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00:00The big issue everyone's discussing is can the Fed bring about what is called a soft landing I guess that's to say avoid a recession. As you know Bloomberg did a survey of 72 economists that show their economies are getting more and more skeptical. It's up to twenty seven point five percent in April before it was 20 percent. If you go two months back it was 15 percent. Look I think the risks are going way up. Twenty seven and a half percent this year because next year is riskier than this year translates to something getting towards two thirds for a two year period. And I'd be a bit above that in my judgment. Here's the key fact. We have never had a moment in the United States when inflation was above 4 and unemployment was below 4 when we didn't have a recession two years within the next two years. So we may pull it off. And certainly it's hugely important that we succeed in pulling it off. But the combination of overheating followed by ISE policy delay followed by supply shocks means I think it's a very difficult set of challenges. And recession in the next couple of years is clearly more likely than not. Some of the banks are starting to move in that direction. Your survey moved in that direction and I suspect that's how the consensus will evolve.

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Summers Sees Consensus Building on U.S. Recession Call

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers says that the consensus among economists will increasingly fall in line with the U.S. tipping into a recession next year. "Recession in the next couple of years is clearly more likely than not. Some of the banks are starting to move in that direction, (Bloomberg's) survey moved in that direction, and I suspect that's how the consensus will evolve,” Summers says on Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. (Source: Bloomberg)

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