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00:00JONATHAN: LOOKING FOR A BOUNCE BACK THIS MONDAY MORNING. YOUR EQUITY MARKETS UP A LITTLE MORE THAN 1% ON THE S & P. "THE COUNTDOWN TO THE OPEN" STARTS RIGHT NOW. > > EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO GET SET FOR THE START OF U.S. TRADING. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG: THE OPEN" WITH JONATHAN FERRO. JONATHAN: WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE. THE FED STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE. > > THERE'S A LOT WE DO NOT KNOW ABOUT THE OMA CRON VARIANT. > > WHAT WE DO KNOW DOES NOT NECESSARILY DERAIL THINGS. > > THE SCENARIO NOW THE FED HAS TO TAPER RIGHT AWAY. THE FED WILL BE RAISING RATES BY JUNE OR JULY. I THINK THAT SCENARIO IS LESS LIKELY. > > THERE IS SOME RISK SOME OF THE MARKET IMPLIED HIKES WILL NEED TO COME OUT. > > INVESTORS HAVE TO COUNT TO 10 BEFORE MOVING AGAIN. > > WE ARE REMINDED THAT POLICYMAKERS ARE MORE FRAGILE IN THE DIRECTION OF ROVE. -- OF GROWTH. JONATHAN: LET'S GET THE CONVERSATION WITH RAY PETERS, -- WITH GREG PETERS, JACK PAPP -- JACK CAFFREY, AND EMILY HILL. ALL OF A SUDDEN WORRY ABOUT ANOTHER LOCKDOWN. CAN YOU COMMENT ON THAT, THE MARKET CONDITIONS THAT HAVE SWITCHED SO EASILY FROM ONE EXTREME TO THE OTHER? EMILY: THE NEWS WAS ANNOUNCED RIGHT BEFORE BLACK FRIDAY, WHICH REGULARLY HAS VERY LOW VOLUME. I THINK IT IS DIFFICULT TO DRAW A CONCLUSION FROM THE PLUNGE IN THE MARKET ON FRIDAY. WHAT IS SURPRISING IS ANOTHER VARIANT HAS NOT EMERGED SOONER. I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO DRAW DRASTIC CONCLUSIONS FROM MARKET MOVEMENT ON ONE OF THE LOWER VOLUME TRADING DAYS OF THE YEAR. JONATHAN: IT IS SO DIFFICULT TO DRAW CONCLUSIONS EVEN IF IT WAS NOT ON THE LOWEST VOLUME TRADING DAY. WE DO NOT KNOW HOW CONTAGIOUS THIS NEW VARIANT IS, HOW SEVERE IT IS, OR IF VACCINES STAND UP TO IT. WILL BE A COUPLE OF WEEKS BEFORE WE CAN DRAW ANY CONCLUSIONS. WHAT YOU DO IN BETWEEN? GREG: I THINK YOU SHOULD JUST BUCKLE DOWN. WE ARE OPERATING IN THIS EXISTENTIAL WORLD CONTROLLED BY COVID MUTATIONS. TO ME THIS IS NOT A SURPRISE. THE COMPLICATING FACTOR, I THINK IT IS OK TO SAY WHAT YOU KNOW AND WHAT YOU DO NOT KNOW. TO MEET IT IS A VOLATILITY -- TO ME IT IS A VOLATILITY EVENT. JONATHAN: WE HAVE LITTLE CHOICE BUT TO SAY WE DO NOT KNOW AND WE DO NOT KNOW A LOT. JACK: I THINK A LITTLE HUMILITY IS APPROPRIATE. AT THE SAME TIME FOR A YEAR AND A HALF THIS IS BEEN A SERIES OF FINANCIAL MARKETS THAT HAVE REMAINED SENSITIVE TO ANY NEWS WE RECEIVE WITH THE WORSENING OF VIRUS RELATED CONDITIONS. WE ENTERED THIS WITH A PRETTY REASONABLE DEGREE OF EXPECTATIONS ACROSS FINANCIAL MARKETS THAT SAY YOU COULD LIQUIDITY FROM BLACK FRIDAY AND WE STILL SO MUCH WE DO NOT KNOW. OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WE ARE GOING TO GET DATA AND FIND OUT HOW THE CONSUMER RESPONDED AND GET MORE ECONOMIC DATA AND ULTIMATELY WE WIND UP WITH MORE DATA THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK THAT SUGGESTS IS THE BROAD TREND OF THE ECONOMY STILL POSITIVE OR NOT? MAYBE WE'LL GET SOME MEDICAL DATA TO DALLAS WHETHER CASH TO TELL US WHETHER WE NEED TO RESET -- TO TELL US WHETHER WE NEED TO REASSESS THOSE ASSESSMENTS. JONATHAN: GIVEN WHAT WE DO NOT KNOW AT THIS POINT, WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR MONETARY POLICY. CITI SAID INCREASED LOCKDOWN MEASURES LOOK LIKELY THAN THIS MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CENTRAL BANK MEETINGS IN THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER. IT IS LIKELY THE PANDEMIC WILL OVERRIDE ALL OTHER CONSIDERATIONS OF CENTRAL BANKERS IN THE SHORT TERM. EMILY, DOES THIS RESONATE WITH YOU? WE HAVE BEEN TEEING UP THIS BIG FED MEETING IN DECEMBER. I WONDER HOW BAKE THAT STILL IS. EMILY: I THINK THE EMERGENCE OF THIS NEW VARIANT MAKES STAGFLATION MORE OF A RISK. IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT THE MARKET IS PRICING IN TERMS OF THE 10 YEAR OR IN TERMS OF FED RATE HIKES, IT DROPPED FROM EXPECTING ABOUT THREE HIKES IN 2022 DOWN TO TWO. PART OF THAT IS THE FED IS IN A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A JAM THAN THEY WERE IN BEFORE. I THINK THIS REDUCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING THE VELOCITY OF THE TAPER, WHICH I THINK WOULD HAVE BEEN A POSSIBILITY, I PROBABLY WOULD'VE EXPECTED THAT IF YOU ASKED ME A WEEK AGO. JONATHAN: WE HEARD FROM GOVERNOR WALLER, WE HEARD FROM RICHARD CLARIDA, PRESIDENT DAILY AND BOSTICK AS WELL. THE ATLANTA FED PRESIDENT HAD THIS TO SAY ON FOX. > > I AM OPEN TO ACCELERATING THE PACE OF OUR SLOW DOWN IN PURCHASES, MAINLY SO THAT WE ARE READY AND WE HAVE THAT OPTIONALITY. FOR ME, EARLY SECOND QUARTER, LATE FIRST QUARTER OF 2022 ARE IN PLAY FOR REASONABLE ALTERNATIVES WHEN WE MIGHT STOP OUR PURCHASES IF THE ECONOMIC MOMENTUM CONTINUES AS IT HAS. JONATHAN: GREG PETERS, IS THIS STILL IN PLAY? GREG: I THINK SO. I THINK IT IS CLEAR THAT CENTRAL BANKERS WANT TO REMOVE ACCOMMODATION. THIS IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. WHAT THEY ARE MOST FOCUSED ON IS NOT THE VIRUS IT FELT BUT INFLATION. THERE IS INTENSE POLITICAL PRESSURE AROUND THE INFLATION FRONT. THEY ARE FOCUSED ON THAT AS A RESULT. THEY COMPLETELY ABANDONED THIS FIAT OF REGIMES. TO ME IT IS STILL VERY MUCH IN PLAY. IT IS A COMPLICATING FACTOR. SHOULD THEY INCLUDED IN THE ASSESSMENT? ABSOLUTELY. WILL THEY? PROBABLY NOT. JONATHAN: HOW DURABLE IS THE FED PUT IN THE BACKDROP YOU DESCRIBE? GREG: I DO NOT THEY FIT IS DURABLE AT ALL. I THINK IT IS A VERY DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENT. YOU WILL NOT HAVE THE SAME ABILITY TO HAVE CENTRAL BANK THRUSTS, THE FISCAL THRUST. IF THERE IS A WORSE SITUATION THAN INITIALLY BELIEVED, THAN THERE IS NOT A LOT OF WIGGLE ROOM ON THE CENTRAL BANK SIDE AND ON THE FISCAL SIDE. I THINK THAT MATTERS. I AM NOT CONVINCED THERE IS THIS PUT, AT LEAST ONE THAT IS NOT STRUCK CLOSE TO MARKET LEVELS. JONATHAN: PETER TCHIR AGREES WITH YOU. THIS IS WHAT HE HAD TO SAY OVER THE WEEKEND. "WE FACE THE SOFTWARE IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT THE FED WILL DO. NO GUARANTEE OF EASY MONEY GOING FORWARD. THE PATH SEEMS TO BE FEWER BOND PURCHASES AND RATE HIKES ACROSS THE GLOBE WHICH CHANGES THE BY THE DIP FUNCTIONALITY. " JACK, CAN I GET YOUR REACTION TO THAT. THE BY THE DIP, ARE WE QUESTIONING THAT? JACK: I DO NOT THINK WE HAVE QUESTIONED BUY THE DIP YET BECAUSE THIS IS A FED THAT WILL REMAIN ON THE REACTIVE SIDE. THEY WANT MORE DATA AND SAY WE WILL BE GUIDED BY THE DATA. THEY JUST GOT A BOOST OF DATA VERY UNCERTAIN RELATIVE TO THE PLANS THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT. I DO NOT THINK ANYTHING I HAVE HEARD WOULD SUGGEST THEY NEED TO RESPOND FASTER. I WOULD'VE THOUGHT WE MOVED AWAY FROM LOCKDOWNS AND THEN LAST WEEK YOU BEGIN HEARING MORE ABOUT LOCKDOWNS AND THE CORE EUROPEAN MARKETS. I WOULD LOOK TO, I THINK THE FED REMAINS REACTIVE, I THINK THEY WILL FIND REASON TO BE SLOWER. I THINK THE CHALLENGE FROM THAT COULD BE SLOWER NOW MEANS FASTER LATER, AND THAT WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND FOR US TO WORRY ABOUT. I COME BACK, IF WE LOOK AT THE IMPLIED VOLATILITY IN THE TREASURY MARKET, FIXED INCOME MARKETS WOULD BE SUGGESTING THEY DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE FED MIGHT BE GOING ANYWAY BASED ON THE RECOGNITION THAT IMPLIED VOLATILITY REMAINS HIGH, MUCH MORE THAN EQUITY VOLATILITY. JONATHAN: YIELDS LOWER THIS MORNING. ON 10 UP BY EIGHT TO 1.55. WHEN I ASKED THAT QUESTION TO GREG AND JACK, THEY HAVE DIFFERENT OPINIONS, CAN I GET YOURS, SPECIFICALLY ON HOW DURABLE THIS PUT IS? EMILY: I FRANKLY DO NOT THINK THE BUY THE DIP IS OVER. I THINK THE RETAIL TRADING FACTOR IS SIGNIFICANT IN ALL OF THE LIQUIDITY IN THE MARKET WILL SEE A REAL CUSHION TO FUTURE VOLATILITY. WITH THE FED, I ACTUALLY AGREE THAT INFLATION IS TRANSITORY. IT DEPENDS ON YOUR DEFINITION OF WHAT TRANSITORY IS. I DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO AFFECT THEIR LONG-TERM APPROACH. I BELIEVE I ANSWERED YOUR QUESTION. JONATHAN: JUST ABOUT. DO NOT WORRY ABOUT THAT. THAT IS THE EQUITY VIEW. GIVE ME THE CREDIT VIEW. CERTAINLY NOT AS WIDE AS THEY MIGHT BE GIVEN HISTORICAL MEASURES, BUT STILL LOOK AT THE FED MOVE. HOW DO YOU RESPOND TO IT? GREG: I THINK IT IS STEADY AS SHE GOES. WHAT IS AN IMPORTANT POINT TO MAKE AROUND WHAT THE FED REACTION MEANS, FED REACTION TODAY MEANS NOT TIGHTENING, WHEREAS BEFORE IT WAS EASING. I THINK THAT MATTERS A LOT. THE CREDIT MARKETS ARE RESPONDING TO THAT. YOU HAVE SEEN CREDIT SPREADS WIDEN FROM THE TYPES WE SAW POST CYCLE, SO I THINK IT IS GOING TO BE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE IT IS GOING TO BE VOLATILE. SPREADS WILL REMAIN QUIETER. THE TENDENCY WILL BE TO BOUNCE AROUND. I DO NOT SEE TIGHTENING GOING FORWARD. IT IS THIS CLASSIC ROLLING PARODY TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT. THE VAULTS ARE LOW AND CREDIT ROUNDS ARE QUITE GOOD. JONATHAN: CAN HE WALK ME THROUGH MARKET CONDITIONS AND WHAT -- CAN YOU WALK ME THROUGH WHAT CONDITIONS WERE LIKE IN FRIDAY'S VERY SORT -- VERY SHORT SESSION? GREG: NOT VERY ACTIVE AT ALL. I THINK A LOT OF PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS WERE TRYING TO TAKE THE DAY OFF. I THINK THAT EXACERBATED THE PRICE ACTION. LIQUIDITY WAS VERY THIN. IT IS HARD TO GET A TRUE READ ON THE REACTION. I THINK THAT WAS ON THE PLAYBOOK FOR MOST PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS WHERE FRIDAY WAS JUST WATCH AND DID NOT REALLY REACT. THIS WEEK WE WILL GET A BETTER SENSE OF THE MARKET REACTION TO THE DATA, NOT ONLY ECONOMIC DATA BUT THE VIRUS DATA AS WELL. JONATHAN: WE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT IN JUST A MOMENT. COMING UP, MARKETS ON EDGE WITH THE OMICRON VARIANT TAKING CENTER STAGE. > > IT THROWS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE MIX. WE WERE LOOKING ON PRE-GOOD RECOVERY, CONTINUED STRONG GROWTH IN THE NEXT YEAR. JONATHAN: A BIG WEEK OF ECONOMIC DATA COMING UP. THAT IS NEXT. > > I TALKED TO THE FED ABOUT A RANGE OF THINGS, MONETARY POLICY AND INFLATION. I AM CONFIDENT THE APPOINTEES I'VE MADE WILL REFLECT THAT CONCERN. JONATHAN: INVESTORS FACING ANOTHER BIG WEEK FOR THE MARKETS CONCLUDING WITH THE PAYROLLS REPORT THIS FRIDAY. THE TEAM AT DEUTSCHE BANK SANG THE ECONOMIC CALENDAR IS PACKED WITH IMPORTANT DATA AS WELL AS FED SPEAK GOING INTO THE DECEMBER 15 FOMC MEETING. FOR MORE ON THE WEEK AHEAD, HERE IS ABBY. ABIGAIL: IT IS GOING TO BE A BIG ONE FOR THE FED AND ECONOMIC DATA. JAY POWELL TODAY SPEAKING AT A FED NEW YORK INNOVATION EVENT AND TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY SPEAKING WITH THE SECRETARY THE TREASURY JANET YELLEN BEFORE CONGRESS TESTIFYING ON THE CARES RELIEF ACT. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THEY MENTION THE NEW COVID VARIANT? WHAT WILL BE THE OMICRON EFFECT IF ANYTHING? MARKETS PRICING IN A SLOWER OVERALL PACE OF HIKES FOR 2022, NOW JUST TWO HIKES AS OPPOSED TO THREE. FOUR OVERALL BY DECEMBER 23. ISM DATA MANUFACTURING OUT BY THURSDAY, THE SURVEY LOOKING FOR A READING OF 61. ANYTHING ABOVE 50 IS EXPANSION. ON FRIDAY, 530 1000 JOBS EXPECTED TO BE ADDED. VERY INTERESTING IS FOR OPEC-PLUS, THEY'VE DELAYED THEIR MEETING BY A COUPLE OF DAYS. OIL VERY VOLATILE, DOWN 7%, HITTING LONG-TERM SUPPORT. THE QUESTION IS WILL THOSE LONG-TERM BUYERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OIL. ALL DOWN TO THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THIS NEW VARIANT. JONATHAN: HAVE YOU SEEN THE PAYROLLS ESTIMATES FOR FRIDAY? 800,000 AT THE TOP END DOWN THE 5000 AT THE LOW END. -- DOWN TO 350,000 AT THE LOW END. THAT RANGE IS SO WIDE. ABIGAIL: AND IT SHOWS YOU THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ALL THE DIFFERENT IMPACTS OF THE ECONOMY WE ARE LOOKING AT RELATIVE TO THE VIRUS. INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER IT IS IN THE MIDDLE, WHERE IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER IT WAS 531, JUST 4000 BEING SURVEYED FOR OCTOBER. WILL IT BE FLAT OR SOMEWHERE TOWARDS LOW OR THE HIGH? JONATHAN: 800,000 IS THE ESTIMATE OUT OF JEFFRIES. 375,000 AT THE LOW END. THE TEAM OF GOLDMAN SAY THE FOLLOWING ABOUT CALCULATING THE IMPACT OF THIS NEW COVID VARIANT. THE UPSHOT IS OMICRON COULD HAVE SIZABLE GROWTH AFFECTS, BUT THE RANGE OF MEDICAL AND ECONOMIC OUTCOMES REMAIN WIDE. GIVEN THIS, WE ARE NOT MAKING A MICRON RELATED CHANGES -- OMICRON RELATED CHANGES TO OUR POLICY FORECASTS UNTIL THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE SCENARIOS HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT CLEARER. GREG, 375,000 AT THE LOW END, 800,000 AT THE HIGH END, WIRE WE STILL FINDING THIS SO DIFFICULT TO GET RIGHT, TO FORECAST THE ECONOMIC DATA IN AMERICA? GREG: I THINK IT IS EMBLEMATIC OF THE UNCERTAINTY AND REPRESENTS -- I KEEP GOING BACK TO THIS ADAGE WHERE I THINK IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET A TRUE HANDLE ON THE UNDERLYING ECONOMY , BOTH THE LABOR MARKET AND INFLATION. TO ME THIS REPRESENTS THE WIDE RANGE OF EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY. I DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE. I THINK WE WILL CONTINUE TO OPERATE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE DATA, IT IS UNCLEAR, AND WE ARE IN THIS UNCERTAIN WORLD. I THINK WHAT COMPLICATES THIS FACTOR IS THAT THE FED AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKS ARE TRYING TO ASSESS AND MAKE CHANGES BASED ON THE LACK OF CLARITY. JONATHAN: THIS IS WHY IT IS SO DIFFICULT. I WILL GO TO THE QUOTE FROM GOLDMAN. THE RANGE OF MEDICAL AND ECONOMIC OUTCOMES REMAINS UNUSUALLY WIDE. WOULD THAT BE TRUE WITH OR WITHOUT THE NEWS OF LAST WEEK? EMILY: THAT WOULD DEFINITELY BE TRUE. ONE OF THE THINGS I KEEP TELLING MY CLIENTS IS I THINK THE BEST HISTORICAL PARALLEL IS POST-WORLD WAR II. WE WENT THROUGH A WAR WITH THE PANDEMIC, AND SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED WHEN THE TROOPS WERE COMING BACK FROM WORLD WAR II, THERE WAS THIS MASSIVE PUBLIC DEBT, YOU HAD LABOR FORCE DISLOCATION TRYING TO REMATCH RETURNING TROOPS INTO THE LABOR FORCE. YOU HAD SIGNIFICANT SUPPLY CHAIN SHORTAGES AND TEMPORARY RISING INFLATION. THAT IS THE KIND OF ENVIRONMENT WE ARE IN NOW. THIS PANDEMIC WAS A CATACLYSM FOR THE ECONOMY. IT IS NOT SURPRISING THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE JOBS NUMBERS. I WOULD EXPECT THEM ROUGHLY FLAT, THE MIDDLE OF THAT RANGE. I AGREE WITH GREG THAT IS A DIFFICULT CALL TO MAKE IN THE CIRCUMSTANCES. JONATHAN: ULTIMATELY TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THE 1970'S? IS THAT YOUR MESSAGE? EMILY: DEFINITELY. THIS IS NOT THE 1970'S. JONATHAN: WE ARE NOT RIPPED -- JACK, DO YOU AGREE? JACK: WE ARE NOT REPEATED IN THE 1970'S BUT I THINK THERE WILL BE ECHOES. WE HAVE CENTRAL BANKS INDICATING A GREATER DUDE AGREE OF COMFORT WITH HIRING NATION. -- WITH HIGHER INFLATION. WE COULD LOOK TO A VARIETY OF DECADES AND TRY TO FIND SOMETHING THAT RHYMES. YOU HAVE NOT ASKED, BUT I WILL TRY TO GO THERE ANYWAY. I LOOK AT THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBER AND WONDER IF WE WILL START TALKING ABOUT LABOR SHORTAGES STARTING TO PUT AN UPSIDE LIMIT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH HIRING ACTIVITY WE CAN EXPERIENCE AND TO WHAT EXTENT WE HAVE A LABOR MISMATCH BETWEEN WHAT PEOPLE WANT VERSUS WHAT COMPANIES WANT, AND WHAT COMPANIES WANT VERSUS WHAT LABOR MIGHT FEEL IT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT. I THINK WE'LL START SPENDING MORE TIME THINKING ABOUT THE QUIT RATE BEING AS IMPORTANT AS THE HIRING RATE. TO SOME EXTENT WE WILL NEED TO START SEEING MORE QUITS TO SEE JOBS ON THE OTHER END. JONATHAN: PART WAY THERE ALREADY? JACK: I THOUGHT WE WERE GETTING THERE VERY MUCH, BUT NOW WE HAVE THIS NEW FACTOR IN TERMS OF TO WHAT EXTENT PEOPLE MIGHT CHOOSE TO PUT THE BRAKES ON THEIR PLANS. I WILL COME BACK TO THE DATA. I WANT THE DATA TO TELL ME WHAT WE ARE SEEING AND TO CONFIRM WHAT IT IS THE FINANCIAL MARKET BELIEVES IS GOING TO HAPPEN. THE LAST TWO MONTHS THE ECONOMIC DATA HAS BEEN BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED AND I THINK THAT HAS BEEN A POSITIVE UNDERPINNING TO WHERE PEOPLE START TALKING ABOUT EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND THE IDEA OF CASH FLOWS INTO NEXT YEAR. JONATHAN: WE WILL FINISH ON THE DATA. GREG PETERS, I WONDER HOW SENSITIVE THIS MARKET WILL BE TO INCOMING ECONOMIC DATA, BUT THE ISM ON WEDNESDAY AND THE PAYROLLS REPORT ON FRIDAY GIVEN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE BLAST WHEN HE WON MINUTES. HOW SENSITIVE -- FOR THE LAST 21 MINUTES. GREG: I DO NOT THINK THE DATA MATTERS MUCH TO BE BRUTALLY HONEST. I THINK IT IS MORE AROUND THE RHETORIC FROM JANET YELLEN AND OTHER FED OFFICIALS TO SEE WHAT THEIR REACTION FUNCTION IS TO THE VIRUS AND THE MUTATION OF THE VIRUS. I THINK THE DATA TAKES A BACKSEAT THIS WEEK. I THINK IT IS MORE AROUND THE RHETORIC, AND THEN MORE AROUND CLARITY OF THE VIRUS. JONATHAN: IS IT FAIR TO SAY THAT A WEAKER PRINT ON FRIDAY MAYBE MORE THAN A STRONGER PRINT? A WEAKER PRINT -- GREG: MAY BE. IT IS ALSO NOT INCLUSIVE OF WHERE WE ARE TODAY. A LAGGING INDICATOR. I THINK SO. THE FED OR THE MARKETS WILL LOOK FOR ANY WEAKER DATA THAT ALLOWS THEM TO BACK OFF. WHO KNOWS. THEY HAVE BEEN PRETTY FOCUSED ON FULL STEAM AHEAD AND QUICKENING THE PACE. IT WOULD BE A BIG SHIFT. ONE THING WE HAVE LEARNED OVER THE PAST SIX MONTHS IS THE FED SHIFTS OFTEN AND DOES KEEP THE MARKETS ON EDGE. I WORRY ABOUT THAT. JONATHAN: GREG PETERS DIPPING WITH US WITH EMILY HILL AND JACK CAFFREY -- RICK PETERS STICKING WITH US WITH EMILY HILL AND JACK CAFFREY. THE TWITTER CEO STEPPING DOWN. CNBC REPORTS JACK DORSEY IS STEPPING DOWN AS TWITTER CEO. UP NEXT, THE MORNING CALLS AND LATER THE REOPENING TRADE BOUNCING BACK. JONATHAN: EQUITIES BOUNCING BACK 1% ON THE S & P 500. IF YOU SWITCH UP THE BOARD, DRAMA FOR TWITTER IN THE PREMARKET. NEWS OUT OF CNBC JACK DORSEY STEPPING DOWN. THE MARKET COULD BE BRUTAL SOMETIMES. THE STOCK UP MORE THAN 10%. CITIGROUP DOWNGRADING MERCK TO NEUTRAL WITH THE DRUGMAKER LIKELY EXIT AGAINST HIV PROGRAM. DEUTSCHE BANK DOWNGRADING UBS TO A HOLD. FINALLY, JEFFRIES RAISING ITS PRICE TARGET ON AVIS BUDGET, MORE THAN TRIPLING HIS ORIGINAL TARGET TO REFLECT IMPROVING MARGINS AND STRENGTHENING PRICING POWER. THAT STOCK IS UP MORE THAN 4%. COMING UP, REOPENING TRADES REBOUNDING. STRATEGIST PREPARING FOR A VOLATILE MONTH. FROM NEW YORK, YOUR CASH OPEN IS NEXT. JONATHAN: 23 SECONDS AWAY FROM THE OPENING IN NEW YORK CITY THIS MONDAY MORNING. A BOUNCE BACK FROM A BRUTAL SESSION. EQUITIES PUSHING HIGHER BY 50 POINTS ON THE S & P. ON THE NASDAQ UP 200, ADVANCING 1.3%. GET TO THE BOND MARKET. ON FRIDAY DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS ON THE 10 YEAR. THIS MORNING UP TO 15620. EURO-DOLLAR, 1.1270. A BIT OF DOLLAR STRENGTH BACK IN PLAY. IN THE COMMODITY MARKET HE HUGE MOVE LOWER, DOWN 10 OR 11% ON WTI CRUDE. THIS MORNING ADVANCED 6.9% TO $72.49. TWO STOCKS TO LOOK AT, WHAT IS TWITTER AND THE OTHER IS SQUARE. HERE IS THE EARLY INTERPRETATION OF A HEADLINE THAT DROPPED A FEW MINUTES AGO FROM CNBC THAT JACK DORSEY IS LOOKING TO STEP DOWN AS THE CEO TWITTER. JACK DORSEY SPENDING LESS TIME AT TWITTER TEAMS TO BE A GOOD THING FOR TWITTER INVESTORS. THAT STOCK UP 11%. JACK DORSEY SPENDING MORE TIME AT SQUARE A GOOD THING FOR SQUARE INVESTORS. THAT IS SOME OF THE BROAD PRICE ACTION. ENERGY UP 2.9%. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY UP 1.8%. STAPLES THE BOTTOM OF THE PILE WITH UTILITIES AND HEALTH CARE TRADING, HEALTH CARE UP TO POINT -- .2%. THE INDEX ADVANCING A LITTLE MORE THAN 1% ON THE S & P. MORGAN STANLEY'S ANDREW SLITHERED WAS WITH US EARLY AND HERE IS WHAT HE HAD TO SAY ABOUT THE COMPLACENCY. > > THERE'S A LOT OF COMPLACENCY. THE MARKET HAS DONE SO WELL THIS YEAR. THE MARKET WAS DOWN ON FRIDAY. I SELL RETAIL MONEY COMING IN. HIGH LEVELS OF COMPLACENCY. WE WILL GET A BOUNCE BACK BUT I DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE DRAMATIC BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT COMPLACENCY OVER AND OVER. IF IT MORPHS INTO SOMETHING MORE SERIOUS, THAT COULD BE OF CONCERN. JONATHAN: A BOUNCE BACK WITH LITTLE MORE THAN 1%. WITH US GREG PETERS, JACK CAFFREY, EMILY HILL. EMILY, YOU'VE MADE THE POINT THAT EQUITIES HAVE CAPTURED FIVE OR SIX RETURNS IN ONE YEAR. HOW MUCH CAUTION YOU THINK WE NEED TO HAVE AROUND THAT STORY? EMILY: IF YOU LOOK AT THE CYCLICALLY ADJUSTED PE RATIO, THE ONLY TIME U.S. STOCKS, U.S. LARGE-CAP STOCKS HAVE THE -- HAVE BEEN THIS OVERPRICED IS 2000. THE VALUE IS IN CYCLICALS, U.S. VALUE STOCKS, INTERNATIONAL STOCKS, WHICH ARE TRADING AT A 30% DISCOUNT TO U.S. STOCKS, AND SELECTIVE STOCK PICKS AMONGST SMALL CAPS. I THINK IT IS TOO EARLY FOR EMERGING MARKETS, BUT I THINK MOST INVESTOR PORTFOLIOS HAVE BECOME HIGHLY CONCENTRATED IN TECH AND U.S. LARGE-CAP GROWTH. THAT IS BECAUSE SOME OF THE FAANG NAMES AND THE 15 TO 20 STOCKS DRAGGING THE S & P 500, INVESTORS HAVE BEEN DECIDING THEY ARE IMMUNE TO WHATEVER IS HAPPENING IN THE ECONOMY. AT SOME POINT THERE WILL BE A CATALYST THAT BRINGS THESE STOCKS BACK TO A VALUE THAT IS MORE APPROPRIATE. THE QUESTION IS, THESE RETAIL INVESTORS ARE VERY AGGRESSIVELY BUYING THE DIP AND I SEE THAT CONTINUING FOR A WHILE. IT MAY BE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE THE KIND OF CORRECTION I EXPECT TO HAPPEN EVENTUALLY. JONATHAN: ONE FINAL QUESTION TO YOU ON THIS. WHAT YOU JUST ABOUT INTERNATIONAL VERSUS SAFE, THE UNITED STATES, COULD HAVE BEEN TRUE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 10 YEARS. WHAT YOU THINK IT WILL MATTER OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? EMILY: IT MAY NOT BE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. OUR MEMBER SAYING INTO THOUSAND SEVEN, I WAS WRONG FOR A YEAR AND A HALF BEFORE WE SAW A BIG CORRECTION. IT COULD BE LONGER FOR A YEAR. THERE ARE REASONS THESE TECH STOPS HAVE DONE AS WELL AS THEY HAVE. THE PANDEMIC ACCELERATED THAT TREND. I AM TALKING ABOUT MICROSOFT, APPLE, FACEBOOK. EVENTUALLY THERE WILL BE REVERSION TO THE MEAN. THAT IS THE WAY IT HAPPENS. FRANKLY -- IT WILL TAKE SOME MAJOR CATALYST. ONE OF THE THINGS WE HAVE SEEN, RETAIL TRADING MARKETS -- RETAIL TRADING VOLUMES WERE AROUND 12% OF TOTAL VOLUME IN 2019. THAT HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED. I WOULD ARGUE A LOT OF THESE TRADERS, A LOT OF THESE INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS LEARNED ABOUT LESSON IN THE LAST BEAR MARKET, WHICH IS A BEAR MARKET LAST THREE AND A HALF WEEKS IN THE FED WILL STEP IN AND BAIL EVERYBODY OUT. ANY KIND OF BIG DOWNTURN IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY. ANY KIND OF BEAR MARKET THAT MANY PEOPLE HAVE BEEN THROUGH, SOMETHING THAT CONTINUES FOR SIX OR NINE MONTHS OR LONGER, YOU WILL SEE THIS RETAIL FLOWS REVERSE. JONATHAN: JACK CAFFREY, YOUR TAKE. JACK: I THINK ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT QUESTIONS AN INVESTOR HAS TO ASK IS WHO AND WHAT IS THE MARGINAL BUYER IN THE EQUITY MARKET. IN THE 1980'S IT WAS THE MUTUAL FUNDS. THAT CONTINUED INTO THE 1990'S AND THERE WAS A TRANSITION TOWARDS HEDGE FUNDS IN THE EARLY 2000 AFTER THEIR GLORIOUS CAPTURE OF CAPITAL IN THE 2000S, AND MORE RECENTLY THAT MARGINAL BUYER HAS BEEN A PASSIVE INVESTOR. THE CHALLENGE OF THE PASSIVE INVESTOR ARE FUNDAMENTALLY INVESTMENT BASED STRATEGIES. YOU SEE THAT BEING RE-CREATED IN THE MARKET WHICH SEEKS SECTOR LEVEL BALANCES OR IMBALANCES THAT PUSHED THE STOCKS THAT WERE MASSIVE BENEFICIARIES OF WORK FROM HOME AND THE DISRUPTION COVID FORCED ON US HAD BEEN BIG WINNERS AND PRICED IN YEARS OF GROWTH TO COME. YOU NEED SOME ISSUE THAT CAUSES US TO CHANGE OUR MIND. I DO NOT KNOW THAT RETAIL TRADERS ARE AS AGGRESSIVE IN THE LARGE-CAP DOMINANT STOCKS THAT CONTROL THE INDEX MOVES AS THEY ARE IN OFF THE RUN ISSUES WHERE THEY CAN SKEW RESULTS BASED ON THEIR TRADING LOW. A YEAR AGO NONE OF US WANTED TO TALK ABOUT THE MEAN STOCKS BECAUSE NONE OF US HAD HEARD OF THEM. NOW MEAN STOCKS ARE OFF IN THEIR -- NOW MEME STOCKS ARE OFTEN THEIR OWN CORNER OF THE MARKETS. YOU HAVE THREE DIVERGENT SETS OF PASSIVE INVESTORS. THREE TRENDS THAT MAY ULTIMATELY DEMAND LIQUIDITY RATHER THAN PROVIDE IT. THAT IS THE QUESTION. WHO IS THAT LIQUIDITY PROVIDER WHEN ALL THREE OF THOSE DECIDE SOMETHING IS WRONG. JONATHAN: I WANT TO BRING YOU THE EARLY MOVES. UP 1% OF THE S & P 500. STAPLES LAGGING. ENERGY TOP OF THE PILE. GREG, TO GO BACK TO WHAT EMILY SAID, RETAIL INVESTORS HAVE LEARNED THE WRONG LESSONS RECENTLY. IS THE SAME TRUE OF CREDIT? GREG: I THINK ALL INVESTORS HAVE BEEN REWARDED BY BUYING THE DIP BEING BAILED OUT BY CENTRAL BANKS. I DO NOT THINK IT IS JUST RETAIL. I DO NOT THINK IT IS U.S. EQUITIES, I THINK IT IS MORE BROAD. IT TAKES US BACK TO WHERE WE STARTED THE CONVERSATION AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR, WHICH IS ILL THEIR STATE -- IS THERE STILL A FED PUT IN PLAY? THAT IS THE QUESTION ON THE TABLE. CONSIDER DIFFERENTLY, IT IS ALL ABOUT INTEREST RATES AS WELL. THESE RISK MARKETS NEED INTEREST RATES TO REMAIN LOW. REAL RATES REMAIN NEGATIVE IN ORDER TO KEEP THE PARTY GOING. TO ME IT COMES FULL CIRCLE AROUND INTEREST RATES, REAL RATES, AND CENTRAL BANKS. JONATHAN: AND A BIG MEETING ON DECEMBER 15. AIRLINES LEADING, REBOUNDING AFTER RECORDING THEIR BIGGEST A DECLINE SINCE 2020 ON FRIDAY. KAILEY LEINZ, IT WAS BRUTAL. KAILEY: IT WAS ACTUALLY BRUTAL. THEY MAY BE GETTING TODAY BUT THAT DOES NOT GO THAT FAR AND RECOVERING WITH THE MAY HAVE LOST ON FRIDAY. IT IS ABOUT THREE OPENING TRADE AND WHAT THE OMICRON VARIANT MEANS. BLACK FRIDAY ON FRIDAY, HE DID SEE TRAFFIC UP FROM 2020 LEVELS, BUT STILL 20% BELOW 2019. YOU SEE THAT SHOWING UP IN THE PERFORMANCE OF DEPARTMENT STORES. THEY WERE CAUGHT UP IN THAT REOPENING TRADE WE SAW AT THE TAIL END OF THANKSGIVING WEEK. THEY ARE LINED STILL DOWN 6.6% OVER LAST FIVE DAYS, EVEN WITH -- THE AIRLINES STILL DOWN 6.6%. THE STAY-AT-HOME INDEX MORE INSULATED BUT IT HAS NOT BEEN SPARED. WE HAVE TO CONSIDER THE RECENT DRAWDOWNS FOR REOPENING STOCKS REPRESENTED BY GOLDMAN SACHS BASKET OF REOPENING PLAYS HAS BROUGHT THEM DOWN 12% FROM THEIR PRE-COVID LEVELS, BUT WE ARE NOWHERE NEAR THE DEPTHS OF THE DECLINE WE SAW IN 2020. AT ONE POINT THERE WERE DOWN 57% FROM THAT LEVEL. JONATHAN: THANKS. ONE MORE NAME I WANT TO TALK ABOUT IS TWITTER. JACK DORSEY IS STEPPING DOWN AS CEO. CNBC OUT FIRST WITH THAT KNOWS ABOUT 20 UNITS GO. THE STOCKS FADING JUST -- ABOUT 20 MINUTES AGO. SQUARE UP ABOUT 1.66%. A STORY WE WILL STAY ON TOP OF THROUGH THE DAY ON BLOOMBERG TV AND RADIO. JEFFREY'S EXPECTING MAJOR PRICE SWINGS AND BETTING ON VOLATILITY, READY "IT WILL BE THE BEST ASSET CLASS IN 2022. WE EXPECT THE FURTHER UNWINDING OF FLOWS AFTER RISK ASSET -- RISK APPETITE REACHED INSATIABLE LEVELS." I WANT A FINAL WORD ON THIS FROM ALL OF YOU. EMILY HILL, WE HAVE TO GET READY TO TOLERATE HIGHER LEVELS OF VOLATILITY GIVEN THE CONVERSATION WE HAVE HAD OVER THE LAST 40 MINUTES? EMILY: IT IS HARD TO SAY. A LOT OF IT DEPENDS ON OMICRON AND HOW SERIOUS THE SYMPTOMS ARE. OFTEN WHEN A VIRUS BECOMES MORE INFECTIOUS IT BECOMES LESS LETHAL. IF IT TURNS OUT TO BE LIKE THE DELTA VARIANT, YOU WILL LOOK BACK TO WHEN THE DELTA VARIANT WAS ANNOUNCED, WHEN PEOPLE GENERALLY ACCEPTED WE HAVE A PROBLEM ON OUR HANDS, IT WAS A BLIP IN THE TREASURY MARKETS, A BLIP IN THE EQUITY MARKET, A BLIP IN TRADING VOLUME. I THINK WE FIND THE NEW VARIANT -- IF WE FIND THE NEW VARIANT IS NOT MORE LETHAL THIS WILL TURN OUT TO BE THE SAME THING. JONATHAN: JACK CAFFREY? JACK: VOLATILITY WILL BE LARGE AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL OVER THE NEXT SIX TO NINE MONTHS. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE ECONOMY , ABOUT THE FED REACTION FUNCTION, ABOUT THE OMICRON VARIANT. I WONDER WHO WILL BE RUNNING ALL OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SIX TO NINE MONTHS FROM NOW. WE HAVE THREE VACANCIES STILL TO BE FILLED. LIBBY INFLATION HAWKS, INFLATION DOVES, REGULATION HAWKS OR REGULATION DOVES? THAT WILL BE A MORE IMPACTFUL DISCUSSION TO BE HAVING. WHEN I LOOK AT HIGH EXPECTATIONS ACROSS CREDIT, CROSS EQUITY INVESTORS, WE DO NOT HAVE AS MUCH ROOM FOR ERROR AS WE MIGHT'VE HAD IN THE PAST. JONATHAN: GREG PETERS, FINAL WORD? GREG: YOU'VE ALREADY SEEN HEIGHTENED VOLATILITY WITHIN THE FIXED INCOME MARKET. YOU HAVE NOT SEEN IT IN THE EQUITY MARKET. A CALL FOR HIGHER VOLATILITY IN EQUITIES IS QUITE NEGATIVE FOR RISK,. . IF YOU THINK VOLATILITY IS ON THE RISE FOR EQUITIES, THAT IS BAD FOR CREDIT, BAD FOR EQUITIES AND BAD FOR THE BROADER MARKET. DO NOTE FIXED INCOME HAS ALREADY SEEN ELEVATED VOLATILITY, IT HAS JUST NOT SEEPED INTO OVERALL RISK MARKETPLACE AS OF YET. JONATHAN: A REALLY GOOD POINT. GREG PETERS, JACK CAFFREY, EMILY HILL. SOMETHING EMILY MENTIONED ABOUT THIS TURNING OUT BETTER THAN OK WAS SOMETHING BILL ACKMAN HAD TO SAY ON TWITTER AS WELL WHEN HE WROTE IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE DEFINITIVE DATA, EARLY REPORTED DATA SUGGESTS THE MICRON VIRUS CASES ARE MILD -- THE OMICRON VIRUS ARE MILD TO MODERATE SYMPTOMS, LESS SEVERITY, AND MORE TRANSMISSIBILITY. IF THIS IS TRUE IT IS BEARISH FOR MARKETS BUT IT IS TOO EARLY -- IT IS INTERESTING TO UNDERSTAND HOW MARKET COULD RESPOND TO THE KIND OF SCENARIO BILL ACKMAN DESCRIBES. COMING UP, OPEC-PLUS DELAYING ITS MEETING WITH THE NEW THREAT FROM OMA KROHN -- FROM OMICRON. > > THE HEAVY LOCKDOWNS ARE MUCH MORE CONCERNING TO OPEC. THIS IS THE REASON WHY THEY HAVE TAKEN A CAUTIOUS APPROACH. THEIR STRATEGY IS BEING REDEEMED. JONATHAN: THAT CONVERSATION IS UP NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. THE VIRUS AND ITS VARIANTS AT 4:30 EASTERN. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. > > THEY HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THE WINTER, TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL MOBILITY RESTRICTIONS. THIS IS WHY OPEC-PLUS HAS BEEN CAUTIOUS. THIS IS WHY OPEC-PLUS HAS BEEN ONLY INCREASING PRODUCTION BY 400,000 BARRELS PER DAY AND DOES CALL INTO QUESTION WHY THE WHITE HOUSE AND OTHER CONSUMERS ARE GOING INTO A SEASON WHICH IS FOUND TO HAVE UNCERTAINTIES AROUND DEMAND. JONATHAN: OPEC-PLUS DELAYING ITS MEETING UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK, WITH RUSSIAN DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER SAYING THE GROUP IS LOOKING FOR "MORE INFORMATION" ABOUT THE CURRENT EVENTS. BLOOMBERG'S JULIAN LEE JOINS US FROM LONDON. GIVEN WHAT WE KNOW AND WHAT WE DO NOT KNOW, WHAT EARTH DO THEY DO THIS WEEK? JULIAN: THEY TRIED TO GATHER AS MUCH INFORMATION AS THEY CAN. THE BEATING THEY HAVE POSTPONED IS THE TECHNICAL MEETING FOR THE SUBCOMMITTEE OF MINISTERS THAT POSTS RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE FULL OPEC-PLUS GATHERING, WHICH IS GOING TO TAKE PLACE ON THURSDAY AS ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED. WHAT THEY ARE DOING IS ALLOWING THEIR ANALYSTS MORE TIME TO GATHER INFORMATION FROM THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION AND OTHERS ABOUT THIS NEW VARIANT AND ABOUT THE IMPACT IT MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT HAVE ON DEMAND BEFORE THEY MAKE A DECISION ON HOW TO RESPOND WITH PRODUCTION TARGETS FOR JANUARY. JONATHAN: HAVE YOU SEEN THESE PRICE TARGETS OUT OF JP MORGAN? WHAT WAS YOUR REACTION TO THAT? JULIAN: THIS IS VERY CLEARLY BASED ON A DISMAL ASSESSMENT OF HOW MUCH PRODUCTION CAPACITY THERE IS WITHIN THE OPEC-PLUS ROUTE, HOW MUCH OF THAT CAN BE BROUGHT INTO PRODUCTION QUICKLY AND SUSTAINED FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME. WHAT THEY ARE SAYING IS THAT FIGURE IS ACTUALLY ABOUT 2 MILLION BARRELS A DAY. IT IS NOT THE 4.5 MILLION BARRELS A DAY THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CONSENSUS VIEW. WHAT THAT MEANS IS AS DEMAND RECOVERS, WE ARE SEEING MUCH LESS OF A CUSHION TO DEAL WITH ANY DISRUPTIONS ELSEWHERE OR WITH ANY STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED DEMAND OF. JONATHAN: FASCINATING STUFF FROM THE TEAM IN LONDON. JP MORGAN, 125 NEXT YEAR ON BRENT. JULIAN, GOOD TO HEAR FROM YOU. I WANT TO TALK WITH DAMIAN SASSOWER OF BLOOMBERG INTELLIGENCE BECAUSE WE SPENT THE WHOLE MORNING TALKING ABOUT OMICRON AND SEEMINGLY, EVERY SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK HINGES ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS STRAIN. IF WE FIND OUT IS MORE CONTAGIOUS, LESS CONTAGIOUS, MORE SEVERE, LESS SEVERE, STANDS UP TO THE VACCINE OR DOES NOT. WHAT IS INTERESTING TO ME, THIS QUOTE CAME FROM PETER TCHIR, BLAME OMA KROHN, BUT I -- BLAME OMICRON BUT I THINK THAT WAS A CATALYST THAT TRIGGERED OTHER THINGS. DO YOU AGREE? DAMIAN: I DO AGREE. WE SAW THE UPTICK IN VOLATILITY -- IN RATE VOLATILITY, ALL OF THESE OTHER ASSET CLASSES, BUT EQUITY AND CREDIT HAD NOT BUDGED. ALL IT TOOK WAS A LITTLE CATALYST, IT COULD HAVE BEEN OIL, IT COULD HAVE BEEN ANYTHING. THE MARKETS WERE OVERDUE FOR A CORRECTION AND I THINK FRIDAY'S PRICE ACTION WAS PROOF OF CONCEPT. JONATHAN: A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE TRIED TO WORK OUT WHETHER THEY SHOULD FADE FRIDAY'S MOVE OR FADE THIS MORNING. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR YOUR APPROACH TO THIS MARKET? DAMIAN: I BELIEVE VOLATILITY NEEDS TO COME UP THROUGH THE ONE WEEK POINT, WHICH MEANS WE HAVE A PAYROLL PRINT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE EQUITY MARKET RALLY EVERYONE IS CALLING FOR, YOU NEED TO SEE A WEEK PAYROLL PRINT IN ORDER FOR THAT TO HAPPEN BECAUSE IT WILL MIX LOWER EXPECTATIONS FOR THE TAPER. VOLUMES WILL STAY A LITTLE BIT ELEVATED ONE WEEK OR TWO WEEKS. I THINK THINGS ARE SETTING UP NICELY FOR A YEAR END RALLY IN EQUITIES. JONATHAN: DAMIAN SASSOWER IT WITH THE VIEW SHARED BY GREG PETERS. GOOD TO SEE YOU AS ALWAYS. YOUR EQUITY MARKET DOES BOUNCE BACK FROM FRIDAY. THE S & P 500 UP 1%. BREAKING DOWN THE SECTOR PRICE ACTION IS KRITI GUPTA. KRITI: AT THE TOP OF THE LEADERBOARD IS GOING TO BE ENERGY, WHICH TELLS YOU WHAT IS GOING TO BE ABROAD RALLY. FOLKS FIND EVERYTHING AFTER LAST WEEK'S PULLBACK. YOU SEE QUITE A BIT IN TRAVEL STOCKS FAST AND FURIOUS ON NEWS VACCINES ARE BEING MADE TO ADDRESS THE NEW VARIANT. WE HEARD GREG PETERS AND NOW DAMIAN SASSOWER TALKING ABOUT EQUITY VOLATILITY CATCHING UP TO VOLATILITY IN OTHER PARTS OF THE MARKET. AIRLINES ARE GOING TO BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. JONATHAN: A LOT TO WORK OUT. GOOD TO CATCH UP WITH YOU. WE GET A BOUNCE BACK FROM FRIDAY'S LOSSES THIS MONDAY MORNING. COMING UP, THE MARKET MOVING EVENTS YOU NEED TO BE WATCHING. WE'LL BRING YOU THE TRADING DIARY AS WE RACED TOWARDS PAYROLLS FRIDAY. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. JONATHAN: 25 MINUTES ENDED THE SESSION. UP ABOUT 1%, AND THE RUSSELL UP POINTED PERCENT -- UP -- THIS MORNING WE HAVE LEARNED A LOT, WHAT WE NEED TO KNOW ABOUT A VIRUS WE DO NOT KNOW. HOW TO VACCINE STAND UP TO IT? AND WE FIND THAT OUT WE CANNOT FIT UP THEIR OUTLOOK ON THIS OR ON A CENTRAL BANK. THE FED PUT IS IN QUESTION. 2, 10, AND 30'S IS WHAT WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT. GREG PETERS BRING THAT UP, ECHOING WHAT WE HEARD FROM PETER TCHIR. IF THE BACKUP IS HIGH INFLATION AND WE GET INTO TROUBLE IN THE MARKET, HOW MUCH SPACE DOES THE FED HAVE TO STEP IN TO HELP THINGS OUT? YIELDS UP FOUR BASIS POINTS, ON 10 OF EIGHT BASIS POINTS TO 1.5551. LET'S GET YOU THE TRADING DIARY. PRESIDENT BIDEN DELIVERING REMARKS ON HUMAN KROHN VARIANT AT 11: -- ON THE OMA KROHN -- ON THE OMICRON VARIANT AT 11:45. JAY POWELL AND JANET YELLEN HEADING TO CONGRESS TO TESTIFY ON TUESDAY. JOBLESS CLAIMS ON THURSDAY AND WRAPPING UP THE WEEK WITH THE MAIN EVENT, PAYROLLS FRIDAY JUST AROUND THE CORNER. HOW SENSITIVE WILL WE BE TO THAT INCOMING ECONOMIC DATA AS WE WAIT FOR MORE ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS ABOUT OMICRON. THANK YOU FOR CHOOSING BLOOMBERG TV.

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'The Open' Full Show (11/29/2021)

Jonathan Ferro highlights the market-moving news you need to know heading into the opening bell on Wall Street. Stocks climbing and bonds falling as covid jitters abate and investors reassess the impact of the omicron strain. PGIM's Greg Peters, JPMorgan's Jack Caffrey and Bowersock's Emily Hill discuss the potential change in the Fed's policy timeline and look ahead to the week of key economic data. (Source: Bloomberg)

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