daughter when she was just very young. So this is something that is deeply personal to the president. And the first lady yesterday was also asked about and she said of course we're going there. Emery thank you so much Emery Herndon in Washington what I do here Lisa is that I think is so important is to get away from the horrific headlines that we see and just go out and take a random X number of days to figure out how fast we get to the sum of individual shootings that sum up to these horrific shootings. It's shocking alluding to have been all over said last night how quickly we get to further horror. It's never reported and how it's normalized how the shock fades how the show is different than the Columbine shootings because this has been an event that has been repeated. And how that's something that we're now talking about that there's always a lot of talk at outrage but nothing gets done. How do you change that. Maybe it's outside our remit. I'll leave it to David Westin imbalance of power and do great work. Joe Matthews doing. But you know can I ask a dumb question. Why is this so rare in Europe. Granted they do have shootings in Europe. I take that point versus the repetitive nature of it in America. To me that's an incredibly important question. I look forward to hearing which I'm Matthew and David Westin have to say about this. There are a lot of schools of thought and I will say they are tough interviews. I will say over in Europe they focus very much has been the horrors and the atrocities going on in Ukraine and how that dovetails into new energy policy. How that dovetails into a new Democratic unity. And that I think is a notable theme at a time when there is a lot on the plate but this is a different kind of threat to Europe. It was interesting to see in the panels that I've had here at the World Economic Forum how people immediately link this war in Ukraine into the food inflation we're seeing in the United States. Some countries fairly successful like Malaysia but others really having a tough go with it with a lift in weight in the lift in rice as well. Please stay where US 0 1 0 7. I think we can get home. Steve will be with us on the equity markets. This is Bloomberg. Good morning everyone from the World Economic Forum meetings in Davos Switzerland. Perfect Swiss day here nestled up against Austria and Italy. Lisa Abramowicz and Tom Keene Jonathan Ferro is on assignment. We look forward to seeing them. Do we see you Monday. Tuesday. We're off Monday. We just went over that. It's a holiday. It all were royalty. Michael Bloomberg. Will you be working on his carpet over Kurumi Mori. Yeah. I'll be reading it. But anyways we'll have John Farrell I believe with IS on Tuesday which is a good and beautiful thing. Lots to talk about. Going into the equity market here if you are in any form of equity investments what we're going to do here in three minutes is must listen. But right now in New York a look at the markets. Kailey Leinz. Well Tom not a lot of conviction in the equity market this morning. Future waiter. Futures have been fluctuating between gains and losses at the moment. S & P futures up about six points. Thirty nine eighty two where we trade. But NASDAQ futures are lagging behind due to a few individual names. I will get to in a moment in the bond market we come in on the 10 year yield again 2 basis points lower to 272. And in foreign exchange it is the Russian ruble that catches my eye today after the Russian central bank cut rates for the third time in just over a month from 14 percent to eleven percent. A larger cut than expected really trying to rein in the strength of the ruble that has gone from strength to strength over the course of the war in Ukraine. Even in the face of sanctions in part due to capital controls. But now a ruble right around 60 to 74 strength is starting to cause some concern for Russian policymakers. As for a few of those individual tech names I was talking about that we're creating a drag on the broader market this morning. Apple is one of them down about one point four percent. A Bloomberg scoop out overnight saying they will keep production flat this year for iPhones. Two hundred and twenty million units is what they're looking at as they deal with some supply side challenges. And of course in video the chip maker also dealing with issues on the supply side specifically stemming from Covid-19 that renders them unable to keep up with demand. That stock down four point to five 5.2 percent as a result. Snowflake. The cloud software company also giving a disappointing sales forecast. It's down a whopping 14 and a half percent. The one more positive tech story out there this morning is Twitter. Elon Musk getting rid of that six and a quarter billion dollar margin loan instead. Thirty three and a half billion dollars worth of equity financing for that deal. Twitter shares up about five and a half percent. But thirty nine twenty guys still far below that 54 20 offer price. Interesting Kailey Leinz. Thank you so much. And I must admit Mr. Musk a source of conversation here at Davos CAC most important equity conversation of the day Stephen off his decades of experience as the chief investment officer for equities at Federated ARM as he understands how to participate in the equity market in a difficult moment. Steve. I want you to discern having cash and having a little cash like 4 percent 7 percent. Dare I say 10 percent of a portfolio versus the emotion of being all in cash. Amid crisis. Well being all in cash. Plus you've got a really good crystal ball Tom. And in this environment I challenge anyone to have a perfect one. I mean this is probably one of the more unusual environments here where even we who often have a kind of base case there's probably two base cases here. And you know you guys been talking about him all week. It's going to be in a recession. Are we going to be an Iraqi landing. Maybe soft landing but I think soft landing is kind of off the table where we're thinking more rocky landing or crash landing. We're on the rocky landing side of it. But I think you want to stay diversified here. We're saying stay defensive. We are holding cash instead of bonds and aggressive growth stocks as an offset. But on the other side of that we are definitely long a defensive dividend paying stocks. They broadly participate in the economy. And you know I think this is an environment where people have talked about in the past or you know economic slowdowns and earnings recessions. I think this time around we may be looking at you know an economic recession but an earnings slowdown on a now because on earnings are nominal they're not real. Yeah well Steve and we'll get into that in a minute. But I want to just hone in on something that you said that's so important. You said basically a soft landing is off the table. It's gonna be rocky. Has it already been priced in or do we have more to go. I think we're lurching towards pricing. And I put out a note last night Lisa saying that we think you know if you're fully pricing Iraqi Leon doing the numbers on nominal earnings and a fair valuation with probably a 3 percent 10 year yield which is where we think we're kind of going to be semi permanently for the next several years I think inflation comes up. It doesn't go away. So if you put that all together you're probably looking at a fair value on the S & P between thirty four hundred and thirty eight hundred. And it kind of depends on that. You know it's more about the stocks underneath that. But so we think we're closing in on somewhere near a near-term bottom here. We're staying in defensive but we're getting ready to get a little more aggressive if we can see levels. I'm sorry folks worldwide. I think we can stay Steve off has taken the Brahma Kool-Aid. And I mean I'm sorry Lisa. So he's sort of got he's he's got the brand leverage. You got he's got the sort of depressing gloomy view of the world. This is not appropriate Steve. Well Steve this is actually important. And this is Kim. Yes I think so. OK. Well a big CAC please. I will say that it's not just about where we are. It's about how bad the recession how many. And that is. Well that's going to be later tonight when we have a drink. But I do wonder whether we are looking at possibly. Yes a hard landing but that actually means a softer recession that gives people conviction in the short term. Is that twisted or does that sound right. Well I think a hard landing is just hard to get Lisa. Because the banking system is is way too strong. So you're not going to have a big banking crisis that could cause it. We've got so many job openings we're really seeing it instead of seeing layoffs. What we're seeing is slowdowns in hirings. And we've got a lot of slowdown in hirings to go before we get job openings to be anywhere near a job applicant. So it seems like there's a lot of room for steam to come out of the economy before you start getting big cutbacks. Even the consumer still has piles of cash. They're going to slow climb. But you know the idea of them actually stopping buying and causing a recession seems unlikely. So we're more really into the rocky landing camp than than a recession and a recession. Just tough it now anyway. Stave off could we get the nominal GDP call wrong if we have an inflation size in a real GDP actual growth size. Can we get a better nominal GDP that cushions the off in gloom. Well I wouldn't call it gloom Tom. I mean that's kind of where we are. We've cut out the say. We cut our GDP forecasts for this year to two point six. We cut our forecast for next year real GDP to one point six. So rocky landing but nominal GDP we've got it's 7. Five the next two years and I think that's probably conservative. You know that kind of gives the Fed a lot of credit for getting inflation at least down to 3 or 4 percent. So you add up. And if you have companies that broadly participate in the overall economy a lot of these defensive barriers like telecom Sumer Staples utilities they're going to grow their revenue based on an annual basis mid high single digits. And yeah they can have some margin compression but it's really hard to actually get an earnings decrease off of that. Okay folks it's Thursday in May. You've blown up your portfolio. It's now time for off one to one. Steve off. Explain the dividend growth trap about you're a pig and you go out you buy a four five six percent dividend. And that's not dividend growth. Yeah. I mean you can you really got to be I don't want to advertise my own products or any time. I think you want to let our special on find. I'm taking dividend growth products because some of them can be absolute death traps. And the high yield is just an indicator that the price is about to plummet because the dividend is unsafe. So if you're in dividend investing you've got to spend all your time focusing on the company's future and can it continue to hold and expand that dividend payment. And that's easier said than done. So you really want to focus on that. You can't just buy a yield and assume that's attractive as some yields are indicators of some bad things to come. Steve how do you deal with the fact that the likes of video the likes of some of the biggest most successful companies have been coming out and downgrading their forecasts for the year because not of an issue of demand but supply the fact that they're having disruptions and they're having to deal with supply chain issues that they were not prepared for. You're seeing the shares absolutely plummet after you see some of these forecasts. How do you shift. How do you know when to actually be a buyer. Well first of all we're digging in pretty hard to these earnings announcements on video at least as an example and you bring it up. But you know our our read on that going through it carefully is the real problem. There is the stay at home trades ending. And you know in BD almost 50 percent exposed to stay at home in the sense of gaming chips et cetera. And that's the point of the market where things are really coming off the boil. So you know Apple you know could argue supply chain issues perhaps but or Dick's maybe. But you know an honest video. I kind of take exception with you on that one. I think that's more is in fact a problem with these stay in stocks that people over extrapolate it just how far they can grow. And unfortunately they placed a multiple on that. That doesn't make any sense. And so with the Fed raising rates you've got that working against you and you've got you know the economy lurching back towards normal. It's not going to be good for the invidious of this world. See if you can take exception Lisa. Any time you want to. Thank you Mr. Roth. Here's a federated Amazon. Some really great. You've got the equity markets. I just got an email from Elle from New Jersey. He says Why are you looking at your cell phone. And you know on radio you know I would go to camera. We go to wide so we can see the hills are alive with sound of music. And you know you looking off at least is like sitting there being lazy like an adult. And I'm looking at my phone. I'm just check it out that the Red Sox plan for 65 baseball. I thought you were scheduling that Bell's haircut. I thought that might be what was going on although Kendall needs there. Oh OK. Sorry. I also note you know the Yankees are playing 7 0 5 ball. I'm not coming home until the Yankees play some 600 baseball. They need to lose three early. I'm with you. Being a Mets fan I know that you're not coming home until the Yankees lose three in a row. That's all there is. Oh I think it's not coming off. Must much watch. Listen. She's wonderful. Amrita Sen on 115 a barrel oil. This is Bloomberg. Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the first word answers could get to Singapore's president is warning against isolating China. He spoke after President Biden visited Asia for a series of summits that excluded Beijing. Lee said if U.S. China relations continue on this path it will lead to further splitting of supply chains or worse. He said it's far better for China's economy to be integrated. Brazil's president Jacob BOVESPA said he and President Biden will have their first one on one meeting next month. BOVESPA told CNN Brazil he will try to reset the relationship with the U.S. at that meeting next month in Los Angeles BOVESPA is coming to the US for a regional summit in Texas. Companies will effectively have to take a vow of neutrality if the latest school shooting sets off a debate over gun control. Otherwise they run the risk of losing business with state agencies. A law that took effect last year is aimed at protecting the gun industry from discrimination similar to laws used to protect people from racism or other forms of prejudice. Russia has cut interest rates for the third time in a little over a month. The central bank is hoping to stem. A rally in the ruble has slashed its benchmark to from 14 percent to 11 percent despite the sweeping sanctions imposed on Russia. The ruble has soared to the highest levels since 2018. Surging exports and capital controls hit demand for foreign exchange. And Apple is responding to a tight labor market and the spread of unionization efforts in its retail stores. The company is raising salaries for workers in the US by 10 percent or more. Minimum hourly pay for Apple stock will be bumped to at least twenty two dollars. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than 120 countries embers could get dark. This is Glenn Beck. The reality of the supply chain situation though is that every company every every electronics company is having to redesign for geographic resiliency. Resiliency within the design of your products redundancy different designs security. And I mean that's what we're going to be embarking on everyone's doing right now. And it's going to take you know another year or two younger. He's in the front row. Chuck Robbins always in the front row for Tar Heels basketball. The mathematician from the University of North Carolina and Lisa Chuck Robbins of Cisco had some really sterile math there about what was it eight parts to four million parts and one Cisco thing. Yeah. How much they have to rearrange and fortify their supply chain. I learned and honestly he also is trying to figure out how much inefficiency is built in as a sort of prerequisite of being just in time in the modern world. He also was talking about scope and scale. We were looking at how my ISE but some of them are going to have to achieve that in order to manage through this period he said. Some of his supply issues are solved by moving on private jets part whatever part five or six seven two point eight a point which so is that where we are in terms of the supply chain disruptions that that's more efficient. We're just simply not having that part at all. The good news is Chuck Robb is good about Elon Musk's fleet of jets of jets. Joining us now Alex Webb expert on the Muskie and Twitter saga as well. Days of our mosque. We call it Alix Steel Web on Twitter. Can you just give me an update. I'm lost in Switzerland. So Elan is no longer going to be leading on a margin loan from Tesla at least according to the most recent disclosure. That means that he is going to have to pony up more in equity. That stands I think about thirty three billion dollars. Now he's got 7 billion or so in commitments from private equity firms and Larry Ellison amongst others. It does beg the question. There have been whispers that he might try to renegotiate even though he's not tied to this deal. And there's a big breakup fee if he doesn't make it happen that if he has to find a huge amount of equity and social media stocks are down significantly as they are. He might then try to renegotiate. So the shares are up at LAX in premarket trading but they're still far below that 54 20 mark. That really was the ultimate pitch. How much disbelief is there a sort of baked in. And why are people still so skeptical. Well not least because Elan has said multiple times himself himself that he may not be able to do this deal. And he's been begging loads of questions particularly about bots. Matt Levine did a very good piece recently which he said that this seems to be a bit of a red herring. It's a it's a straw man that he can beat if he wants to try to renegotiate. It seems as though he does want to do the deal in some form. And that's perhaps why the stock is up a little bit today. If he didn't want to do the deal at all he wouldn't be rearranging his financing options. And so that's the indication that perhaps people are taking. Alex Review with me. Everyone I spoke to thought fifty four dollars was a gift. Take the money and run. And then we come down from there. Where does take the money and run in. What's that in motion. 50 45 40. Or is it south or. I mean it could go a lot further south if you look at the valuation multiples for these being based on their forward earnings projections pre pre deal which was trading about 50 times forward earnings. That meant that there was a lot of expectation built into where the earnings was going to grow. So the idea that even if Elan had a special source that could turbo charge them maybe that would just bring it in line with where the market's expectations already were using Facebook which trades at about 15 times forward earnings. Of course it is a lot more mature. It is a lot bigger. You could therefore draw a line anywhere between that 15 times and 50 times multiple and take your pick. Twitter is a far far smaller company that does give it headroom. Headroom but it also has far fewer users. So you know you could go quite low. It depends what the current management can tell in terms of an equity story in terms of what they think they can do. Alex days of our mosque. Very interesting. There always an interesting saga. And that's the reason why we all prognosticate on them. How much is this a sideshow to what we see going on with Apple and some of the other big tech companies that are actually ratcheting back their production forecasts and targets because they just can't get the parts. Yeah. It was worth. I mean Twitter is a small company. Twitter's revenue is about the same size as Beatty's. Oh British Telecom's profit. Apple is at almost well it's down now but it's a multi trillion dollar company. And so the small problems that might happen in reality they probably are quite small problems around the edges. They will cause fluctuations in earnings that are great to the twits isn't high revenue. So it's meaningful. If you take it in isolation. But in the big picture it's probably not enough to cause big problems. Alex you're such a pro. I'm going to catch you unawares here on the tragic shootings plural in Texas. Alex you are truly expert at this. Given what the little bit I've read just showed. Should social media and Facebook try to limit these troubled people out on social media gaining support from other troubled people. The effect of social media has really been that way you might have you know people with extreme thoughts in isolation and a whole bunch of different locations. Now those people can find common ground because they're unified without being unified geographically. And that clearly creates an issue. Does it solve the gun issue. No no. This idea that that actually it's to do with social media and it's to do with people being dragged to the extremes. Yes that's an issue. But I'm sorry. If they didn't have guns it wouldn't be an issue at all. They won't get too political on that front. There are things that the social media platforms can do in terms of you know ensuring people don't get pulled towards the fringes but they haven't on the whole done it. And it takes a huge amount of effort and financial resources which they have no particular incentive to dedicate at least if it comes to that accountability to shareholders. So Alex Webb thank you so much for that perspective always from London today. And of course we'll be in London tomorrow. Migrating back to you said it's Tuesday. Tuesday. Yeah Monday you have off. You're going to still be working. Yeah. Going to work on your car. I don't know. To make a Twitter. I mean everybody here is wired into Twitter 24/7. We can all state to the twins company. Right. It's a tweet. I've got a huge well. It's also the issue that you talked about. Right. What is the role of social media as the town crier is the town hall where people come and talk about what they believe and how much should be opened up. How much does free speech really mean. Anyone should be able to say whatever they want. I think that that's sort of the political argument and backdrop for why it was so interesting. On a broader level though it's buyer's remorse right. It's days of our mosques saying cloud that isn't way high price. I actually want to get it back down and know it's going to actually give me the financing that I'd like. And oh by the way it's also bringing down Tesla. Well yes and there are two moving parts here. Twitter and the tussle story. But this is more common than you would believe except his top tech first quote of 54 I believe it was everyone who's an adult in the industry tells me that I was extremely rich. Well that's the reason why the board just said sure you expect expect see some sort of pushback. You expect some competing offers. It just said great. And now the issue is getting it done. I just wonder from a regulatory standpoint is he buying and selling while things are fluctuating so much as we do on the real yield in London for John Jonathan Ferro tomorrow. I don't think so. I don't like 8:00 p.m. my fingers. How are we doing. Are we doing our scheduling here. Is that what you're doing. No I'm not going to check it out. You haven't talked enough about the real yield and we're going to do it right now. Yeah. What's the significance of the one we never talk about which is the five year inflation adjusted yield. Is big time still negative. It is. It was like negative zero point she said. I actually was looking at it this morning. I'm excited by NIKKEI giving a lot of risk appetite still out there. So I think it's interesting. Yes of course the bond. Because it's a surprise to you at all. No I don't know. Barry fell off a stool at the piano bar last night when Abramowitz went into bond chat from Davos. I this bonds next. We came into this year saying there's gonna be a slowdown and that's what you're saying. You are bearish now and that's a big change from six months ago. I think now the market is saying well the Fed may be overdoing it and therefore they may not be able to hike much above it. If we have a lot of uncertainty as to what the path of inflation will be we're hoping that there won't be crashes. Hard landings I think are inevitable. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz. Good morning everyone. Jonathan Ferro Lisa Abramowicz Tom Keene from a radio and television from the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland the fifty first year for the WEF and they've announced January meetings in the dead of winter. We're going to see it in seven months. Despite all of the people decrying the fact that they'll be slipping all into the ice that seems to be perhaps a better time. It is an eventful moment. And we've gotten a slew of corporate news amid this corporate executive gathering as people meet with policymakers. And it really paints a bifurcating writer for the US economy and frankly for the world tipped out the moment. Macy's doing really well at least. So to that point is the recession. Guess what I hear is a lot of pros saying you can't guess a recession. And frankly the data just isn't supporting it. Although where is key. Perhaps not a recession in the US perhaps a little bit more a little bit more pessimistic when it comes to Europe and other regions. But still we are seeing people spending and that's what we saw with Macy's. I think this is actually a really big deal that came out and they boosted their expectation across the board. Yeah across the board. And why the why is interesting. I think it's basically people are charging things more on their credit cards. They're buying. We've heard weddings and beyond. We heard that from Michelle Meyer at MasterCard as well. And far more important to me is this debate that's percolating. You're not a big deal. But nevertheless it will be a big big deal for your weekend reading and into June. And that is a study of the path of nominal GDP. And when I saw those headlines Lisa 14 percent is well and then you've got a forward view of 12 percent comp sales and such. That's a nominal GDP on fire for the consumer. Basically another way of saying this is inflation isn't necessarily bad if the consumer is still spending at pace with inflation. And frankly it will look a lot better for these companies Macy's among them. And what you're seeing is people are coming in and. Right. They're actually going out to events soak it up nearly 12 percent now after head of the open after their their earnings forecast increase. And honestly at what point do we take a look at this and say we can't get a recession if people are still charging everything out there. Amex is and and really going out to parties. Are you looking at me more today than it was during a theoretically speaking. Let me ask a dumb question. The morning we do the early seven o'clock Wall Street time. Why is Target so grim in Macy's so good. And it's the same story frankly with Dollar General that came out. But basically that you had a Thursday they did a bit more of a TAJAI downgrading that forecast but they had the same degree. But honestly it has to do with where you supply parts and it has to be if the composition of the things that you sell. And that's what we saw with Target and Wal-Mart and perhaps maybe he's had a pretty bit more basic mix of clothes and people are buying them to go place maybe a lift to the market off of what's going on in the land of the wooden escalator. Futures up 17 Dow futures up 143. NASDAQ up a fraction or two tenths of a percent up 24 points. I'm reading this off the Bloomberg terminal on my iPhone. This revolutionized Wall Street folks. Big dog is down at the twenty nine thousand even ten year yield. Not giving me a story two point seventy three. I do at least by using the tech in the Red Sox won and the Red Sox are still playing for 65 baseball this morning. OK well we dash to the airport. We've got a lot of actually interesting data coming out. Eight thirty a.m. we get U.S. initial jobless claims which is gonna be very important. Even Brian Moynihan of Bank of America said you've got to watch jobless claims. You have to watch whether the labor market is loosening up and you're going to start seeing a tick up in the unemployment rate. We have seen a little bit of a shift with an increase of claims but it's infinitesimal through labor. I'm not making this more dramatic than it is 10 a.m.. This to me could be the harbinger of more potential pain in the housing market. We've seen it so far in the volume of sales. We haven't seen it in the prices. U.S. pending home sales for April will come out. We saw new home sales on Tuesday come in well below expectations. Do you see a repeat of that kind of feeling. And at 1 p.m. Tom you'll be on your and the edge of your seat. Forty two billion dollars a seven year notes sold by the Treasury Department. And honestly I am interested in this because this is always a disaster auction. I want to see who comes in and buys it. In particular the Japanese investor base. I'm going to be doing that circle folks. You do east of London when you've got to wait three hours to get into Heathrow. That's what I'm going to be doing to. I'm going to be riveted here. I'm sure you will. I'm sure I'm going to be looking down a Charles Dickens family home. Charles about that's of a year or so. I think you'll get a radio. Yeah. Please just state that you know fancy suits fancy bow ties. You're in Chanel today. Guess what folks. 50 percent of renters in New York City use 50 percent of their income to pay their rent. That's appalling. Are times said that yesterday the scary part about the scary part about that is that has been a longstanding New York City issue. Now it's coming. Well some American Jewish and you're seeing that. And frankly the more prices continue to go up and frankly the fact that housing supply is not coming back on. Rents are going to keep climbing even if you get by towing in the housing market. And that I think is what there's a lot of people concerned about where the momentum is right now. You're part of global Wall Street. This is the bond nerd interview of the day a conversation with Ian Lincoln head of U.S. Rate Strategy BMO Capital Markets. Ian I want you to go to liquidity to the fluidity of the market out there. Give us a report on the flushing of the money given two trillion dollars in the repo space. Well Tom I think that you're right. There is a lot of money that's still out in the front end of the market. Moving around that two trillion dollars in the market is really distorting what we're seeing in fill rates. And it has changed the pricing in the front end of the market and it has people concerned about the overall functioning of the Treasury market in the near term. But at the end of the day it's still the most liquid bond market in the world. And as Lisa pointed out we do have a pretty significant seven year auction this afternoon that we're expecting will provide a good barometer of the willingness of investors to underwrite the deficit. Now all else being equal the recession commentary that has been making the rounds really is defining the direction of overall rates. We saw 10 year yields peak at 320. We're now down to 275. The Curve 2 stands at 25 basis points give or take. We really are moving beyond the initial stages. I mean this is amazing. Is it one of the people that cares about the auction. He is there to do letters saying thank you for telling Tom that the seven year matters. But even that's not that important because you actually are reconfirming the lower for longer kind of thesis as you look out to some sort of slowdown. How much pushback do you get. At a time when we don't know if Japan is going to come in. We don't know if China is going to come in. And frankly we don't know if the banks are going to come into the same kind of way that that siren has gets you our broadcast. So I think that what we've actually seen over the course of the last two weeks are early indications that Japan is coming back into the market. If you look at the MOF data we've got about seven billion dollars with the buying you know overseas notes and bonds. Now that's follows a stretch of 16 weeks where there was about 75 billion of selling. So still for that early process of getting Japan back reengaged in the overall global bond market but pretty it's pretty solid sign that I expect will continue over the course of the next several months because there is this sense of yield formal as it were. We're looking back at three point two percent in towns that I expect will become defining as the summer plays out. So in not to play the parlor game that I know Tom absolutely despises of what the Fed officials will or won't do. But do you think that they're banks that there's any sense between what Fed Chair Jay Powell said about not being nuanced about inflation and taking a pretty hard tone. And what we heard with Rafael Bostic that seems to be driving the narrative of the moment which is that move 50 next to meetings and then after that they'll stop. Well I do think the Fed has done a good job of signaling that they are more committed to fighting inflation than perhaps the perception was when the cycle started. But I think the bigger debate is one about where is the neutral monetary policy and the way that we're thinking about it is we won't know it when we get there. But we'll know it when we've passed it. And that's why people are so worried about the wobbles in the equity market and what that means for financial conditions because if Powell overshoots we are going to see a material slowdown and that is going to lead to a another recalibration of forward expectations for monetary policy. And that's why we're not at 350 tunes. But we're close to 250 in length. Thank you so much for joining us today of BMO Capital Markets. The siren and the siren here. I look as I'm a sucker for the European. Simon I think they just had a Jason Bourne sighting in the valley. Well then that's why we're here. More so. I think they will. We'll get on our bikes afterwards. We'll go check it out. This is a large transaction. We're not going to turn this into a tech discussion. We'll let our pros do that. And Bloomberg Intelligence. But anytime the numbers 61 billion dollars comes by it gets your attention. We're talking about Broadcom and the purchase of VM where which is coming out as we do hear more about consolidation in the tech shares and tax base. And I say they have so much cash. What are they going to be doing with it right now given the fact that they are looking at still a growing economy in the longer term and still a transition to the tech industry. This is really important. Folks that harken back to Microsoft and Activision which are sort of I'm speaking total amateur Activision was like yeah we're doing business for Microsoft. Microsoft said we like this. We'll bring in whatever the politics was and maybe the same thing here. But what does it say about next year given the tech turmoil that we have. Well there are some people who think that it will actually allow more sales because of what Chuck Robbins was saying got where he basically was saying look for so long these founders had too much hubris. I'm using my words not his. And thought that their values were so high that they wouldn't sell. Now they might be starting to get willing but we're just about. But we're never going to. Robin's on again folks. So they've got a list of 30 companies they're looking at at Cisco. And he refused to give us. He did. And then he looked at us like are you kidding. Yeah we almost got it out. A very important look for our technology coverage across Bloomberg Intelligence IBM where and Broadcom futures up 25. Please stay with us. Always an important conversation. Jeffrey you be and Mellon. Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the first word answers could get a huge transaction in the tech industry. Broadcom has agreed to buy cloud computing software company VM where the price about 61 billion dollars in cash and stock. BMW created the market for a type of software that lets businesses run corporate networks more efficiently. In China Premier Li Keqiang warned of dire consequences if officials don't move decisively to prevent the economy from getting worse. Li told thousands of local officials a contraction in the second quarter must be avoided. His comments were more candid than the official read out but published by government media and Apple is taking a conservative stance when it comes to building iPhones this year Bloomberg said. The is asking suppliers to assemble roughly 220 million of the devices in 2022. That's about the same as last year. The mobile phone industry has gotten off to a difficult start to the year. Production estimates are down across the board and the massacre at a Texas school has revived discussions of so-called red flag laws as one potential compromise between Democrats and Republicans. Those rules allow police or family members to ask a court to temporarily remove firearms or prevent that purchase by someone considered a danger. Still in our divisions between the two parties over the specifics and in the UK Prime Minister Guy Johnson government will lay out a plan to help Britain's struggling with the rise of cost of living. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sinek will reveal a comprehensive response to help households. The offer will be partly funded by windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas companies. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. And you could get to this is Bloomberg. Sweden is in a different position. We don't have a dependence on Russian oil or gas. We have 100 percent fossil free energy system in Sweden but we get infected anyway because of the joint pricing system in Europe. So the prices are very high. Good morning everyone for the meetings of the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland. Lisa Abramowicz and Tom Keene Jonathan Ferro is off this week. Thrilled you're with us here on our first perfect day in Switzerland. We've had torrential rains. We've had clouds clouds. Heard that we had hurricane. We had the hurricane the first day. Folks as well. It's really beautiful. You get why people come here in the summer. I'm telling you I grew up reading Heidi and I understand now the fragrant flowers and the fields of grass. And you know I could go on and not go on and on. The ski can't go up the he to go. And you can go up and go Vail to rebuild the road and all that. And there it is. It's been a very successful spring meeting here in Davos Switzerland right now. Annmarie Horden with us. And we're going to reset here on what's not being discussed in a China free Davos and that is whether China every heard in our Washington correspondent on finally Mr. Blinken will give a speech on China. Emery described the finally as we hear this speech today. Well this has come from months of negotiations right 16 months. They've been talking about this China policy and then the speech long awaited because Secretary Blinken had got Covid. So this is something that many China watchers have been waiting to hear. But there's not going to be anything too bold in this speech. It's likely going to just talk about a lot of issues in the strategies the U.S. is already using when it comes to China. So one they're going to emphasize the strategy at home. How do we make innovation better in America. Is democracy in America to strengthen allies. The president just got back from a trip in Asia and then finally making sure they can compete with China economically and militarily. Well but there's not going to be something new and bold that they've been hiding from us over the past year and a half. But Emery how much has the conversation shifted as we hear from Premier Li coming out and really downgrading the economic expectation for China. Talking about an unemployment rate there at near record highs. How does that shift the conversation from the U.S. standpoint. I think the U.S. still sees long term though as China being this mega powerhouse in the economy that they need to compete with even though obviously this Covid Zero policy and what you're seeing in China right now in terms of the economics due to that is hindering their growth long term. The United States certainly sees China as the region the country they need to compete with in the Indo-Pacific. And also Secretary Blinken today is going to make that point even though there's been a lot of time and energy in this administration used towards making sure that they are focused on Ukraine. They are still they want to make sure that they are communicating that they are still very much focused on what is going on in the Indo-Pacific and in China. What happens after this is going to be interesting because a lot of capitals in Asia are going to be. Yes on this. And when we heard from Singapore what they're saying is we don't want to bifurcating economic policy. And I've heard the premier saying if the U.S. and China continue on this path potentially we get there and they want more integration of China. We did not see that on the president's trip. Yeah but the dominant factor here and marry is this is one of the few we're all on the same page views of Congress. Does Mr. Blinken adjust his speech and his strategy based on China or based on Congress. Well Congress hasn't changed in terms of wanting to talk tough on China but there is some notable interesting developments happening in Washington D.C. The president on his trip said that when he comes back to the White House he's going to sit down with Treasury Secretary Yellen and look at these tariffs rights. A lot of economists are saying if you want to get inflation down what's their number one domestic issue. You know one way of doing it is potentially to let these tires. But the idea have a bipartisan letter signed by Elizabeth Warren as well as the likes of Mitt Romney and Bob Portman saying do not do that will hurt American workers. And also so China cannot sustain weak pain for a longer term policy. But you're really not going to hear anything different from Anthony Blinken today Tom. But what you may be if you want to loop in what he might say about Congress is this White House really wants Congress to pass that chip sack. That's about the strategy of innovation at home. Emory to get off script here as we end our time here in Davos. Once again America didn't show up. The secretary of commerce is here. Gina Raimondo maybe there's a few others I haven't seen. But I want you to explain Anne-Marie the reticence of any government of the United States of America to show up to engage the global conversation in Davos. Why are Republicans why are Democrats reticent to do that. Well I know also climate envoy John Kerry was there Tom because you got an interview with him. But you're right there has been just a low numbers and that we've seen in the past. American presidents really don't want to go to Davos. This is very much seen as an elite club for the rich and powerful. And how does that track with domestic policies. Now whether or not it's this administration or a prior administration every president is dealing with some sort of domestic issue. And I think this administration knows that that would look poorly on the president to be hobnobbing with the rich and the elite in this tiny Swiss mountain town. That is very difficult to get to when he's dealing with higher gasoline prices and higher grocery bills at home. See that. You see them do it honestly for other cabinet members are gone. We would have dragged him reappear here. But we don't. OK. In all honesty Ed Murray has a point right. I mean this is probably one of the reasons why it has gotten under so much scrutiny. But there is a self-awareness here of that. And frankly it seems like people are less trying to prescribe solutions and more trying to actually just have more and figure out things behind the scenes at Emory. One thing I've learned here with the pandemic is we're all learning to be social again. I mean everybody knows I have no social life. So it's not a big deal. But I'm sure I'm with all your nights at the piano bar. I did. But but but Emory what's important here is on international relations everybody's got to run into each other. And we don't see. What are you doing mowing the lawn at the White House. Well here we've got the sirens there. They've got going long. Ed Murray thank you so much for taking the breakup of president and founder of Glaser. Is the funniest noise here. No it wasn't the sheep. I mean you know the Simon and Will Kennedy God for him is is important. The sheep are out today. They're being cool. I think DeLeo underwrote the bar in the beginning to get ready to lead. The funniest thing you got with that was John Kerry. Then the helicopter came overhead literally folks right above us. It stayed there because they're doing a photo shoot. And you know John Kerry's being very John Kerry very well worked out very well. And we actually got a smile when I told him it was the GOP you know. That's true. He did smile at the annual or he smile. I got to say the irony though I'm talking about climate change and having helicopters worrying above us again. Oh this is not lost. It's a very self-aware Davos. I want to get things done. Full disclosure we will be at the Zurich airport. And you look out on amber waves of golf streams. They will all be there. Please stay with us to the meetings of the World Economic Forum. They are aware here. Brent NERA one hundred fifteen a barrel. An update from Emery to CNN Radio and television. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg Surveillance from Davos Switzerland. Switzerland Lisa Abramowicz and Tom Keene. John Farrell on assignment we've got a busy half hour. Let's get right to it. In New York Kailey Leinz. Well Tom the picture is looking better for futures were right around session highs at the moment up about thirty two points on S & P Minis and NASDAQ 100 futures are actually higher by a little more than half of 1 percent even after some of the disappointing headlines coming from the likes of video and Apple in the bond market. We're asking yields moving up now. A little bit of selling pressure in treasuries up about 2 basis points on the 10 year. 276 is where we trade. Yields of course were lower earlier in the session. But as the sentiment gets a little bit more firmly risk on you are seeing no bid in the bond market. And finally in foreign exchange and is the Russian ruble that really catches our attention today. The Russian central bank cutting interest rates for the third time in a little over a month by a larger than expected amount. Economists thought about a two percentage point cut. Three percentage points is what we got 14 percent down to eleven percent. They are trying to weaken the Russian ruble whose strength has become a little bit more alarming right now that Russian ruble is indeed weaker trading at sixty three twenty or so to the dollar. But of course there is a lot moving beneath the surface on the micro story. So let's get over to Romaine Bostick with some individual names. Yeah well Kelly a lot of that micro story centers around the retailers. And guess what. It's actually looking pretty good. Remember we had kind of a mixed picture out of the retailers last week. This week it's been a little bit more upbeat. Macy's shares up about 15 percent. This after raising its guidance for the full year. Those comp sales on a year over year basis came in at about 12 percent. And the company is expecting that momentum to continue as it's seeing a big shift to occasion apparel. The idea here that a lot of us are going back out of the house to fancy events and we need fancy clothes of course to do that. In the meantime we're still stocking non-stop up on stuff for our homes. Williams-Sonoma up about 8 percent. They knocked it out of the park. Comp sales were up 9 percent. The street was only looking for 3 percent growth there. So triple what the street was looking for a dollar dollar general which of course services the lower income end of the spectrum. Those shares up 11 percent after its comp sales came in at about 4 percent. And the guidance also seemed to be above the average of street estimate. So that's the setup on the retail or front here. The other big question for the day at least on the macro basis goes back to some of those tech names. You've seen a mixed picture there in video did come out with earnings last night here. They weren't bad. We're talking about 46 percent growth year over year. Unfortunately this was a company that was growing in the triple digits just last year. Those shares down about 4 percent. Meanwhile the big deal that really wasn't much of a secret. Broadcom agreed to buy the home where it's a really interesting deal. The shares are only up about 1 percent with most of the gains in the stock already being baked in open about 40 percent since we first started to learn about those rumors. But they've now confirmed that they have struck a deal 61 billion dollar deal going to be one of the biggest tech deals that we've seen in quite some time. And Twitter shares up about 5 percent. Tom on the back of that amended 13 deals Elon Musk this suggests he still still may be potentially going forward with this deal. Romaine Bostick thank you so much. More on the equity markets and particularly the good markets of the moment on the close this afternoon. Futures up nicely. The 30 year bond ticks above 3 percent which is one of those measurements. And I'm waiting for the VIX with a 27 handle. We're not there. We are also waiting for history to repeat itself. And we are seeing that now with the chancellor of the exchequer of the United Kingdom. Lisa you've got a better grasp on the headlines. Yeah I do. But back to the 70s maybe back to the 80s. Mr. Cynic is going after Big Oil. Yeah. Richie soon AK is saying that he wants a temporary levy of 25 percent and oil and gas profits basically saying it will be phased out when profits return to normal. That's what he said. He also said the more a company invests the less tax they will pay. It will expect to be used the proceeds to help adjust the cost of land for people in the lower income tiers. But this comes as energy prices absolutely surge. I know John's talked a lot about that and people are seeing their bills double in the pace of of a year. How do they deal with that at a time of inflation in so many other categories up to the east coast of Scotland to Aberdeen. This is an exceptionally sensitive issue and it's the same geography as America. But you have to wonder Lisa does it follow on. Yeah. How much is this basically open the door to some sort of tax on profits of oil and gas companies. It's definitely been something talked about in the United States. How do you then justify that at a time when you're trying to encourage investment but also transition away from fossil fuels. And for those of you in radio it is the well-dressed and always perfectly qualified to soon ask. And behind him I will not mince words. And I was Jane Farrell was here to help us. It's an exhausted prime minister of the kingdom if you're not up on the story. It's called party gate. If you're not up on the reality I don't understand it. John Farrow's expert. But I could suggest the prime minister the United Kingdom looks exhausted. Yeah well basically this is. All about holding a party when everybody else was in lockdown and able to see their families during holiday and how they deal with that. Well it seems like he is very much in a beleaguered state. We got to rip up the script to do that with them Rita said. Chief oil analyst Energy aspects truly excellent. And the microeconomics of what Brent crude will do everyday in your academic studies. The windfall profit tax is work. No one especially not at a time when you're asking all producers to also raise production right because there is a bit of a supply crunch. So the answer is no. I go back and read it to Lyndon Baines Johnson and the idea of an investment tax credit. Now soon CAC is going to fold in here. If you invest you don't pay as much tax. What kind of investment program spurs oil production. The problem right now is that you know we do need investment for sure. And to your question what kind of investment spurs oil production you're talking about investment in the North Sea. And that is not overnight. You are going to still look for. You need to first and foremost find the oil. But again you can. I mean there are small fields that can still be extracted and you can get some tie back projects which are pretty quick. So say within a year you could get oil out. But these are small volumes. You're talking about maybe 40 50 thousand barrels per day rather than hundreds of thousands of barrels per day which is what we need. If anything we probably need in the millions of barrels per day. For that you need a sustained investment program. And you know particularly the UK North Sea is a declining asset. Norway on the other hand actually has much better prospects. So it's not that lucrative to necessarily invest. But having said that there are still assets which oil majors over here could extract oil from. And if the tax incentive is right I think the world needs that oil and there would be more than keen to develop that. Except of course that there are ESG pressures on them as well. So that is always going to be the tension whether shareholders necessarily want them to invest in oil and gas regardless of the DAX structure. And Rita how much is this an issue of getting the oil out of the ground and how much is this an issue of refining it so that people can use it to power their cars in their homes. Well it's a great question because we've got shortages in both right now. Of course we're not investing enough in the upstream. That's been a trend for the last eight years in fact on our database. We've not invested much more than 400 billion dollars each year for the last pretty much eight years. And since last year China changed its policy around refining and product exports. And we've closed about three million barrels per day of refineries in the west mostly in the West. So we are very short of refining capacity. We have a few refineries starting up in the next couple of years and even back half of this year but not nearly enough to meet demand. So we are constrained on both sides. But right here right now I'd say we are more constrained on refineries. So the oil you and I would consume that's more constrained than actually the crude oil side of things which in itself is a challenge with OPEC's back capacity. I mean all this comes together in a toxic brew if you will that only raises costs for consumers and continues to do so despite wobbles in the actual crude market. How much I understand that perhaps we're not going to see oil companies produce more as a result of the tax that's being proposed in the United Kingdom. However how much does it just give cash to be able to offset the costs for people who are going to only see those costs climb. The challenge is going to be how are you going to make this a global solution. Right. Because oil markets are global. And I think part of the problem politicians in the West have is that they're always trying to come up with local solutions. Even the US is talking about potentially limiting diesel exports. That's just not going to work because ultimately both crude and products markets are very very global. So we have to acknowledge that oil and gas demand continue to grow very very sharply particularly in Asia. And even right now China is not even growing as they imagine when China does come out of its economic policy. In fact it's going to have. And we need to therefore facilitate enough investment across the board not just in oil and gas but also in renewables to meet that energy demand. Otherwise like you say there is only going to be one thing that the cost goes up. It is pretty simple demand and supply and read an unfair question. And this goes back to 1980 and the experience of the United States in a quote windfall profit tax which many people would suggest was just a flat on excise tax over the already elevated taxes they were already paying because they were making more money. Amrita said said if the United States affects a British equivalent and a windfall profits tax what does it do to a gallon of gas. Well I'll say this much I think at least producers we speak to in the US have said the administration has considered it and probably still is. You will see US shale production fall because again what's the incentive much like in the UK. What's the incentive in the US to continue producing if you're just going to be taxed. And if that happens then crude prices go up even further. Refining was already constrained. So you know gasoline prices already high. And of course it's going to make matters worse. But the crude price will definitely rise and read up 20 seconds. Whereas guys with prices where are they going to go in the United States through the remainder of this year. We think it's going to continue to go higher. You've got Memorial Day driving season and it's starting up and yes inflation is high but this is the first time in a couple of years where there are no restrictions and people are going to be driving and flying as well. So both gasoline and jet road prices will continue to rise. And we just said thank you so much for joining us with energy aspects. Memorial Day is that the Monday. Do we have the day that you're supposedly off and Monday that you're going to be working polishing your car reading in. I will say that. Honestly this is the issue when you just say gasoline inventories come in lower than expected right ahead of that driving season which is a reason why people are looking for at the prices just to I need a VW rabbit diesel. That's that'll solve it. W rabbit these started apparently to load your car up with diesel. It costs like one hundred dollars a gallon. Good point. Good point. You went back then. Diesel was cheaper. Figure that out. Yeah. Coming up Michael Frawley J.P. Morgan. Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the first word answers you could get. It's one of the biggest technology deals of all time. Broadcom agreed to buy cloud computing company BMW for about sixty one billion dollars. The transaction represents about a 44 percent premium to BMW valuation before May 20th. That was the last trading day before Bloomberg reported potential takeover talks. The U.K. will impose a so-called windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas companies. The money will be used to help fund at least six point three billion dollars of support for Britain's facing a cost of living crisis. Chancellor of the Exchequer Vicious Sinek told the House of Commons a 25 percent tax would be targeted and temporary. And today Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will deliver a long awaited speech outlining U.S. strategy towards China. But as unlikely to be any bold new direction unveiled. Instead Blinken will explain existing policies. The U.S. strategy includes investing in democracy and innovation at home bolstering allies with and competing with China on military and economic issues and on a BOB reboot is better than expected 9 percent rise in revenue on the March quarter. Chinese consumers turned to online malls for basic needs during Covid lockdowns. Ali Baba is a barometer for consumer sentiment because of its dominance in ages largest retail arena. The company is grappling with intensifying competition and mounting economic uncertainty at home. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than 100 in 20 countries could get to. This has been back. I think government bonds probably feel less volatile from here rather than in credit but it is still quite a challenging environment and I think that probably got another two quarters at least for Felix's sake. As we see this economic backdrop gradually ease a little bit and then we'll be looking towards the fourth quarter and maybe to see a little more clarity. Ann Richards of Fidelity International one of my favorite people at Davos is someone who really has a grasp of the dynamics of global Wall Street. Great to speak to Lynn Martin of the New York Stock Exchange the other day. I think Loretta a master at the Cleveland Flat Fed math wins and Ann Richards is the best of global Wall Street in mathematics as well. He knows the math of Macy's and it's up. Omar Saad joins us right now analyst at Evercore ISI on a very good day for Macy's. Omar what's the difference between Macy's doing well and Target doing less than well. Good morning from halfway around the earth. Thanks for having me guys. Great question Tom. I think this is really important. Actually a lot of people look at the numbers coming out of retail recently Amazon Wal-Mart Target and you know understandably get worried about a consumer recession especially with all the inflation going on. But I actually think something different little bit different is happening. I think we're reverting to the mean. I think you're seeing a lot of those endemic winning categories winning franchises start to give some of those gains back and some of those categories and retailers that really struggled during the pandemic for obvious reasons such as Nordstrom and Macy's you're seeing consumers returned to those stores and returned to those categories such as dressing up to go out. So I think we're seeing more of a spending shift in consumer behavior pattern shift then. Then I started early signs of the recession. The word moonshot is not part of what your research departments want you to use. The fact is Macy's has been a moonshot off the pandemic mad. But also over the last number of years it's been a real there's been a real doubt about the strategic execution of their management. Is this as good as it gets for Macy's. Yeah this is the ultimate question. Clearly they're having a very strong ISE earn a strong earnings pattern. The biggest change from history right now is the reduction in promotions. And there's two factors driving this and really the ultimate question of what the profitability levels of a company like Macy's will be in the new normal world. Their margins are way up because promotions are way down. And this is partially due to supply chain constraints and solid demand. All these companies and retailers pull back on inventory and demand is rebounding faster than supply. But it's also due to a lot of data and analytics and a lot of technological advancements. These companies can apply to their inventory planning especially on an omni channel basis when they begun to look at their customer not just an online customer versus in-store customer as one customer and one inventory rule for both channels. And these have been step function changes for companies like Macy's as well to better plan their inventory which means less markdowns and potentially longer tail to these strong margins that they've been experiencing. So basically much more efficiency. How efficient is it to see the consumer levering up in a massive way. And we are seeing that and particularly these earnings and the forecast where they basically said a lot of their outperformance or expected outperformance this year stems from the use of credit cards. Yeah that's actually an interesting new development. Credit card revenue share for retailers like Macy's has been way down because as you know consumers have been carrying much lower balances and sending off their balances during Covid because of all of the savings. So Macy's is the first quarter they've started to see it. We haven't heard much from other companies seeing huge increase in credit card revenues i.e. carrying balances. But there is a sign this is the first kind of sign that you're seeing that balances return. I don't necessarily think that means that consumers under a super amount of stress especially since you haven't really had a full credit cycle. However we are seeing that lower end consumer probably the one who's starting to build some balances behave a little bit differently as we cycle stimulus. So early signs but it's to me it's not something to panic about. Having lived through 2008 2009 this is a tiny tiny amount of credit compared to that previous cycles. And I don't think we'll ever get out of hand as last time either. Perhaps perhaps this is not anything to get that concerned about. But perhaps this is something that indicates that even if wages start to increase at a slower pace even if you start to get inflation outpace and continue to outpace those wages in a meaningful way that you'll see more and more plugging of that gap with credit. Right. I mean how much could that prolong the cycle for only more pain later. How much you actually seeing that versus just you know basically people able to spend so what their savings is. Brian Moynihan of Bank of America was saying yeah I'm more in that camp so far. Now keep in mind the stocks we cover and more luxury and fashion and tend to tilt towards a high end consumer. But you know when I talked to T.J. Max were visiting them in their headquarters the other day. They're seeing no resistance to price increases higher. A yours you know typically signs you'd see consumer pressure saying wait a minute that's a little bit too rich for my blood. Now a lot of this is really kind of revenge spending going on. After three years of being locked up in the categories I cover tie in to travel and experiences people go shopping into. There's some strong underlying demand there but there's just literally very no sign of trade down either which is something we've seen in the past. It's just not happening. If anything people still seem to want to trade up over. One of the things I've done in my extensive retail research is kids want vintage clothes. I don't know if you were aware of that but if it is a vintage I won't wear it. How does Macy's or the other how do they deal with well-mannered children who won't walk in their stores sets this specific time. Yeah this is great. I mean vintage clothes is a great entry way especially about those young consumers really want authentic brands authentic experiences and authentic products that have real traceable roots. It's one of the reason a brand like Air Jordan is doing so well because they relaunch so many these shoes with long lineages that go back decades. So it's a very strong trend. Now look Macy's actually picked up millions of new customers during Covid and a lot of them were actually young. And this is because you had a lot of young customers who were online searching for fashion searching for these brands searching for these brands that sold minted products like Levi's and Ralph Lauren. And lo and behold Macy's is one of the biggest online retailers that these brands are actually a lot of young consumers discovered Macy's during the during the pandemic. Now the actual volume of vintage clothing comments out there is relatively limited to the overall supply of new clothing. But it's a great entry point for a lot of these retailers and brands that younger consumer. One final question. We got 30 seconds tops. Can you explain Brandy Melville. Oh my goodness. This is a private company. It's not something we're super close to. It attacks that kind of team. Fashion forward market is actually an Italian firm. I don't know a ton about it Tom but it does reflect I think that desired. Team consumer it as well to return to fashion a return to life and get dressed up again. We're not going to be wearing sweats for our CAC Omar said. He is so slick he nailed that. Oh my I love busted your chops. Thank you so much. Greatly greatly appreciated this morning. I'm in Italy. OK. And I go by a store in a Brandy Melville. It looks like the Vatican. OK. Let's be honest. You have a personal gripe with Brandy Melville because of personal experience. This theory about all of the vintage clothing can start radically. Well look you talk about brandy. What else. Val Bloomberg Daybreak Bloomberg Surveillance. We stated it is Brandy Melville is one size clothes which means they buy them and they're appropriate and then they're not. And then you're yelling at them. You can't wear that. Next Brandy Melville. I'm dealing with the Air Jordan Reid. Who the hell is he said. So both branded and outraged. OK. Well and I'm sure everyone's really happy to now really is back to the markets. I think one of our best best guests process it with Jeff for you in the market strategy being why Melon would do that in a bit. There's a 61 billion dollar merger in. Stay with Bloomberg today. This is Bloomberg. When ever the Fed starts raising interest rates the spectre of inflation goes from the back burner to the front burner and people are talking about it. I think it's a troubled period ahead. And you're going to see social instability. What you're seeing here is a repricing and a rerating of the U.S. equity market. A lot of people are calling for recession. I think recession or recession talk is a little bit premature or too early. If they want to get inflation down to 2 percent within six months or even one year they are going to have to overdo it. This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz. Countdown to the latest read of the U.S. labor market from the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland. This is Bloomberg Surveillance live on television on radio Tom Keene. Jonathan Ferro Lisa Abramowicz. Off we are here broadcasting live on the last day of the conference. As people empty out the gloom is lifting and we are about to get a read on a labor market that still has steam and is presenting a real conundrum for people looking for gloom. Now you're dead on. There's been a lot of crosscurrents here and all of it comes back to the labor market. And this tea leaf the weekly data claims is critical. I think it really is what people are looking at at a time when they're trying to figure out whether people are exiting the labor market whether it still has the tightness that it once did. And we're getting that series of possibly brighter forecasts from retailers like Macy's where people are still spending. How do you cross how bad into all of the negativity that we're hearing here at Davos and beyond. Can you talk. Because most Shery Ahn has gone because the fund to us. Oh yeah it's rough. I hit the 40s piece and it was just too much. What was it again. Get involved. You get some schnapps. Tom Mackenzie Velveeta. Do you know Tang and Switzerland. Exactly. Right out here. We have a big crew here as healthy guys make this happen and bring the interviews. NASDAQ. This has been a really interesting Dow Jones with respect to our gloomy people are about Europe. There is a different tone when it comes to the U.S. the standing of the labor really or stamina of the consumer continuing to spend. And frankly some of the stimulus that a lot of people blame for the inflation also has given a lot of savings a boost which has given people a lot of ability. I mentioned this to a couple of central bankers today. I go back to Joe Stiglitz in the small G. The growth rate. And there's an embedded belief here that the United States whatever happens will have a better growth rate than so many other regions. And we'll get into that here in a minute. Jeffrey you be NY Mellon. Talk about that disparate disparate potential outcome for Europe and the U.S. Right now we are seeing a bit of a lift to markets. I'm wondering whether we could actually eke out a weekly gain time after the longest streak of losses going back to 2001. And what would actually drive that. Given that we are seeing some stability and yields we are seeing over. I mean honestly people are thinking maybe we're starting to price it a little bit more of a slowdown and it will give the Fed more flexibility with S & P futures. Look giving a lift right about five tenths of a percent getting really close to that 14000 mark. Tom you see me there. Lisa thank you so much. I was choking on as I read Jeffrey U.S. research report. And this is without question the most controversial conversation here in Davos. Jeffrey you is just brilliant with the NY Mellon. Jeff you you say they're wrong. All the people doubting Plaza Accord and dollar intervention are wrong. You mentioned the giant Frankel of Harvard. And you say we need to start to think about a plaza accord of 2023. Why is the dollar too strong. Well the dollar is too strong. And in terms of valuations that the U.S. needs to figure this out on its own accord. The dollar itself and the Fed is not really going to matter in terms of financial conditions. You look at the four pillars of financial conditions rates exchange rates spreads equity markets affects by a long way ranks lost. And also what does Japan need. What does Europe need. Europe finally they're changing their tone. You know they need a stronger euro to bring down inflation but they need to realize this actually strengthens consumer sentiment as well. And their purchasing power. So this is a very different bond compared to several decades ago. We need to think about not a new plaza or lever or anything like that but what each country needs for themselves. So that's the difference between now and three. Well let's find common ground between David Focus Lando over a small German bank and Ian Bremmer with his new book The Power Crisis in Every Nation for Itself. Jeff you how do you have coordination if you're not camped out in the lobby of the plaza in New York. Well know right now you have enough communication between the central bankers and we've talked about in the last 15 years or so like the swap lines in here during the crisis in during the pendant to end the pandemic. But it's kind of backward looking best coordination when it comes to firefighting responding to crises. And you look at the sanctions reports and after the war started. But you know where was the coordination of the head in an era of globalization. That's the philosophical question we need to ask. If you're talking about deep globalization then why bother coordinate. Isn't globalization by definition every central bank for itself. So philosophically where do they stand right now. Where do governments stand. That needs to be harmonization. If not then we can forget about picking up the phone. OK. So Jeffrey if we don't get that harmonization and we stay where we are which is in maybe a perhaps no big deal globalization but a regionalization of partnerships. How do you see the euro reacting at a time when people are downgrading some of their growth expectations for world growth. And we're starting to see I don't know the euro get a little bit of a bounce from that. So I think eurozone policymakers and to their credit the ECB starting to realize this a strong currency need not be a bad thing. You need more things to an economy than a trade surplus. Let's get away from this 17th 18th century mercantilist way of thinking. No it's harder for Asia and Europe to dislodge because you have stronger purchasing power that could actually help offset some of the inflation losses to real income as well. So they need to state a stronger euro at this point. And you're still going to be undervalued like even five big figures from here. Right. So that is good for the eurozone households. It can lift that demand in real terms. That's good for the euro. So they need to actually cross that hill. They're not there yet. But finally they are starting to shift. So I think the euro will find a new range a higher range. But still even with a high range right now it's still going to be very very much undervalued. We're talking about fluctuations that are minuscule at least for this week. But the big elephant in the room at Davos has really been China. Jeffrey and how we deal with the fact that the slowdown that we're seeing from shutdowns probably are not going to end anytime soon. How do you map that out into a currency call into a growth call at a time when it seems as though that is going to remain the policy at least for the remainder of the year. Well what's fascinating is if we look at our Ifo custody data our clients are starting to buy CNY. They're starting to buy Chinese equities. And after an unbroken run of let's say three or four quarters of selling gentle buying and Chinese government bonds as well. So looks like the global markets are so underweight. China right. They're not actually taking a growth view. I highly doubt that because of the lockdown still happening but maybe they're just starting to find some value on a total return basis with Chinese equities Chinese bonds and also the currency you know where it is. But to translate that from a rerating you know from a growth view I want to go overweight China again. The window is narrowing I'm afraid. So we need more stimulus more government driven stimulus and demand less right now. But yesterday's Premier Lee's comments he said basically to local governments you need to fend for yourself. Right now. There's very limited resources. That's tough going through you. Let's turn to your right virology expert expertise which is of China end zone lockdown. What happens to the Greater Pacific Rim. One day it's going to be over. Then what. Right. Then we are going to have not only Indonesia but probably a global context. The mother of all services stimulus is and we're talking about not just lockdowns ending but also borders reopening and China. There's no time frame for that. But look at how Thailand Indonesia Malaysia the ASEAN countries dependent on Chinese tourists. Davos. Tom Keene to watch shops in Davos. You know are they complaining about lack of Chinese tourists buying what. Those Patek Philippe. Right. So when they return that two hundred billion dollar services deficit China runs where the rest of the world that is going to be such a big stimulus something we can all look forward to. But right now again no timeline. Do you think Jeff that we're seeing right now people being in an appropriate slowdown and we take a look at the global economy or do you think that there's more to come to be priced into risk assets and frankly even to yields. So on a qualitative basis I think we need to differentiate what is a slowdown versus so basically soft versus hard landing. I think people still baking in a soft landing right now. But if the Fed turns restrictive and we still think the market's actually not appreciating the risk of that enough we're talking Fed funds rate now going to three and a half to that kind of level then a hard landing that I think the market is probably taking a bit too lightly right now. So we're not saying it's over yet by any stretch on the markets appreciating a great slowdown. They're just not ready to bacon a hard landing. So I think that's where some further repricing is needed in the short term. Valuations adjustments weights and readjustments. We're seeing a bit of a risk bounce but I think the Fed will have the final word on that. Jeff you're brilliant. Extremely important not really pushing against the. Forget about the Plaza Accord consensus mister you would be NYSE million today. I can't say enough how alone Jeff was on this call. Yeah a lot of people are looking for some sort of coordination in a way that perhaps. No. Yeah. Your bank. Lead the charge. But frankly it's hard to see how you get some sort of synchronized move at a time. As Jeff was saying. Right. Where people are moving away from each other and looking at idiosyncratic economies. I'm going to tear up my throat. Just go. You know you do this for eight hours for five days. And you know I lost it there. And Lisa you saved the show. Roto Keeper of the AMA. Yeah. His Swiss. Yeah. He's this time we start to read who's in charge like the whole budget year. Yeah. Including the fondue. Yeah. The team here. They I didn't know this. They. I hope I'm pronouncing this right. Oh I hope I'm pronouncing this right. Regi Kersh from Schweizer in Lucerne. We say thank you to fast bend Reggie Kersh its fruity flavor complemented by a subtle bitterness. That's great Tom. It's great. Yeah. Thank you for that. I'm sure. Would you say I hope I'm pronouncing this right just for everybody. That probably is not right. Covid Dow Jones Kurdish You keep practicing that. We're going to be talking about real estate coming up of the various sides of Matt Miller. Frankly I know we're just having two different conversations right now. But in addition to the jobless claims that we get last Friday put me in 20 minutes here. We're also going to be getting housing data that will be key at a time when interest rates are climbing to the degree. Jonathan Ferro. How do you really. Miller Samuel. He's President Chief Executive Officer G. I'm fascinated does say that. I think we'll ask Jonathan Miller. This is Bloomberg Real Yield Kersh. Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the first word answers you could get to. It's one of the biggest technology deals of all time. Broadcom agreed to buy cloud computing company BMW for about sixty one billion dollars. The transaction represents about a 44 percent premium to BMW valuation before May 20th. That was the last trading day before Bloomberg reported potential takeover talks. The U.K. will impose a so-called windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas. The money will be used to help fund at least six point three billion dollars of support for Britain's facing a cost of living crisis talks with the Exchequer Rishi Snack told the House of Commons. The 25 per cent tax would be temporary. Senior ministers in the British government have long opposed a special levy on energy firms because they fear it will hurt investment in China. Premier Li Keqiang warned of dire consequences if officials don't move decisively to prevent the economy from getting worse. Li told thousands of local officials a contraction in the second quarter must be avoided. His comments were more candid than the official but out published by government media the massacre at a Texas school has revived discussions of so-called red flag laws as one potential compromise between Democrats and Republicans. Those laws allow police or family members to ask a court to temporarily remove firearms or prevent their purchased by someone considered a danger. Still there are divisions between the two parties over the specifics and Apple is taking a conservative stance when it comes to building iPhones this year. Bloomberg slammed the companies asking suppliers to assemble roughly 220 million of the devices in 2022. That's about the same as last year. The mobile phone industry has got off to a difficult start to the air and production estimates down across the board. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. And Kid Gupta. This is Bloomberg. There's no doubt that the fight against Covid in China has had an impact. They short term on the Chinese economy. China is very determined and seems very convinced that they will be able to meet their growth targets and they're not right now accelerating the infrastructure investment the next elevated infrastructure investments. It's good for file on him. He's the chief executive officer of Rio Tinto. Joachim Stockholm with a view from Sydney to Perth. Do you know Sydney's on the East Coast per se. Oh I guess he was from Australia riding in being like please never ever say perfect. Rio Tinto is a step forward I guess with BHP Billiton and the rest. That would be Broken Hill Properties. Thank you. From Sydney to Perth as well. There are and I've got the step is looking good right now. I looked at Newcastle coal. In fact I mentioned Australian coal today. Is it spiked up so much you can't even do a standard deviation study. Welcome to Davos World Economic Forum. And right now these emerging markets were hugely represented in these meetings. Damien Sasso joins us in New York. Damien I want to talk about what Rio Tinto was looking at which is the moon shot of coal. Is your world adjusting to a permanence of higher commodity prices. Or do you look at Newcastle coal from Sydney to Perth as a one off. I think it's turning the other way. Actually Tom I mean look energy is one thing but base metals are really fallen off. And you see that reflected in a lot of the emerging market currencies such as the real and the South African rand and the Chilean peso and many of those that basically go hand in hand with that. But look you know for me the big story in emerging markets is going to be on one side. You've got President Xi and his commitment to Covid zero and you've got Premier Li CAC who called in over a thousand financial professionals just yesterday at an emergency meeting to talk about increased lending to households to commercials. And if you're running a bank like ICBC and Bank of China you know it's like deciding which picture to pull out of the Red Sox bullpen. There's really a very small probability of getting a win out of this. So how do you get to the. And try to translate it for us David. This is important. And I'm so glad you brought this up because frankly the dichotomy between these two behemoths and China really highlights how people are wondering about the leadership and about the direction of a nation absolutely hammered by their zero Covid policy. What do you take away from this and frankly from the possibility that Xi Jinping doesn't have the clutch over the nation that he was expected to have. Well my takeaway is that there is a distinct political agenda here ahead of the October party Congress. And it's very it's getting very very difficult for President Xi to hide behind that. You know he's trying to get re-elected for an unprecedented third term at least. And I think that is his priority more so than the health of the economy in the state. Right. Because if he really was concerned about the economy in my opinion he'd be handing out cash. You wouldn't be trying to extend credit to people when there's no demand for it. You'd be handing out cash giving vouchers giving assistance direct financial aid to households and cooking and companies who would so very badly need it. And that's what's missing here in the thirty three point plan. Lisa. Yeah. But but but Damian the fact that such a high level official would come out publicly and so directly give a different tone than Xi Jinping who is by all accounts going to be the leader indefinitely. What does that tell you about where the economy is and frankly what happens after the party Congress is held. Well it's confusion. I mean it's basically luck. I mean Premier League coaching is not going to deliver that address without a full signoff by and by. By the president. So you know it's just it's two sides of the same coin. And it's just it's ambiguity more ambiguity. And it's that it's it's that which is really driving the decision tree at the top of the C suite of most of the major corporate banks. I mean how do you lend to small and medium sized businesses if their business plans don't work. Right. You know you're gonna be you know it's what we heard about China going back into the 90s. You know they're gonna be building towns to nowhere railways to nowhere bridges to nowhere. And I think you know something needs to be done to prevent that quite frankly. You just brought back David Tomlinson and Mary Poppins the magical moment there with Dick Van Dyke. Damien says so you're a fan of culture. Damian I met with a minister of finance in Malaysia today. And every time we talked it was he was brilliant. He certainly was. He's a Liverpool fan. What is that about any circle back. Damian He's circled back to their commodity mix. Let's go to the heart of it. It's 200 for foreign and forty three thousand miles from Sydney to Perth. Tell me about the commodity variable for China. Is that come out of lockdown. How do you analyse that. Well you know it's getting increasingly difficult Tom and I'll tell you. Why would China's been doing any G7 connect which provides real time trucking data out of China. You know they banned that data now from from going out to to to to the masses. You know and what you're seeing in China is they're really restricting a lot of access to high frequency data. So we really don't have that much more to go on. And I think that's a real concern. It just shows how bad things are on the ground how deep you know that the slowdown is hitting. You know it's hitting. And so you know for me it's how do you kind of provide transparency in a country which is basically holding it back as an investor how can you justify to your fiduciary is making an investment in a country that's just you know holding back data that's not giving you all the answers. And I think that's the real concern for me. I think that's the real concern from emerging market practitioners here. Damien Ceasar thank you so much. And important conversation here on E. Which I would say in the market leases out of the picture. Yeah except in Davos it was front and center very much as people try to understand where the marginal growth is going to come from if it's not going to come from China. Tom literally that entire segment you're just coming up with ways to keep saying Perth. Am I wrong. Yeah. What I don't understand. You know I wrote my novel shoot and I watched on the beach and all that. There's just this conceit that you say it's like in America from New York to San Francisco. Yeah. They say from Sydney to Perth. That's how they pay for it. I don't think they ever say it's Jagger A. I don't know. Do you do a road trip across Australia. I think that way I guess we have to do that right. I guess we'll do a full on of shoot. Honestly we are about five minutes away from U.S. God. And I do want to refocus on that because frankly I do think that it will be telling where he'll get the GDP reading for that first quarter. But more importantly jobless claims. If you do a road trip in Australia like you said America and you do a road trip you listen to Grand Funk Railroad the whole way across America. What do you do in Australia. Listen to Rick Springfield. No I've listened to other. What else. You got it. But that's Swedish. Whatever they add to Australia. I don't know whether you can ask Quantas. It can like to know can we get to the jobless claims that we're gonna be getting in about five minutes. So a serious number here and we're back to normal. That's what we're talking about. Are we back to normal or do you start to see the swings that are more significant as we do see a number of companies start to lay off staff. You're seeing that on the peripheries particularly. It's about Remo Bloom. You're seeing statistically we're seeing that it's a statistic that I would say anecdotally there were two companies that hired you saw Amazon with this. You saw Walmart with this hired substantially some of the warehouse staff and other pertinent personnel that are having to cut that. How much is DAX. Look it matters. What's the claims number where we go oh AMG it's all gone. It's just the pace of how much it increases. Do we move off of the incredibly low levels quickly. That's an English major calculus. You just thank you. I appreciate that. It's Major Michael McKee Michael Crowley everybody in the half hours. Michael stay with us from Davos. This is Bloomberg on radio and television. Good morning. Good morning everyone from the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland. It's a perfect day here and supposedly it is a perfect American labor economy. But an important data point are Michael McKee Bloomberg Economics and policy correspondent the weekly jobless claims number. Michael. Well it's not just the weekly jobless claims number Tom although that's important. But we're getting a second read on GDP at this point. The jobless claims numbers are coming in at two hundred and ten thousand which is down from the two hundred and eighteen thousand initially reported last week. And that is going to be good news. There were some who even went as far as speculating maybe the labor market was rolling over. But clearly that is not the case. GDP comes in at negative one point five percent. That is a tenth of a percentage point lower than the one point four percent originally recorded by the government for the first quarter. The personal consumption index rises though. We spent more money. People did. Three point one percent increase over the fourth quarter compared to a two point seven percent increase. So it does look like the the economy is still in decent shape or it was coming out of the fourth quarter and into the first quarter. Now the question is what's happening in the current quarter. Michael then the markets here pretty much stays here. Futures up 15 and we'll see what the bond market does. Michael McKee Jeffrey you with an incredibly important note on the Plaza Accord sites. Jeffrey Frankel of Harvard University. And as you know Michael McKee Frankel of Harvard has been definitive on trying to figure out the definition of a recession. Michael with all that you read do you ascribe to NBER. Are two negative quarters of GDP is a recession. Well that's not the NBER. That's just sort of a technical definition that appears in some textbooks. And it's not what the NBER says. The NBER looks at consumer spending and business spending and things like that. And it has to be a generalized decline in economic activity over a period of time for them to declare a recession which is why they wait a long time before saying we are in one or not because they need to get all of the revised figures together to find out if we have had that kind of decline. There's no way we're in one right now. There's no reason to think we couldn't go into one. We're not likely to. According to the latest numbers that we're getting. But right now we're not we're not anticipating that this quarter will be a negative quarter either. Mike this was actually a positive despite downside surprise right. Because you want fewer jobless claims if you want to see a robust market or perhaps not. Have we gotten back to good news being bad news. I'm looking right now at some of the futures off the lows. I mean frankly off the highs. And you see yields near session lows particularly on a two year note. Mike what's your interpretation of this as people look and expect the Fed to perhaps be a little more patient than a couple of weeks ago. Well everybody is as you say expecting the Fed to be a little bit more patient. It all came up yesterday in the minutes which didn't tell us anything new. The Fed is going to raise rates 50 basis points at the next two meetings and then see what happens. And so it may be a little early yet to make a call on that in terms of what's going on with economic data although new home sales and existing home sales have started to roll over and we've obviously had troubles in the stock market. But as long as the jobless rate is this low and of course we'll see next Friday what happens with employment. It's not likely that we're going to see the Fed pause because inflationary pressures will still be there. And they did warn a lot in the minutes yesterday about the impacts from China and the impacts from the Ukraine war. So that's what they're gonna be watching for. Clear as Jay pulses clear and convincing evidence that inflation is going down in the numbers we got today. RTS Michael McKee thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it. Claims claims come in a bit positive Europe. But the GDP revised a little bit challenging to say the least right now. And an immense joy as Michael Froman the chief U.S. economist at JP Morgan and the hallmark of his weekly notes written Friday evening comes out about 7 p.m. If you're talking about going beneath headline analysis and that's the JP Morgan team even algebraic Francia Michael algebraic functions. Friday night at 8 p.m. as I write of my Friday evening what are your algebraic functions say about the American housing market. Units are grim. Price hasn't moved. So housing clearly is suffering a little bit from higher mortgage rates. And we saw that again with the new home sales that Mike just mentioned as well as almost every housing point we got last week. And we would expect that to continue for the next several months. Just given the lags between when mortgage rates go up and one home sales come down. That said we're coming off you know white hot levels. And so we're basically I think getting a little bit back and more into balance. And it's likely to be the case that inventories with even with housing home sales coming off inventories will likely remain pretty lean and home prices. We don't see home prices declining certainly. So hopefully getting a little bit more on the balance cooling off. But but not they're not two thousand six plants. Michael this question pains me to ask but are people getting too gloomy as they start to price in some sort of slowdown that allows the Fed to be patient. So the Fed I think will continue moving after obviously we're going at the June July 50 basis point moves. And I think to the point you discussed earlier electric chair Powell is an outcome based guy and he wants to actually see inflation and activity slow down. So while housing may be a leading indicator for the economy I think Powell will actually want to see things slow before he actually pulls off of the rate hike. So I do think that maybe we've gone a little bit. Maybe we're thinking the Fed's going to be too too gentle here with the economy but they really have their work cut out for them. And so I don't see them pausing after after July. What are you looking for. Michael as a sign that truly we are seeing some sort of slowdown with respect to inflation at a time when we're hearing from everyone here that the consumer is still very strong. Yeah I think he'd really want to see the labor market soften materially than we have seen. I we don't see a lot of unemployment but the jobless claims numbers that we just mentioned those can suggest we're still on a very hot labor market. So you would like to see next week not only job growth slow but perhaps vacancies come down. We'd like to see that happen in a smooth kind of linear fashion. Generally that doesn't it's not the case but that would be the ideal scenario. Have a nice slowing in job growth. One of the key sentences I've heard here Michael Crowley is central banks that really don't have reaction functions right now. They're making it up as they go. As you and Bruce Kurzman in your team piece together tomorrow's no. Do you have a mathematical structure or a geometric structure of where we're heading or as you are. Are you as blind as the central bank. Look I think it's clear that the Fed is not operating and has not been operating for anything close to a Taylor rule or any other type of formula. Chris. Reaction function. So I think that makes gauging central banks here a little bit tricky. But that's been the case for a couple of years where you know you can do your implied Taylor rule and doesn't look anything like what the Fed's been doing. So that's just a fact we're living with. What is the fact we're living with. Lisa mentions to just watch. The consumer is at the heart of the matter. So the consumer matters. I think the consumer will follow where the labor market goes. And that's why I really ISE ISE the labor market. And you can talk all about excess saving and all that. It's really labor income that's driving consumer spending. Michael that's Jamie Diamond on line 3. Pick up the phone. Say hi to Mr. Diamond for us. Michael Froelich J.P. Morgan this morning. I really can't say enough about the research effort. They do. Robert Millman inventing the weekly prospects as far as I'm concerned. And Katzman and rolling it is we are such nerds. Lisa honest to God Friday night you're sitting there with a beverage of your choice and you're doing whatever you're doing and you're like 7 p.m. is fruit is rolling out yet. Oh hi guys. How about the Red Sox this rodeo. Yeah it's literally it's like the secret. Come on. We're supposed to not seem like that's our Friday. It's for you. That is our Friday night. And I think everyone knows that you know about supply. I think it's time for us to actually interview somebody who has really been a dominant personality here at Davos and has really been incredible host of several different panels and really has a bird's eye view into the crosscurrents of many different countries in that it's one Tom Keene. What was the biggest takeaway from the panels that you took my agent sign off on. I don't know. You're gonna get royalties but what. Seriously we not talked about the retail right. Yeah. Lisa you've been great about this. Lisa drives me nuts folks. We can all in Liverpool and she's going why aren't we talking about China. Guess what. Here they're talking about China. That's this is right here. Unspoken the the medical bat when the lockout ends. What. Yeah. And the lack of visibility into that especially because the Chinese delegation is not here. They are not here because of zero Covid. They are not here to represent and give some sort of you know intel about what's going on. How do you position going forward when that could be the potential swing option for what happens with the economy. I'm going to combine two of our great bankers are wonderful conversation with Brian Moynihan which was you've got to wonder. Forget us Fed chat. Okay. He was like banker nerd wasn't you. Could you. He was like what's he to that you don't care about you. He's like well I guess not. We now see that know he's done in the mail room every morning. How do we act. Did we get him. Yeah exactly. Jake Moynihan at Bank of America very visible here. Mr. Diamond in his 44 page love note where they're just talking about hard work. And the other thing I think it's underestimated here is it every single company is going to adjust and adapt to the data. Michael for all this I'm just not as negative as others because they're going to adapt and adjust as we move forward. The one conversation I had with the money manager who oversees a lot a lot of assets said to me the most bullish thing that I heard was all the pessimism the gloom just the uniform gloom made me incredibly optimistic because frankly it seems like a slide in. But then you hear from other people saying you know perhaps not. I don't know. Sloan I'm in the camp. Jonathan Miller I think it's got like forty two rentals on the island of Manhattan. He owns three homes north of Manhattan and 6000 square. Fear him away. Lake John Miller knows real estate and he is living large with these prices right now. He's gonna come back and tell you when real estate breaks this racket they make this racket like you bought at 40 miles the black fly up and now you sell reviving. Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the first word answers could get to one of the largest technology deals of all time will turn a chip maker into a bigger force in software. Broadcom has agreed to buy cloud computing company BMW for about sixty one billion dollars. The transaction represents about a 44 percent premium to BMW valuation before May 20th. That was the last trading day before Bloomberg reported potential takeover talks. Today Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will deliver a long awaited speech outlining U.S. strategy towards China. But there's unlikely to be any bold new direction and bailed. Instead Blinken will explain existing policies. The U.S. strategy includes investing in democracy and innovation at home bolstering allies and competing with China on military and economic issues. Russia has cut interest rates for the third time in a little over a month. The central bank is hoping to stem a rally in the ruble and slash its benchmark to 14 percent from 14 percent to 11 percent. Despite the sweeping sanctions imposed on Russia the ruble has soared to the highest level since 2018. Surging exports and capital controls have hit demand for foreign exchange and Ali Baba reported a better than expected 9 percent rise in revenue in the March quarter. Chinese consumers turned to online malls for basic needs during Covid lockdowns. Ali Baba is a barometer for consumer sentiment because of its dominance in Asia's largest retail arena. The company is grappling with intensifying competition and mounting economic uncertainty at global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake. Powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than one hundred and twenty countries embers could get to. This has been bad. The housing market has been chronically under supply. It is a key challenge is a challenge that there used to be a housing platform around. That platform was dismantled during the Great Recession and it hasn't been completely restore lights out at Davos. NAYLOR Richardson chief economist at ADP was fired up about the American economy. That was a valuable conversation absolutely. Talking about the realities on the ground of people who are struggling with inflation and the housing situation which is getting worse across the nation in terms of affordability. I was looking over here to see if the goats are gone. It's the Swiss Army is helping us out and they're tearing down as we turn our last section in Davos. And of course as we know we can't afford anything Davos to buy or rent. We might as well talk to Joe Miller or eat. Jonathan Miller joins us president and CEO of Miller Samuel to tell us when the housing is going to crack in America. John Miller you would suggest we're starting to see an ad. Is that because people can't afford the rent they can't afford the mortgages. Yeah I think we're we're approaching a peak. One of the I think rising mortgage rates are probably one of the best things that is happening to housing in many ways. Low mortgage rates are making housing less affordable because it has obliterated supply whether in the rental market or the purchase market. We're seeing I cover about 40 different housing markets across the U.S. and the rate the market share bidding worse right now is anywhere from 25 to 75 percent of all closed sales activity. That is not a sustainable condition. We need more inventory. Tell us about the mortgage rate right now. Are the people that did short term mortgages at lower lower lower rates. Are they already in trouble. Given that we now have higher and higher rates. So it clearly places more pressure on them. Given how much prices have grown up over the last year looking at you know depending on the metric around 20 percent this next year meaning 20 22 more like 9 to 10 percent and probably 3 to 4 percent the following year even with the rate hikes. So all this is because there is limited supply. There is a firm underpinning that. You know there's this isn't financial engineering exercise that we had during the bubble. Credit conditions are still tighter than historic norms. And and actually that's a that's really driving pushing some people into the rental market which is making it even less affordable. Jonathan how much is this a story of private investors and investment firms buying up a lot of the single family homes and removing a lot of supply. ISE I think that certainly it's a factor you know and it becomes more apparent when you're already in a situation right now where inventory is about a third is one third of what it should be for sort of a normal stable market. But I also think it's overhyped as a contributing factor. I think the bottom line is that rates have been too low for too long. And you have to think of inventory as this living breathing organism that takes time to recover. And it has it hasn't had a chance. And that's causing price growth. That's just you know like I said we've never seen. And Jonathan this is the distinction as people talk about 5 plus percent mortgage rates and the idea that the actual number of sales is slowing the prices are going up. When do we see prices peaked on that and how high do mortgage rates have to go. So I I think that pricing isn't going to it. So I think it's more about the rate of growth that we're seeing. You know we've been seeing in the last year a rocket ship basically straight up. I think we're going to see a moderation. You know look affordability has fallen by half since the end of the year. Mortgage rates are up 2 percent. I mean that's a that's a rapid sudden change and that's going to slow down transactions. What's interesting is before the rate growth sales are already falling but it was because inventory had collapsed and was restraining sales activity. Now it's a combination of both. Jonathan Miller too short to visit. Thank you so much for joining us this morning with Miller Samuel here and as we come back to New York. I mean we were in a housing point now. It's absolutely extraordinary. We've got to close the loop here on a number of items that we have first of all on the goat farm. There were some serious people thinking I was doing triple leverage gone. Yeah I know. And I just you know I just decided the legal fees alone were just too much. I decided we should go to triple leverage sheep farm because there are sheep. Not go. I think they were desperate enough for. No. Sorry. They are sheep because they are chewing grass. Now this is what happens. There they are. You know there are those look like sheep from here. Let Mr. Bannister sheep. Baa. No I can't do that as well. Another big item we have is we have people here speaking English. And I can't understand a word they say. Alisa's here. She's been helping us all week. And I didn't even know she was Australian. So on the bridge I got a lecture. And it's just simple. It's not Milburn like we say now. It's Mel. I out. Bill. I can't hear you say. But she really she said I came close. It is. I know. I know. Say I think you're going to be saying that for the rest of the year. Honestly I think that this has been a really interesting Davos. I have been actually surprised at how serious people have been in terms of getting things done. And it's not just about paying lip service to different pet projects. It's definitely trying to roll up your sleeves right up with where the financing is going to be. Of course all of us have maximum guilt about being away. Just text like every day. And I'm just happy in a way. So you got to buy loot when you go home. And thank you. This really helped us structured credit. Dad e-mailed in and he's agreed with me. He's just Brittany Melville. It's just like you're not going to be buying that on the way home. So is that the reason why you're mentioning this to basically excuse why that will not be visible around the forum at Davos. No because it is not any cheaper to say. But no it is not as all I would say. I honestly I I've been really impressed at how things have gone. And now we're gonna head back to New York City. We're going to go back we're in London tomorrow. Looking forward to that. And then you know with balance of power and with Joe Matthews doing over it sound on Bloomberg Radio we go back to a really sad story. Yeah. In America horrendous story that I just sensitizing people unfortunately to what happens in schools and honestly that schools prepare for this. We need to say thank you to the hundreds of that have helped us. Queen Victoria helped us. Did Anastasia help us this year. Yep. And the sheep farmers. Yeah. OK thank you to all. Thank you to all.

No schedule data available.

'Bloomberg Surveillance Simulcast' Full Show 5/26/2022

Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz have the economy and the markets "under surveillance" as they cover the latest in finance, economics and investment, and talk with the leading voices shaping the conversation around world markets. This show is simulcast worldwide on Bloomberg Television and Radio. (Source: Bloomberg)

More From Bloomberg Surveillance
All episodes and clips

Bloomberg Markets
"Bloomberg Markets" is focused on bringing you the most important global business and breaking markets news and information as it happens.
More episodes and clips