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  • 00:00Do you think we have done the froth we've repriced markets sufficiently for a slowdown that everybody thinks will come. Frankly in the near term review that market volatility is likely to continue because market investors continue to actually price in actually trying to see a clear path as to where the Fed is heading to and also with regards to the Fed going forward. Right now markets are concerned about a over hawkish fat and whether the Fed might actually tighten a bit too fast or too quick and tip the economy into recession. I'll bet you is that the economy will likely be going into a recession and that the Fed will actually try and transfer passes utmost to engineer a soft landing but will need to continue to see how the supply chain disruption evolve and also how the inflation numbers going forward will be. But right now we see that the equity sell off so far has been caused by the secured and expected inflation especially the recent numbers from the state's. I mean the duration of the S & P sell off has been ongoing since the first week of January running in about in excess of four months. The NASDAQ drop was the biggest since June 11 of 2020 just in terms of what exactly you'd be looking for for signals. The market's life team has been doing this analysis and they're wondering you know at what point would you say that the S & P 500 has hit a conclusion in terms of the downturn. And indeed right now we catch you to focus more on the trajectory of the inflation reading going forward. And if we look at actually the Fed tries to balance like the job growth and also the inflation outlook. But right now we see from last week the jump. No actually I don't expect it. Indeed there are issues with like supply supply labor supply. But in the near term we think that that will actually affect aggregate demand or labor demand. At least it won't be reflected until the second half of this year. So going forward I think the market will continue to focus more on the inflation side. And especially after seeing for example last week a double digit wage growth. This will also be reflected all in the inflation readings going forward and how the market reflects. I said we've got another downgrade this morning come through from Standard Chartered on the China growth story. I think five percent to four point one percent. Quite dramatic. So this is building consensus that you're going to get a movement in the loan prime rate tomorrow home much more easing. What is the most effective form of easing that would bolster the investment case for JP Morgan asset management in China. Is it more triple or is it LP or what is that driver for you. And now Bill right now we need more effective policy easing and indeed the longtime right. It's also what we're pricing in for tomorrow. And this is a key signal to the markets that they are easing in hand. And also for example we see that so far they have been deployed off example tax rebates and also deductions for culprits. But one thing is that the fight is actually quite fleeting given that so far a lot of culprits have been lost making during lockdowns. So we need more drag for example cash handouts from central government all to something more concrete measures so that consumer and also market sentiment can be revived. I was talking at the beginning of the show about how bonds had become attractive again to quite a few investors and that for a change not all asset classes sold off at the same time. How interesting do you find the bond value proposition that your buyer of us stands at just under 3 percent. Right now actually at the beginning of the year we have been advocating like a bias on equity. But right now we actually see an interesting opportunity to look more into fixed income especially if sample into investment grade give them how the credit fundamentals actually quite healthy and actually credit default rates are likely to remain low for the rest of this year. In terms of investment grade we see that it actually provide a downside protection to slowing growth momentum and also continue to provide a steady income stream. And as for light high yield credit we see that it provides exposure to the song sentiment and also can actually help manage a portfolio fall to a T. So there's actually an interesting opportunity to look more into the credit side especially in fact when great credit.
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May 19th, 2022, 8:27 AM GMT+0000

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