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00:00What do you need now from the Bank of International Settlements and the major central bankers such as Chairman Powell. What do they need to do to assist your nation. Thank you very much for inviting me. And thank you very much for the Globe for supporting the Ukraine against this Russian aggression. Definitely good days today. We are very happy that major advanced countries and also international financial organizations support us. And also we tried to do our best to impose its most harsh sanctions to Russia in order to in order to increase the cost of this invasion on the Ukraine. Coming back to your question regarding VIX I am. So far we try to persuade their managers the leaders of this of this organization that in the current environment Russia can not be allowed to be their member of this respected organization in their creation with the weather with this such military military aggression and direct invasion into the territory of Ukraine. That's why we approached this organization with a request to suspend the membership. All four there are Shery Ahn in that. And we see in now financial and the. Deputy Governor do you know are you aware of the IMF and whether it's helping the Russians understand the sanctions and work around the sanctions. Are they seeking advice from them. What's your interpretation of what's happening between those multilateral institutions at the moment and how they're actually working with Russia day by day. My understanding that that the moment stalled the active cooperation between the international financial organization and the Russian financial institution is suspended. We hope that this doesn't let only a fourth step. We hope that you know in the car at the Wildman that you know their membership for a Russian financial organization like Central Bank like minister of Finance and so long so common can not be allowed. So all this respected or respected in the past organization like Central Bank of Russia. So nowadays they drive to or do you know to finance to support their terroristic state which we consider the Russian. The state is now. So we don't think of that in the current form. And there's a zoo reasonable to have any any operations in your relations with their Russian authorities your country. Deputy Governor I'm just wondering we all see these numbers huge numbers being thrown around. Have you got to read. Have you done any studies on how much aid you actually need. Do you have a number in mind of what you need right now. So far we try to keep our financial system under control. But again our preliminary estimates showed that on a daily basis our GDP and now only cough of there you know of the normal GDP amount but the peace peaceful conditions. So definitely we'll put that huge strain on our public finances on. Also on the Resource Central Bank definitely we need their support of the global community to keep a lot to keep our finances viable to support us. Now our fight against Russia. But it's very difficult now. You know I'll do a call and call when the beating on soft dollar is how many are probably hundreds of billions of dollars. We will meet again after the war too. Ah ah. Do do do do do do do restore our economy. So your Vonnie Quinn. How do you even begin to do it. Normal central banking in such an abnormal time. How do you even assess the economic damage and even hold meetings at a time when things are so in flux. You know actually that was that you already at eight years from the start of their military conflict with the Russian Federation and definitely we had some business you e.g. Paul Allen Scarlet Fu deal in the case of their direct military invasion. All the time we consider it such scenarios asked to be of low probability but unfortunately this low probability realized. Nevertheless. Nevertheless. So we I suppose that we do more or less preparatory even for such for such a scenario. And to me continue to do all our work in these conditions as much as possible. Sergei you wrote a paper in another time and place 2019 on monetary transmission. I want you to tell me what the currency will do not only the river now but what ruble will do as ruble weakens. Do you just assume that Russia bombs itself back to a barter economy. You know definitely. They wanted to run through monetary transmission. You described in my paper was not to. So we don't want to play these games and the like for Russian central bands does and we don't think they're the key point is to read. Nowadays it's an effective instrument. So we just suspended it to conceive that our monetary policy is conducted by that inflation targeting regime. And we're suspended to consider our policy rate as the main instrument. So now we are. We'll see. So we do we manage our financial sector. We manage our economy. We are one entry instrument instruments almost. I mean you as an economist. So are you. What do you make of the financial warfare that Western nations have really been waging to try to isolate Russia. Do you think that when we look back in history it will be considered a success. You know probably the unique situation nowadays about the unique situation is that you know you hit the Western Wall. How will this hit the economy which used to function in completely normal market conditions. I mean market conditions normal market conditions in the economy sounds. And also for the financial system we used to live in the Soviet Union. But what was also is alleged from the Western Wall at that time you know was that they were all that economy that the economy was you know was built from the beginning on completely different grounds. Nowadays I suppose that this shift to the economy which was really integrated in the global economic and financial world. So it's really massive. And frankly speaking I expect really catastrophic consequences for the Russian economy and for the Russian financial system. Deputy Governor I want to flesh on something important not just for your economy but for the rest of the world. And I think it might help get people's attention. We've gone through the stats on this program. The Russian Ukraine supply more than a quarter of the world's wheat exports one fifth of the corn sales and 80 percent of the sunflower oil can't goes at some point. Deputy Governor the farmers need to get back out into the fields and get back to work. Can you help us understand the amount of devastation we could see to those goods if those farmers can't get back into the fields and work in the next several months. Yes so that is a very important question for the global economy for oil for the food security globally. Yes. Now Ukraine then also Russia and some extent that a very very important supply ourselves. Their wheat. They're off their guard or their oil seeds and or sunflower oil to the global markets. And I I hope that I hope that it's a military invasion will be suspended very fast and our five will be able to to cover the normal Hang Seng agricultural year this year. Otherwise ISE I am afraid that their friends that the global consequences could be very very very very very tough. Could you help people understand what that would look like deputy governor if this wasn't down with quickly enough and this went into the summer. I don't know. I don't like I thought I'm not able to provide you any estimates at the moment that you know currently the year we'd we try to do our best to stick. You are there to ensure the function of the payments in the country to secure a financial continuity. This is why. So probably we will we will be we have to do such calculations to understand. The roll. We'll leave to result their supply or for this staff from capital from Ukraine.

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Ukraine Central Bank's Nikolaychuk on BIS, Policy, Wheat

National Bank of Ukraine Deputy Governor Sergiy Nikolaychuk discusses his country's call for the Bank for International Settlements to terminate the membership of Russia's central bank, explains the central bank's decision to delay its planned policy meeting, and outlook for this year's wheat harvest on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

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