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00:00And that's what headquarters in New York is right here in London. I'm Caroline Hyde I'm Joe Weisenthal I'm Romaine Bostick. And another wild day in financial markets started lower ended higher the Dow closing at a record high. The question is what you miss. Wow. Did we miss. Jobs jobs jobs jobs jobs. What. What what. What. Well with jobless claims hitting a fresh pandemic low and about one million jobs is about to be added a of non-farm payroll report. The economic momentum is building. But as the Fed still ISE slack in the labor market wanting to support a more inclusive economy companies. Well they're complaining that they can't find all no back maybe enough workers and will dig into the so-called job paradox. What it may mean for wage inflation and of course the impact on all the markets from this. But we'll also debate the labor market in new areas the economy like crypto. How inclusive is the growth that says though. Well let's talk jobs maybe tips. If you're looking at Twitter maybe we debate whether the Fed thinks well shock horror if you've got some lack of risk appetite. Maybe things will fall. But overall we're going to look at what's happening. Times of risk appetite. Exactly right. This is the chart that I'm watching right now. Would versus would the ARC ETF my favorite measure of risk appetite. That's the blue line. The white line that managed by Kathy would the white line is the literal would ETF which captures the sawmills. We are this close to the literal word ETF opening arc over the last year. That tells you the real rotation that's happening in the economy. That is very close. We'll see. It may happen tomorrow Joe. I can't believe you get paid for this. I can't either. That's pretty cool. I think you get paid extra on tips if you're not careful. That's right. We can get tips on worthy right. Yeah. Tippett For that charge you you're watching their home. All right. Let's bring in Bloomberg Markets reporter Accreted Gupta. You know it really is totally something because we do have this big sell off. But overall there is a lot of optimism in the Dow Jones hit record highs today. S & P was up today. Commodities are up. So although we talk about these areas of weakness that measure risk appetite overall things are pretty good. They totally are. And you're seeing it. I mean you name some of the spots. But look at industrials. Look at transports. You really are seeing there are places where there is I don't wanna say exuberance but there is a lot of excitement in of course some of those reopening trade kind of related sectors. But I think the key thing to talk about when the time at tech and being this kind of gauge of risk appetite you have to think about what is tech responding to. It might just be in the middle of a narrative change right now. Kind of seems like we were talking about these massive yield surges or trade taking tech. Now tech is moving in tandem with the yield. So I think it's a pretty interesting dynamic to keep an eye on. Yes there's a great chart. Don CAC just put it to our attention of how they say in lock step of the last few days how yields and the NASDAQ has moved. But I'm also some saying maybe they're moving more to commodities. Maybe that's the inflation data is more where people are worrying about. And you know talking of wood. I mean that's a key one around that. But what else are you seeing in terms of tech. Looking at keep talking about bottlenecks right. I mean you just take a look at the chart at your on the screen right now. So important because I mean look this really shows you this yield sensitivity. We're looking at what the time frame is. And I think it's a one hundred twenty eight day correlation at the bottom. If you were to change that chart which is what I spent a few hours doing today to let's say you know a 30 day or 40 day correlation that's a very different story. You don't see that much red at the bottom which really tells you that that's not what tech is trading on anymore especially for the last four trading sessions like you mentioned Dan Curtis pointed that out. Big shout out to him. It's important to keep in mind though that there was this narrative about tech saying well you know what there is going to be this growth slowdown at some point forward. A lot of these companies. And now they're saying well actually we've had these monster earnings. We can still keep up our forecast. We're investing in things like electric vehicles and streaming et cetera. So when we're talking about perhaps rotation to things like commodities for example that doesn't necessarily mean you get rid of all things tech. It just means that when you're talking about those momentum traders this volatility trades big tech isn't necessarily the play. Yeah you definitely don't get rid of it. I'm curious when we talk about what we've been seeing in terms of how people have been positioning you haven't really seen a ton of money come out of the market. I think last week we saw a little bit of outflow into cash but for the most part this is truly a rotation just around the market. Absolutely. I mean my favorite function look at RG on the terminal is great because it was a literal a perfect circle like you just mentioned. It's great to think about four for tech in particular because I think you've had like check me on my numbers here. I think it's about a five percent drop in the last four trading sessions today not included because it's the first day in the green for the New York facing index after I think four days of a drop in line with that yield drop as well. But a 5 percent drop is you're halfway to a correction which I think you've seen a lot in tech not just recently but in the last few months and September. I want to say that since the September tech wreck it does this. It drops down 10 percent on a strong back. Stocks drop. But my point is they they correct literally to 10 percent. The. CAC amount to Fibonacci retracement to these technical levels and then come right back soaring. So I mean I think just because tech is down for maybe two weeks maybe that's not the end of the story not the end of the world for sure. Real quickly we're going to talk more about the jobs report in the next segment but we do get that report tomorrow. Interestingly I mean with S & P all these major indices doing really well real rates on the 10 year have not inched up a bit. In fact break evens continue to rise. Still the market is really convinced that the Fed is going to be on hold a long time not jack up their short term rates. Could that change. You know what have we got that 2 million that one analyst from Jefferies is predicting tomorrow. Could that be a potential monkey wrench or suddenly people start betting on faster tightening or faster taper. Totally. And I think that's where you're going to have to look at the margin. Right. We're talking my margins of peace now for earnings. You talk about margins of beef now for payrolls as well. You were expecting I think a 1 million is the consensus or just shy of 1 million. No it's not a million. Well now it's 1 million. But I mean I think that people are expecting that to be a number that's beaten. And it could be once again a question of the margin of the beat. And that's why we're going to see the action into yields. Yeah. And I mean we should point out I mean there's like basically about 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg that have an estimate of a million or more and that Jefferies economists at two point one million. And if that's what I mean seriously. Right. Well we'll invite that. Definitely fight them on the program if they get it right. Coming up here we are going to talk about U.S. employers in industries hospitality to manufacturing everything in between complaining about how they can't find workers. We've seen this anecdotally all over the place. People putting up signs talking about the labor shortage. Seems like it would be a simple solution to that. I don't know. Let's talk about it next. This is no. U.S. initial jobless claims falling today to a new pandemic low while the labor market is expected to continue roaring back at a record pace. We take a closer look at the growing numbers of employers claiming that worker shortages are potentially stunting their growth. Well U.S. jobs report out Friday. Bloomberg estimates showing payrolls may have risen by about nine hundred ninety five thousand higher than the gain in March while the unemployment rate may fall below 6 percent. More than almost one million increase in April. Employment would still leave payrolls about 7 million shy of their pre pandemic level. The unemployment rate is dropping quickly and these companies say it's making it harder for many pandemic affected businesses to find the workers they need to meet. Stimulus fueled increasing demand. Workers are quitting at rates they usually quit at during booms which suggests that this isn't just a sectoral thing but is a pretty pervasive phenomenon in the economy. That's particularly true in the lower paid in close contact hospitality and tourism sectors. Essential workers need more than a thank you. That's why they've been demanding to be respected protected and paid particularly during this pandemic where they've been showing up feeding us caring for us serving us and delivering packages for us. The National Federation of Independent Business reported that in March a record high percentage of small business surveyed said they had jobs they couldn't fill. That's 42 percent versus average since 1974. Just 22 percent. That being said so far the Fed isn't worried. Clearly there's something going going on out there as as many companies are reporting labor shortages. We don't see wages moving up yet. And presumably we would see that in a real you know in a really tight labor market. Anecdotally there are reports of employers raising pay to attract the workers they need. The pandemic distortions may make that hard to see. In Friday's jobs report. And if you take a look at the latest Bloomberg estimates for tomorrow's report as we were talking about earlier pretty strong economists expecting 1 million non-farm payrolls some going much higher than that. The unemployment rate expected to fall to five point eight percent 57000 new manufacturing payrolls in a year over year decline in hourly earnings. But that's largely due to composition effects with more lower income workers re-entering the labor force. Now joining us with more insight Bloomberg US economy reporter Olivia Rockman. Olivia thank you so much for joining us. It's interesting because we do have all these anecdotal reports about labor shortages but if a million people or maybe 2 million people got jobs in the month then there's still a lot of hiring going on. Right. The question really is going to be tomorrow that if we see a mess in terms of that million it could be because of these labor shortages. It is a number that's hard to quantify. However if we're not seeing numbers as high as economists might expect it could be that people just aren't looking for jobs. And remind us of the reasons I'm sure we've had several times but the exact reasons people are trying to say why people aren't looking right now at you. Right. Jerome Powell last week cited a number of reasons some of it is because there are ongoing child care responsibilities. Some schools are still closed. Some of this is because people are retiring and other factors include unemployment benefits as well as lingering health concerns from the pandemic itself. And so these are things that economists think will be resolved by the fall and could kind of eliminate any of these issues going forward by the fall here. So is the general consensus here though then with that actually half a pull down effect than on the jobs numbers down down the road. Economists this week told us that they think going into the summer they could hold back the monthly numbers and not in September if we're still not seeing robust hiring that would bring her back closer to where we were before they pandemic. Those are the other lingering issues that are concerning. What else are going to be watching tomorrow. Obviously very exciting day for all of us here. But what what number besides the headline do you think will tell us the most interesting stuff. Well we know that Powell and the Fed are looking at alternative measures of unemployment in order to decide whether or not they're going to raise rates. So that includes the unemployment rate for low wage workers. The unemployment rate for those without college degrees as well as the rate for a different minority group. And so we're going to be tracking this closely to get an idea of sort of what the Fed is. I want to thank you Olivia Roman. All eyes peeled for a while Jeffries is right. We get two million but many are thinking at least a million. And stay with us. Something that Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis president that's Neel Kashkari 20 Bloomberg Surveillance. Some are that I am a.m. New York Times sadly won't be cooking a steak with Joe but he will be joining that team. Meanwhile we have got a bit of news coming from Wal-Mart to buy telehealth provider Emmy M.D.. No terms but once again another company getting into the future of healthcare being tele medicine and Wal-Mart buying an E and D. Joe. All right. Coming up using bitcoin crypto to level the playing field. We'll talk to Tanya Davis at Penn State Dickinson law professor and chair of the Maker Foundation. About that next. Bloomberg. There's still maybe work to be done to diversify the crypto space. Many believe that the sector is actually a more diverse than others say tech industries and that the decentralized nature of crypto currencies may stand to benefit marginalized communities. So talking about all of this I want to welcome Tanya Evans a professor at Penn State Dickinson Law and chair of the Maker Foundation. Thank you so much for joining us. You know I do think there is this impression of crypto or like what a crypto bro is like or maybe people have something on their mind. But I'm curious from your perspective having worked in the space what is it actually as opposed to perhaps the outside stereotypes. It's a great question because there's not a lot of visibility for those who are actually in this space for what I'm really excited about is how many people particularly in black and brown communities have been reaching out for education. It may not be that every person is virtuous but they're asking the right questions. And so I'm really heartened to see so many people in the black community in general black women in particular very in the space. They may have some exposure to various more traditional investments. I think it's the black community has traditionally been focused on education as the way out of circumstances or real estate or insurance something that's more of the same less so on the side of appreciating the potential for appreciating assets and certainly capital assets in the way that virtual currency is a DAX. Tony. Talk to us about your journey of gathering information and getting into well the world of IP when it relates to block chain and cryptocurrency because you are obviously really focused on intellectual property on on entertainment law. How did you really discover this whole new world that needs your expertise. Twenty seventeen there was a lot of conversation around Bitcoin to be sure. I feel like it was around that time that Bitcoin was first starting to make the type of moves that that people's attention outside of the crypto space. And there was a conversation going on at the time about Bitcoin versus block chain. And some people said particularly in academic environments and more traditional environments. I don't know about Bitcoin but flat as a distributed ledger technology really to focus on that. I wasn't completely sold on the idea of crypto at the time. I hadn't yet taken my more complete deep dive down the rabbit hole but I knew that I had to educate the next wave of lawyers to be ready to represent those who were building in a web 3.0 environment. And I quickly became aware that this type of technology at least had the potential to disrupt across various sectors and industries. And it was really really important for the next wave of lawyers to be prepared for technologies business people those who were building on top of the infrastructure so that the entire industry as a whole the ecosystem I should say could move forward. Well then speaking of the legal issues here and more importantly here how do you sort of spin this out from just being an investment meaning folks either speculating on the price of it or using it as a store of value. Do you get to something that's tangible where the people that you say should be involved in this that they can actually find some other way to bridge this to whatever else they're doing. Would focus on the idea of generational wealth so often when you have speculators or investors that are in something for a short term experience it tends to be focused on that particular person maybe their family but not as a matter of generational wealth. And when I'm educating people about the space I really do talk about the long term opportunities in this space because we've only just begun to see the true power and potential of crypto currencies across the board in some of the more notable currencies. Obviously Bitcoin is. I call it the OIG in the space. Even though technically speaking there were digital assets that free date bitcoin. It was really the game changer because of the unique combination of peer to peer technology certainly the internet and cryptographic protocols that could encrypt information. And then I finally focus on the idea of not getting left behind with a Web 3.0 push in the same way that many in black and brown communities were left behind in the dot com boom bust and restructuring. This is a really unique opportunity with this next iteration of the Internet. Talk to us about maker sure you're the chairman of the foundation behind maker Dow. It's very interesting. It's probably hard for people to grasp wrap their heads around what specifically you're working on what Dow a decentralized autonomous organization is. Talk to us about that work and what you're excited about doing with this endeavor. The real excitement about the Maker Foundation which is part of the maker community with the maker down is self-sufficient run by governments token holders in are tokens who really decide in the future and the direction of the central core of this particular decentralized autonomous organization. And you can have many different types of battles with maker doubt if it facilitates a number of different things. But most importantly the stable coin which is empowering people to do a range of things in the decentralized finance area where you can what we say Justin Trudeau intermediate or really remove the traditional intermediaries standards gatekeepers for those who should participate but have traditionally been locked out. So from a black and brown community point of view when I think of some of the systemic issues and gatekeepers that have traditionally kept people off the sidelines or on the sidelines about decentralized autonomous organizations and certainly in the maker down of being something that is agnostic about participation there's no gatekeeper standing between you and holding a data point like that or folding and in chaos. And that's really the game changer when you think about protocols like the make or down. Tanya great to have you voice on the show. Thank you so much. Say welcome back again. Tony Evans Penn State. Dickinson Law and chair of the Makeup Foundation. Professor of course. Joe we've got 20 seconds. I'm not gonna ask you what you're watching but that doesn't mean. I'm excited about Bloomberg Technology is up next. Good evening everyone. This is Bloomberg.

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Bloomberg Markets: What'd You Miss? (05/06/2021)

Caroline Hyde, Romaine Bostick & Joe Weisenthal bring the news and analysis you may have missed after the closing bell on Wall Street. Today's show tackles a tight labor market and crypto Guest Today: Tonya Evans of Penn State Dickinson Law School (Source: Bloomberg)

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