00:00NISID: GOOD MORNING, EVERYBODY. THE PIVOT TO ASIA. THE TERM IS 10 YEARS OLD NOW AND FOR MOST OF THOSE 10 YEARS, IT HAS BEEN MORE A FIGURE OF SPEECH, RHETORICAL DEVICE THAN CONCRETE POLICY P IT ARGUABLY, THAT HAS CHANGED UNDER THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION EVEN AMID EFFORTS TO COMBAT THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC, REESTABLISH TRANSATLANTIC TIES, AND EVEN AMID ALL THAT, THERE HAS BEEN A REAL, CONCERTED EFFORT TO RE-ENERGIZE TIES WITH ASIA, TO REFOCUS U.S. ATTENTION, COMMITMENT, INVESTMENTS IN THIS REGION. YOU SEE THIS IN THE QUAD, WHICH THE U.S. HAS TRIED TO REINVIGORATE TO ADDRESS VACCINE SHORTAGES. AND TO SUPPLY CHAIN SECURITY ISSUES AND SO ON. YOU SEE IT IN THE PARTNERSHIP WITH THE U.S. -- WITH THE U.K. AND AUSTRALIA TO DELIVER NUCLEAR SUBMARINES TO AUSTRALIA. ALL OF THIS, QUITE OPENLY, THE GOAL IS TO ESTABLISH AN ORDER IN ASIA THAT IS FRIENDLY TO U.S. INTERESTS AND VALUES AND THAT IS CAPABLE OF COUNTERBALANCING A RISING CHINA. THE QUESTION, KEVIN, I CAN START WITH YOU, IS THIS STABILIZING OR DESTABILIZING? IS IT PUSHING US CLOSER TOWARDS CONFLICT? MR. RUDD: ON BALANCE, WHAT I SEE IS IT IS STABILIZING. BECAUSE THE CONCEPT OF STABILITY HANGS ON AN AXIOM OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS WHICH IS THE BALANCE OF POWER. IT HAPPENS TO BE IN VIEW AS WELL. AND WHEN YOU ARE THEREFORE LOOKING AT A SERIES OF ACTIONS IN EAST ASIA TO REDRESS EMERGING POWER IMBALANCES WHICH IS THE RISE OF CHINA, THAT IS ACHIEVED BY A RECOMMITMENT TO THE U.S. MILITARY. IN PARTICULAR, ITS NAVAL CAPABILITIES. IT IS THE REINVIGORATION OF U.S. ALLIANCES IN WHICH THERE ARE FIVE TRADING PARTNERS IN ASIA. THIRDLY, IT IS THE NEW EMERGING STRATEGIC ARCHITECTURE AS WELL, THE QUAD. ALL OF THOSE ARE DIRECT REACTIONS TO CHINA ' S RISE AND AN OBJECTIVE AND PERCEIVED ADVERSE DIRECTION OF THE BALANCE OF POWER. SO IF STABILITY IS ACHIEVED BY A BALANCE OF POWER, THEN I THINK OVERALL, THIS IS STABILIZING. ON PROSPERITY, I WOULD SAY NOT YET. THAT IS BECAUSE THE NATURE OF THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION, AND IN PARTICULAR, THE NATURE OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESS AND ITS PROTECTIONIST CENTER OF GRAVITY HAS PRESENTED THIS -- PREVENTED THIS ADMINISTRATION FROM RE-ENGAGING THE REGION IN TRADE. THE DECISION ON TPP, TRANSPACIFIC PARTNERSHIP, WAS DISASTROUS. CHINA IS NOW APPLYING TO JOIN IT. THE FACT THAT CHINA IS NOW A PARTY TO ANOTHER PAN REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENT, THIS IS THE HOLE IN THE MIDST OF THE AMERICAN STRATEGY. OUR AMERICAN FRIENDS IN THE WHITE HOUSE KNOW THIS WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE HAD THIS CONFERENCE, GINA RAIMONDO, SEEKING TO STITCH TOGETHER A NEW ECONOMIC STRATEGY INCURRED IN WHAT WILL BE A STRATEGY ON DIGITAL TRADE AND DIGITAL COMMERCE. THAT IS GOOD. ON PROSPERITY, HOWEVER, IT REQUIRES THE RE-ENGAGEMENT ON THE ECONOMY IN TRADE AND THAT IS STILL WAITING TO BE SEEN. NISID: YOU CAN PICK UP THERE WITH THE ECONOMY. THIS IS AN AREA WHERE BIDEN IS MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO HIS PREDECESSOR, DONALD TRUMP, THEN TO HIS FORMER BOSS, PRESIDENT OBAMA. THERE IS AN UNWILLINGNESS OR INABILITY TO PUSH THE FREE-TRADE HERE. THERE ARE EFFORTS TO FIND ALTERNATIVES BUT CAN THE U.S. REALLY BE A VIABLE PARTNER TO COUNTRIES IF WE ARE NOT WILLING TO OPEN ACCESS TO OUR MARKETS? > > THANK YOU. PLEASURE TO BE HERE. I AGREE WITH WHAT KEVIN JUST SAID. WHEN I LOOK AT THIS REGION, I SEE A REGION WHERE THE UNITED STATES HAS A PROFOUND COMMITMENT AND HISTORY, MULTILAYERED, ON THE SECURITY SIDE, ON THE ECONOMIC -- FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT. U.S. FIRMS ARE THE GREATEST STOCK OF FDI, SECOND IS JAPAN, THIRD IS CHINA, AND DEEP TRADE RELATIONS, CULTURAL TIES, STUDENT TIES, TECHNOLOGICAL. I SEE THE U.S. IS DEEPLY IN ASIA AND THE VITALITY OF THIS REGION -- YOU KNOW, IT IS THE HIGHEST GROWTH ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD SINCE THE FINANCIAL CRISIS. MORE AND MORE FIRMS ARE INTERESTED IN COMING HERE. I THINK IT WOULD BE A MISTAKE TO LIMIT AN ASSESSMENT OF AMERICA ' S COMMITMENT TO ASIA, EFFECTIVENESS IN ASIA TO THESE -- WILLINGNESS TO ENGAGE IN TRADE AGREEMENTS. I WOULD ALSO SAY THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS SAID VERY PLAINLY, I THINK, YOU KNOW, THAT IT WOULD TRY TO COOPERATE WHERE IT CAN WITH CHINA, COMPETE WHERE MOST THAT THE FIRST PRIORITY WAS GETTING ITS OWN HOUSE IN ORDER, THAT IT WANTED TO NEGOTIATE FROM A POSITION OF STRENGTH. IT HAD TO FOCUS ON THE DOMESTIC AGENDA. THOSE ARE MIGHTY CHALLENGES. SO I THINK THERE IS A TIMING AND SEQUENCING QUESTION HERE THAT AT LEAST LEAVES ME WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT MORE IS TO COME. AND I THINK WE HEARD THIS WEEK SOME VERY INTRIGUING IDEAS. ACTUALLY, AT PRESIDENT TRUMP INC., I WOULD SAY 85% OF CPA TPP IN THE USMCA AND THEN TOOK SOME FEATURES FURTHER. SO EVERY ADMINISTRATION I THINK TENDS TO WANT TO HAVE THEIR AGREEMENT, THEIR INITIATIVES. I WOULD EXPECT THAT TO TAKE SHAPE. BUT IT IS MORE THAN JUST WHETHER NEW REGIONALS WILL BE LAUNCHED AND I ' M HOPING THAT A DIGITAL FRAMEWORK WILL BE DEVELOPED BECAUSE DEVELOP HAS NOT -- ASIA HAS NOT WAITED FOR THE UNITED STATES. IT IS MOVING. THERE ARE REAL OPPORTUNITIES TO CREATE FRAMEWORKS THAT MATTER FOR THE FUTURE BUT I THINK ASIAN COUNTRIES ALSO WANT THE U.S. TO BE ENGAGED MULTILATERALLY. AND IT IS INTERESTING IN MY THREE DAYS HERE, I HAVE NOT HEARD A WORD ABOUT THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE A MULTILATERAL, YOU KNOW, SUMMIT COMING UP, MC 12, IN 1.5 WEEKS. WILL THE U.S. WE ENGAGE THAT AT SOME LEVEL? ONE DOES NOT HAVE TO LAUNCH PROFOUND NEGOTIATIONS BUT WE ENGAGE ON ISSUES THAT MATTER TO THE WORLD AND TO ASIA. CERTAINLY ON THAT. NISID: SHOW THAT COMMITMENT. YOU RECENTLY WROTE THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION ' S APPROACH TO ASIA IS AGAIN VERY SIMILAR TO THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ' S. IT IS STILL TRANSACTIONAL. BUT THERE IS STILL A PRICE TO BE PAID BY ASIAN COUNTRIES FOR U.S. SUPPORT. IS THAT PRICE VALID? IS IT WORTH PAYING? MR. KAUSIKAN: FIRST OF ALL, I AGREE WITH WHAT MR. RUDD AND MISS JAN OW JUST SAID. I DISLIKE THIS PHRASE " PIVOT TO ASIA. " WE NEVER LEFT. I AGREE WITH MR. RUDD THAT THERE IS A BIG HOLE IN U.S. STRATEGY ON THE TRADE SIDE, BUT IT IS A MULTILATERAL HOLE. THE U.S. IS STILL A VERY IMPORTANT ECONOMIC PARTNER WHO MOST OF US -- FOR MOST OF US IN ASIA, INCLUDING CHINA, BY THE WAY. LET ' S PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE. NOW, I THINK AFTER THE COLD WAR, AFTER THE LONG ENGAGEMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST, IT IS QUITE NATURAL THAT THE U.S. FOCUS WILL BE DOMESTIC AND THAT IS TRUE OF MR. OBAMA BECAUSE WHEN HE SAID LET ' S HAVE CHANGE, HE WAS NOT REALLY TALKING ABOUT CHANGE ABROAD. HE WAS TALKING ABOUT CHANGE AT HOME. THAT IS WHY PEOPLE VOTED FOR HIM. SO LET ' S PUT THAT IN PERSPECTIVE. EVERY COUNTRY ' S FOREIGN POLICY IS TRANSACTIONAL TO A CERTAIN DEGREE. DURING THE COLD WAR, BECAUSE THERE WAS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT, THE U.S. WAS PREPARED TO BE MUCH MORE GENEROUS THAN IT IS NOW. THAT IS QUITE NATURAL. AND I THINK WE HAVE TO ACCEPT THAT. WHEN MR. BIDEN SAYS I WANT TO CONSULT WITH FRIENDS, PARTNERS, AND ALLIES, HE ' S NOT CONSULTING WITH US BECAUSE WE ARE ALL GOOD-LOOKING AND CHARMING PEOPLE. HE IS CONSULTING US TO FIND OUT WHAT WE CAN DO TOGETHER. AND I THINK WE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, ASEAN, IN MY VIEW ANYWAY, NOT SUFFICIENTLY REALIZED THAT. WE KEEP SAYING THAT WE ARE CENTRAL AND RATHER PLEASED WHEN PEOPLE SAY WE ARE CENTRAL BUT IF WE REALLY WANT TO BE CENTRAL, WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO TALK ABOUT BEING CENTRAL. THAT IS A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE. MR. TRUMP WAS DISRUPTIVE. IT IS AN IMPORTANT POINT TO STRESS, THE U.S. NEVER LEFT. THE BIG ADJUSTMENT OF U.S. POLICY IN ASIA WAS AFTER THE VIETNAM WAR WHEN IT MOVED TO BEING THE BALANCER RATHER THAN THE DIRECT INTERVENER. SINCE THEN, ALMOST HALF A CENTURY AGO, THE U.S. HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THAT ROLE AS OFFSHORE BALANCER. LET ' S PUT THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE. > > LET ME FOLLOW UP ON THAT. AS AN OFFSHORE BALANCER, YOU ARE IN A VERY DIFFICULT POSITION. WHAT YOU ARE OFFERING IS TOO HOT FOR SOME PEOPLE, TOO COLD FOR OTHERS. IT ' S A GOLDILOCKS THING. IS THIS SORT OF QUESTIONING OF WHAT THE REST PIVOT IS GOING TOO FAR, HAS IT GONE FAR ENOUGH, IS THAT AN INEVITABLE PART OF BEING A SUPERPOWER THAT IS COMING IN FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION? MR. RUDD: I TAKE A VERY SORT OF, I THINK, OBJECTIVE VIEW OF HOW DO WE BEST SECURE OUR FUTURE AS A REGION? AND IF THERE IS NO STRATEGIC ABILITY, THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE WILL SOON FEEL IT AND KNOW IT AND EXPERIENCE IT AND IT WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING. WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH THOSE PERIODS IN THE PAST IN OUR REGION, AND PRIOR TO THE FALL OF SAIGON, THIS REGION WAS A DIFFERENT BARREL OF FISH. AND MOST OF THE ECONOMIC GROWTH HERE HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE FALL OF SAIGON BECAUSE WE UNDERPINNING STRATEGIC STABILITY HAS REMAINED IN PLACE. THE UNITED STATES IS GOING TO TOP CRITICISM ON THE GOLDILOCKS PRINCIPLE ALL THE TIME -- COP CRITICISM ON THE GOLDILOCKS FROM SIBAL THE TIME. IN TOKYO AND IN SEOUL AND IN DELHI AND IN CANBERRA, LOOKING AT ONE COURT EQUATION, WHICH IS DO WE SEE A NET REINVESTMENT OF AMERICAN MILITARY ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL POWER INTO THE REGION OR IS THE UNITED STATES BEGINNING TO SLIDE OUT OF THAT BY ONE FORM OR ANOTHER? SO FAR, OUR NET ASSESSMENT IS THE FORMER, NOT THE LATTER. LET ME TELL YOU, ALL THE HARD HEADS IN THE REGION COUNT EVERY RIVET IN EVERY SHIP, EVERY RIVET IN EVERY AIRCRAFT, WE COUNT -- WE LOOK CAREFULLY TO THE RELATIVE SIZE OF AMERICAN GDP AGAINST THAT OF THE CHINESE. THE TRADE FOOTPRINT, WE LOOK AT THE INVESTMENT FOOTPRINT, THE CAPITAL MARKETS FOOTPRINT. I MEAN, LOOK AT WHERE THE SUPPLY CHAINS ARE GOING ON SEMICONDUCTORS. THAT IS WHAT IS COUNTED. THAT EQUALS AN AGGREGATE STABILITY. CHINA, PURSUING ITS GRAND STRATEGY, IS SEEKING TO UPSET THAT APPLE CARD. THAT IS WHAT GREAT POWERS DO WHEN THEY ARE ON -- APPLE CART. THAT IS WHAT GREAT POWERS DO WHEN THEY ARE ON THE RISE. THEREFORE, THE ONE THING WHICH WILL I THINK PRESERVE AGGREGATE STABILITY WHICH ENABLES THEREFORE THE REGION TO PROSPER ECONOMICALLY IS TO ENSURE THAT THESE STRATEGIC FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN IN ORDER. OF COURSE, WE KNOW WHAT THE TRIPWIRES ARE, TAIWAN AND THE REST, BUT THE THE BEST WAY TO PREVENT A TAIWAN SCENARIO FROM GOING FROM THEORETICAL DISCUSSIONS INTO A NATIONAL SECURITY NIGHTMARE AND GENERATING A WAR IS THROUGH EFFECTIVE AMERICAN AND TAIWANESE AN ALLY DETERRENCE. -- AND ALLY DETERRENCE. NISID: ON THAT POINT OF TENSION, EVERY MOVE, EVERY STATEMENT, EVERY RIVET, AS YOU SAY, THAT IS A TOUGH STANDARD TO MEET, ESPECIALLY WHEN WE HAVE OUR OWN POLITICS THAT ARE DISRUPTED RIGHT NOW. UNPREDICTABLE. HOW DO YOU PERSUADE ASIAN COUNTRIES THAT THEY CAN TRUST THESE POLICIES WILL MOVE THROUGH INTO THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION, ONE AFTER THE OTHER? MS. JANOW: YOU KNOW, I AM NOT SURE HOW WE CONVINCE COUNTRIES EXCEPT THROUGH OUR ACTIONS. WHEN YOU HAVE SEEN OFFICIALS COMING AND TALKING ABOUT THE THEMES THAT WE HAVE BEEN HEARING ABOUT, I THINK THAT IS REASSURING. WHEN YOU HAVE AMERICAN FIRMS CONTINUE TO INVEST AND HIRE LOCALLY AND ENGAGE, THAT ' S VERY REASSURING. WHEN YOU DEVELOP FRAMEWORKS OF A HYBRID NATURE, I THINK PERHAPS THAT CAN BE REASSURING. THOSE ARE I THINK ALL HEALTHY STEPS AND THEY ARE REINFORCED BY THE COMMERCIAL BUSINESS ACTIVITIES. SO I THINK WHEN HE STRESSES THE POWER OF BUSINESS, IT IS NOT ABSTRACT. I THINK IT IS PART OF THE GLUE THAT IS HOLDING US BUT SO TOO IS IMMIGRATION, STUDENTS, EDUCATION , MULTILAYERED FORMS OF IT I THINK SHOULD BE GIVING CONFIDENCE. AND I AGREE THAT, YOU KNOW, THE MAN WHO COINED THE TERM PIVOT IS IN THE WHITE HOUSE, BUT I THINK THE U.S. HAS NEVER LEFT. NISID: IS THERE A WAY TO MAKE THAT CLEARER? THE STOCK OF U.S. INVESTMENT IS HIGHER HERE THAN ANY OTHER COUNTRY. BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS ARE QUITE STRONG, BUT IT ' S NOT APPRECIATED SO WELL. MAYBE THIS IS A PROBLEM WITH THE MEDIA. HOW DO YOU PUT THAT INTO A NARRATIVE FOR THE REGION? MR. KAUSIKAN: I THINK IT IS BETTER APPRECIATED NOW THAN BEFORE FOR THE REASONS MR. RUDD SAID. SINGAPORE HAS NEVER BEEN SHY ABOUT SAYING THAT THE U.S. IS A VITAL ELEMENT IN ANY STRATEGIC BALANCE IN THE WHOLE REGION. SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS, FOR REASONS OF THEIR OWN, USUALLY DOMESTIC REASONS, ARE NOT WILLING TO BE SO OPEN IN ARTICULATING THIS IDEA BUT AS A BETTER APPRECIATION. IN 1990, AFTER A COMBINATION OF FILIPINO DOMESTIC POLITICS AND NATURAL DISASTER FORCED THE U.S. MILITARY OUT OF THE AIRFIELD, WE OFFERED THE USE OF OUR FACILITIES BECAUSE WE THOUGHT IT WAS IMPORTANT TO HAVE AT LEAST A SYMBOLIC PRESENCE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA. IN 1990, WE SIGNED AN MIOU TO THAT EFFECT. SOME OF OUR NEIGHBORS REACTED HYSTERICALLY. FAST FORWARD. 2019, WE RENEWED THAT. NOT A WHIMPER. THEY ARE NOT PREPARED TO SAY SO BUT THEY NOW UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IDEA THAT THE U.S. IS A VITAL ELEMENT OF ANY STRATEGIC BALANCE AND WILL HELP BALANCE -- WITHOUT BALANCE, THERE IS NO PROSPERITY, NO STABILITY. IT IS NOT JUST ECCENTRICS FOR THE SINGAPOREAN IDEA BUT A STRATEGIC REALITY THAT YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO ARTICULATE IT BUT YOU UNDERSTAND IT BETTER BECAUSE THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED, RIGHT? NISID: YOU HAVE ALSO POINTED OUT THAT THESE COUNTRIES THEMSELVES ARE AGENTS, RIGHT? THEY HAVE AGENCIES, SO WHAT CAN THEY DO TO CONTRIBUTE TO THIS STABILITY? TWO SORT OF PREVENT POTENTIAL MISCALCULATION AND TENSIONS? MR. RUDD: SEPARATING OUT CONSTANTLY DECLARE TERRY STATEMENTS FROM -- DECLARATORY STATEMENTS FROM THEIR ACTUAL VIEW. THERE ' S POLITICS, DIPLOMACY, DOMESTIC POLITICS, THE CORE STRATEGIC VIEW. THE CORE STRATEGIC VIEW IN AT LEAST EIGHT OUT OF 10 ASEAN CAPITALS IS THAT IT ' S GREAT TO HAVE UNCLE SAM AROUND AND BACK. SECOND POINT, THE GIANT ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM IS ACTUALLY NOT THE ONE THAT IS THE SUBJECT OF THE TITLE OF THIS SESSION. THE GIANT ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM IS THE GUY WITH THE PINK FACE. DONALD TRUMP. DOES HE COME BACK DIRECTLY OR IN ANOTHER FORM IN 2024? THIS WILL NOT BE A FUNDAMENTAL GAME CHANGER IN TERMS OF PAN REGIONAL VIEWS OF AMERICAN LIABILITY. RELIABILITY, BUT IT WILL BE A BIG ONE, BECAUSE IT BRINGS INTO SHARP FOCUS THE FUTURE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY ON NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY IN ASIA LONG-TERM. THERE IS ENOUGH BALLAST WITHIN THE U.S. MILITARY AND ELSEWHERE TO OFFSET -- AND BUSINESS TO OFFSET RADICAL CHANGES IN ADMINISTRATION DIRECTION BUT I HAVE GOT TO SAY, MOST OF US WERE SHAKEN BY THE TRUMP EXPERIENCE IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER. SOME OF US WERE MORE CANDID THAN OTHERS BUT I THINK OPERATIONALLY, HOW THE HELL DID THIS HAPPEN? HOW DO JANUARY 6 HAPPEN? HOW DID PANDEMIC MANAGEMENT IMPLODE SO BADLY? THERE WAS A SHAKING OF CONFIDENCE IN AMERICA. WHEN I LOOK AT REPUBLICANS, YOU HAVE A MASSIVE RESPONSIBILITY AS THEY RECLAIM THE PLATFORM FOR YOURSELF. FINALLY ON THE REGION. YOU KNOW, IF YOU ARE SITTING IN BEIJING, AND I SPENT A LOT OF MY LIFE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND HOW BEIJING VIEWS THE REGION IN THE WORLD AND THE UNITED STATES, THAT ' S HALF OF THE PICTURE. THEY WILL NOW BE LOOKING AT THE FACT THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE EMERGENCE OF THE QUAD FROM VIRTUALLY NOTHING A YEAR OR TWO AGO INTO SOMETHING MUCH MORE ROBUST. THEY HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THE EMERGENCE OF -- THE RE-STRENGTHENING OF THE BILATERAL SECURITY ARRANGEMENTS WITH THE FIVE TREATY PARTNERS AND WITH OTHER FRIENDS LIKE SINGAPORE AND PARTNERS IN THE REGION. THE HARD HITS IN BEIJING WILL BE SAYING WE HAVE, THROUGH OUR AGGREGATE ADDITION TO OUR OWN POWER, BUT ALSO FOR THE STRATEGY, GIVEN RISE TO MUCH OF THIS. I WOULD NOT ADMIT THAT PUBLICLY BUT THAT IS THE INTERNAL TAKE AND AS A CONSEQUENCE, THERE WILL BE A DISCUSSION AT LEAST FOR THE YEAR AHEAD AS TO WHETHER THIS HAS BEEN ENTIRELY A WISE STRATEGY. DO I THINK THEY WILL CHANGE STRATEGY? TACTICALLY, YES. FUNDAMENTALLY, PROBABLY NOT. BUT YOUR QUESTION WAS WHAT HAS THE REGION BEEN DOING? THAT HAS BEEN MANIFEST. ON THE ASEAN POINT, WHILE THEY MAY SAY THINGS ABOUT THE QUAD AND SAY THINGS ABOUT AUGUST, WHAT IS INTERESTING -- AUKUS, WHAT IS INTERESTING IS THE DEGREE OF SILENCE ABOUT IT, PARTICULARLY WITH ASEAN AS AN ENTITY. THAT ' S BECAUSE THESE INSTITUTIONS NOW AFFORD SOUTHEAST ASIA GREATER LEVELS OF POLITICAL MANEUVERABILITY WITH BEIJING THEN PERHAPS THEY HAD BEFORE. > > WOULD YOU AGREE THAT BEING MORE FORWARD LEANING FOR COUNTRIES IN THE REGION IS SAFER FOR THEM? MR. KAUSIKAN: ABSOLUTELY. NOT EVERYBODY CAN BE THE SAME THINGS NATIONALLY. BUT I THINK THAT THERE IS A BETTER APPRECIATION THAT EVERYBODY NEEDS A GOOD RELATIONSHIP WITH BEIJING BUT THE NECESSARY CONDITION FOR THAT IS TO HAVE AMERICANS AROUND. SO I THINK THAT IS UNDERSTOOD. WHAT EACH COUNTRY IS WILLING TO DO NATIONALLY IS DIFFERENT. DOMESTIC POLITICS, YOUR OWN CONSIDERATIONS. SINGAPORE CAN DO ONE THING, INDONESIA SOMETHING ELSE. THAT WILL NATURALLY BE DIFFERENT FOR COUNTRY TO COUNTRY. I THINK THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THE NECESSARY CONDITION FOR HAVING A CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA, WHICH EVERYBODY NEEDS, IS TO HAVE AMERICANS AROUND, CLOTHES WOULD ' VE RELATIONSHIP WITH AMERICA. NISID: IF THE U.S. KNOWS THAT THAT IS WHAT COUNTRIES ARE LOOKING FOR, WHAT THEY NEED, WHAT OTHER THINGS CAN WE OFFER IF NOT TRADE? I MEAN, CHINA CAN OFFER QUICK -- I WOULD NOT SAY CHEAP BUT QUICK INFRASTRUCTURE DEALS. WE HAVE TRIED TO MOVE ON THAT FRONT BUT HAVING TROUBLE. SHOULD WE MOVE AWAY FROM TRYING TO COMPETE HEAD-TO-HEAD ON THAT AND FOCUS ON DIGITAL HEALTH SYSTEMS, OTHER AREAS, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE? MS. JANOW: THANK YOU. I DO THINK THAT WHAT YOU ARE SAYING IS IMPORTANT. AND THERE WILL BE TENSIONS AS A RESULT AND IF THE UNITED STATES -- WHAT I HEAR WHEN I AM HERE IN THE REGION ALL THE TIME, IT IS VERY CHALLENGING IF THE U.S. TAKES POLICY ACTIONS THAT MAKE ASIAN COUNTRIES FEEL THEY HAVE TO MAKE A CHOICE. THAT IS A VERY UNCOMFORTABLE PLACE TO BE. AND SO I THINK WE SHOULD BE CREATING A POSITIVE AGENDA IN THE REGION THAT HAS ITS OWN DYNAMIC AND IS NOT FORCING CHOICE ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE POINTS OF TENSION INESCAPABLY, ONE MUST RECOGNIZE. SO WHAT IS THAT POSITIVE AGENDA? I DO THINK THAT THE DYNAMISM HERE AROUND THE DIGITAL ECONOMY, THE ABSENCE OF ROLE FLAME WORKS -- FRAMEWORKS, BUT THE EMERGENCE OF REGULATORY SYSTEMS TRYING TO THINK ABOUT THESE VERY DOMESTIC QUESTIONS AROUND PRIVACY AND SECURITY AND THE DIGITAL ECONOMY , YOU KNOW, THEY ARE RICH FOR COOPERATION AND WE HAVE SEEN THAT ALREADY THROUGH THE REGIONAL INITIATIVE ON A DIGITAL ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK. THOSE ARE STILL EARLY STAGES AND THERE A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE TO REALLY MAKE THINGS OPERABLE FOR THE FUTURE. THERE ' S ALSO A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE AROUND CYBERSECURITY, PRIVACY NORMS. I THINK THOSE ARE AMONG THE AREAS. WE HEARD SECRETARY ROMANO TALK ABOUT SUPPLY CHAIN AND ALSO AROUND ENVIRONMENT-RELATED MEASURES. THAT, I THINK, I AM QUITE INTRIGUED COMING OUT OF COP26 ABOUT LONDON FINANCE STRUCTURES AND WHAT THEY CAN BRING IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION. I THINK THERE IS A POSITIVE AGENDA. I THINK IT WILL TAKE A LOT OF WORK. > > I CAN JUST REINFORCE WHAT SHE SAID. SHE HAS DESCRIBED A HUGE AMERICAN OPPORTUNITY IN TERMS OF DIGITAL COMMERCE AND DIGITAL SECURITY AND DIGITAL REGULATION AS THE EXPLOSION OF DIGITAL COMMERCE BECOMES A GLOBAL AND PAN REGIONAL REALITY. SHE ALSO TOUCHED ON SUPPLY CHAINS. IF THE QUESTION IS WHAT MORE CAN BE DONE IN THE REGION, WHAT MORE CAN BE DONE BY THE UNITED STATES? IT ' S THIS. IT IS UNDERWAY. IF YOU READ THE TEXT, CHINESE ARE MOVING TOWARDS SECURE SUPPLY CHAINS FOR THEMSELVES. NOW, THE UNITED STATES IS MOVING NOT JUST IN TECHNOLOGIES BUT IN OTHER AREAS TO A REENGINEERING OF ITS SUPPLY CHAINS AND THAT OF ITS ALLIES. HERE IS A CONCRETE BENEFIT TO BE DELIVERED TO THIS REGION RIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ASIA. RATHER THAN SIMPLY BUY -- HAVING THE BOYS FROM BOISE, IDAHO, SAYING BRING IT ALL BACK HOME, BRING IT TO YOUR ALLIES IN THE REGION. THIS ADDS TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE REGION. IT ADDS TO PROSPERITY IN THE REGION. AND IT COMES OFF THE BACK OF AMERICAN STRATEGY AS WELL. AND FINALLY, YOUR POINT ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE. AND RENEWABLE ENERGY. THE GLOBAL FOCUS WILL NOW, UNDER ASIA COMING OUT OF GLASGOW. THAT IS WHERE THE BIG EMITTERS ARE. THERE IS A HUGE DRIVE TO BE LED BY THE UNITED STATES AND SOME OF ITS ALLIES AND PARTNERS IN BRINGING ABOUT A RENEWABLE ENERGY REVOLUTION ACROSS THIS CONTINENT. THIS HEMISPHERE. CHINA IS CONSTRAINED BECAUSE OF ITS ACUTE COAL DEPENDENCY AND ITS CONCERNS ABOUT ENERGY SECURITY. THERE IS A HUGE OPPORTUNITY HERE FOR AMERICAN AND ALLIED BADER SHIP IN BRINGING THIS HEMISPHERE INTO THE RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOLUTIONS THOUGH WE HAVE IN ASIA A CARBON NEUTRAL 2050. UNLESS THAT HAPPENS, FRANKLY, AS THE AUSTRALIAN POETS WOULD SAY, WE ARE BOTHERED. -- BUGGERED. MR. KAUSIKAN: CAN I SAY SOMETHING ABOUT THIS IDEA OF NOT WANTING TO CHOOSE? THERE IS ALWAYS AGENCY. EVEN THE SMALLEST COUNTRY HAS AGENCY. OTHERWISE, SINGAPORE WOULD NOT EXIST. WHEN WE SAY WE DON ' T WANT TO CHOOSE, WHAT WE REALLY MEAN IS WE DON ' T SEE ANY NEED TO NEATLY ALIGN OUR INTERESTS ACROSS ALL DOMAINS IN ONE DIRECTION. SOME OF OUR INTERESTS WILL TAKE US IN THE DIRECTION OF CHINA, SOME IN THE DIRECTION OF JAPAN, THE UNITED STATES, INDIA, BOTSWANA. THAT IS WHAT WE WANT. WE HAVE AGENCY AND THE U.S. PRESIDENTS OF SAUCE THAT BECAUSE THERE ' S NO AGENCY FOR SMALL COUNTRIES. NISID: THAT IS A PERFECT NOTE TO END ON. . THANK YOU ALL VERY MUCH. MS. JANOW: THANK YOU. > > THANK YOU.

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When Elephants Fight: Is the U.S. Pivot Good for Asia?

Through new partnerships such as the Quad, new defense arrangements such as AUKUS and strengthened military ties to Japan, India and others, the U.S. is finally adding substance to its long-discussed pivot to Asia. Washington says its actions are intended to preserve freedom and prosperity in the region; China says they are driving the world toward a cold and possibly even hot war. How can Asian nations shape the new U.S. strategy to produce what they want above all else: stability? Nisid Hajari, Editorial Board, Bloomberg LP moderates a panel with The Hon. Kevin Rudd AC, 26th Prime Minister of Australia; President and CEO, Asia Society; President, Asia Society Policy Institute, Bilahari Kausikan, Former Permanent Secretary of Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Chairman, Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore and Merit Janow, Dean, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University.

Bloomberg Technology
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