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CC-Transcript

  • 00:00I'm curious. It looks like inflation and interest rates arelikely to continue to rise. What do you think that means to the broader markets and forElliot's business in particular. Well you know I think we've all enjoyed the benefits of lowrates for a long time and ultra accommodative monetary policy. Globally anybody that's managed to put risk on the page in thelast 13 years and more specifically the last 18 months has been well rewarded. I'm not sure it's all genius. I think thosetailwinds have made us all look good. But now I think this cycle is evolving. And so what does that mean. You know if you thinkabout just taking a step back and if you've seen these numbers household wealth is increased by about five trillion dollars thelast five quarters five trillion dollars. So I think we're at all time highs for household wealth to nominal GDP which is Iget six and a quarter times at the same time. Know we have household wealth like almost a 50 percent allocation toequities. So you start to think about is there real sensitivity to rates.Is that is that wealth imperiled. You know Bank of America recently did some work on the S & P and figure it out with theduration of the S & P was and I think they came up with 35 36 years and composition makes a difference. A lot of high growthcompanies. But then Goldman did the same analysis for the Russell 1000 and came out with 22 duration for equities. Well ifyou start fooling around with the numbers you know 100 basis point move for twenty two duration zero coupon is a big move.You know it's down 20 percent. And I'm not saying that the market's going to go down 20 percent tomorrow but I am sayingthat there is sensitivity where that attachment point is. It's a whole nother question.Do you have any sense of when that might occur. You know why the market's not reacting at this point.I think it's really really difficult to know right now. It feels like we're in this Goldilocks moment with Delta variant behindus people coming back to value rates rising. I mean just in August you know rates were you know10 years at one time or 40 basis points or so. And you haven't seen any real move in equity. So it's really hard to know whenthat comes. But right now with earnings growing I think you know an end and again you know with the recent past that it only haspaid you to buy the dips. You know I think that mentality is kind of still in full swing.
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Elliott Co-CEO Says Rising Rates Threaten Stock Rally

October 5th, 2021, 1:39 PM GMT+0000

"I’m not saying that the market’s going to go down 20% tomorrow but I am saying that there is sensitivity," Jonathan Pollock, Elliott co-chief executive officer, says during an interview at the Bloomberg Invest Global conference. (Source: Bloomberg)


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