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00:00JUDY: SORRY, YES? I MISSED YOUR QUESTION. ALIX: I JUST SAID HOW MUCH FURTHER IS IT GOING TO PUSH OUT THE EUROPEAN RECOVERY IF THEY WIND UP DUMPING THE J & J AND ASTRAZENECA AND FOCUS ON THESE MRNA? JUDY: YES, IT IS A GREAT QUESTION. IT IS QUITE DISASTROUS HERE. POLITICALLY, THIS SEEMS TO BE A PARALYSIS IN DECISION-MAKING. SECONDLY, THERE'S A HUGE COMMUNICATIONS DISASTER OVER THE ASTRAZENECA VACCINE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN PROVED THAT AT OVER 60 OR 70 YEARS OLD, IT DOESN'T MATTER. BY THE WAY, ANGELA MERKEL HAS GOT HER VACCINE WITH ASTRAZENECA TODAY. BIONTECH IS HOPEFULLY GOING TO FILL THIS GAP, REALLY PUSHING UP THE PRODUCTION. THEY'VE GOT A NEW PRODUCTION PLANT THAT'S ALREADY STARTED UP, AND THEY HOPE TO ROLL IT OUT OVER THE NEXT YEAR. BUT IT IS BECOMING VERY CRITICAL HERE. WE ARE IN AN ELECTION YEAR. THERE'S AN AVERAGE OF 300 PEOPLE DYING EVERY DAY. THE INFECTION RATE IS GOING UP. SOMEHOW, THERE IS TOTAL INFIGHTING, AND NO ONE IS MAKING SOLID DECISIONS ABOUT A LOCKDOWN OR WHERE WE GO FROM HERE, SO THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM, NOT HAVING THE JOHNSON & JOHNSON AND THE ASTRAZENECA FULLY ON BOARD. ALIX: IT IS INTERESTING BECAUSE IF THERE IS ONE COUNTRY I WOULD HIGHLIGHT IS NOT DOING THAT, IT WOULD BE GERMANY. SO CAN YOU HELP ME UNDERSTAND HOW THE RISING CASES AND DEATH TOLL, HOW NOT HAVING CERTAIN VACCINES, AND HOW THE CSU AND CDU PARTY SPLIT INFIGHTING IS ALL INTERCONNECTED? WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THAT FOR GERMANY? JUDY: THE SIGNIFICANCE IS THAT GERMANY HAS COME OUT VERY BADLY DEALING WITH THE THIRD WAVE. IT WAS VERY GOOD IN THE FIRST WAVE AND THE SECOND WAVE READ EVERYTHING WAS UNDER CONTROL. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THEY DIDN'T PREPARE FOR THE THIRD WAVE THEY KNEW WAS GOING TO COME. SECONDLY, THIS IS A HIGHLY BUREAUCRATIC COUNTRY. THE FEDERAL LEVEL IS ONE THING. STATES ARE TAKING THEIR OWN DECISIONS. BUT IT IS HIGHLY BUREAUCRATIC, AND IN AN ELECTION YEAR, SO MANY POLITICIANS ARE AFRAID TO MAKE DECISIONS. THE THIRD THING IS MERKEL DID COME OUT AND SAY WE NEED A SERIOUS LOCKDOWN FOR EASTER. EVERYBODY SAID WE ARE NOT PREPARED FOR THAT. SHE APOLOGIZED. EASTER WAS THE PERFECT TIME TO DO THIS LOCKDOWN. SO WE ARE COMING INTO THE THIRD WAVE, AND THE BLAME HAS BEEN PASSED AROUND AND AROUND. IT IS QUITE EXTRAORDINARY IN TODAY'S BUNDESTAG PARLIAMENT RE-DISCUSSIONS. IT WAS A BLAME GAME RATHER THAN TAKING ACTION. I KNOW SO MONEY DOCTORS WHO HAD THE ASTRAZENECA VACCINE, BUT BECAUSE OF THE COMMUNICATIONS BREAKDOWN AND BECAUSE OF THE PERCEPTION OF IT, PEOPLE WON'T TAKE IT. SO AT THE MOMENT, MORE AND MORE PEOPLE ARE WILLING TO GET THE VIRUS, AND THE DEATH RATES WILL INCREASE. THIS ELECTION YEAR IS TOTALLY LEADING TO PARALYSIS. ALIX: THAT IS A BIG DEAL. JUDY: IT IS A HUGE DEAL. ALIX: SO FOR A BROADER SENSE, HOW DOES THAT IMPACT THE EUROPE RECOVERY FUND, WHICH YOU COULD MAKE AN ARGUMENT IS NEEDED EVEN FASTER NOW IF WE DON'T HAVE THESE VACCINES? JUDY: YES, THERE ARE TWO ISSUES HERE. ONE IS THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY OF EUROPE, AND THE RECOVERY WILL BE SLOW. IF THERE ISN'T A MASS VACCINATION PROGRAM, THIS IS THE FIRST THING. SECONDLY, THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT WILL HAVE TO TAKE QUESTIONS ON THE EUROPEAN RECOVERY FUND. WE HAVE THIS IN THE PIPELINE AS WELL. ALL IN ALL, THE SENSE OF SLOWNESS COMEDY THE SENSE OF URGENCY -- OF SLOWNESS, THE SENSE OF URGENCY, THE SENSE OF WHERE WE ARE GOING ON THIS, IT JUST HASN'T TAKEN ROOT. IT IS VERY STRANGE BECAUSE GERMANY OF ALL COUNTRIES, THE BIGGEST ECONOMY, THE BIGGEST MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, IT SHOULD BE FORGING AHEAD AND LEADING THE PUSH TO GET AS MANY PEOPLE VACCINATED AS POSSIBLE. AND GUESS WHAT? LOOK WHO THE WINNERS ARE, THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM, WHO GERMANY MOCKED JUST A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO. ALIX: WE HAVE ITALY INCREASING THEIR BUDGET DEFICIT, MARIO DRAGHI TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY HOPED TO BE FINANCING WITH GOOD DEBT, ETC. WHO IS GOING TO LEAD OUT OF THIS? JUDY: IT IS A VERY GOOD QUESTION. GERMANY WILL COME THROUGH EVENTUALLY, BUT THERE'S ALREADY A HUGE DISPUTE AT THE EUROPEAN UNION UNHEALTHY BORROWING RATE FOR THIS HUGE ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN IS GOING TO BE FINANCED. WE DON'T KNOW THIS, BUT THIS SQUABBLING AT A TIME WHEN THE EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE PULLING TOGETHER, IT SHOULD BE LED BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION IN BRUSSELS, AND CERTAINLY PUSHED BY PRESIDENT MACRON AND CHANCELLOR ANGELA MERKEL. BUT WE DON'T SEE THIS HAPPENING, AND WE SEE ACTUALLY THE COUNTRY A FEW MONTHS AGO, WHEN THERE IS A FAIRLY -- A FEELING THAT EUROPEANS WOULD PULL TOGETHER, NOW WE SEEM TO BE ALL KNOWING OUR OWN WAY, AND ONCE AGAIN, THE EUROPEAN STATES ARE JUST LOOKING AFTER THEIR OWN INTEREST. AT THE MOMENT, THIS IS NOT VERY GOOD NEWS FOR THE IDENTITY AND THE REPUTATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, WHICH PROBABLY WILL PULL THROUGH, BUT IT IS GOING TO COST AN AWFUL LOT OF SOCIAL AND PALOOKA DAMAGE. ALIX: IF IT HAS -- AND POLITICAL DAMAGE. ALIX: IF IT HAS DAMAGE, WHAT DOES THAT LOOK LIKE? IF WE ARE LOOKING FOR A PERCENT GROWTH IN THE U.S., WHAT IS THE REALITY FOR EUROPE? JUDY: THE REALITY FOR EUROPE IS THIS IS GOING TO BE A VERY SLOW RECOVERY. JUST LOOK AT THE UN-INFLAME AT LEVELS IN SPAIN, PORTUGAL, IRELAND, AND BRITAIN -- THE UNEMPLOYMENT LEVELS IN SPAIN, PORTUGAL, IRELAND, IN BRITAIN, EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT IN THE EU. SECONDLY, THE TRAINING SCHEMES FOR GRADUATES DON'T EXIST. IT IS GOING TO TAKE A WHILE TO BOUNCE BACK NOW, TO GET INTO THE BIGGER GEO LYRICAL -- BIGGER GEO PALOOKA PROBLEMS -- BIGGER GEOPOLITICAL PROBLEMS, AGAINST CHINA. PERHAPS WE SEE A BIG GEOPOLITICAL TUSSLE BETWEEN THE AMERICANS AND GERMANY, GERMANY AND CHINA, BECAUSE GERMANY IS NOW GOING TO RELY ON CHINA FOR GROWTH AND FOR ITS EXPORTS. THE BIDEN ADMINSTRATION WANTS A UNITED CHINA FRONT. WE ARE IN FOR QUITE AN

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Carnegie Europe's Dempsey Predicts No Summer Vacation for EU

Carnegie Europe Senior Fellow and Strategic Europe Editor in Chief Judy Dempsey speaks to Bloomberg's Alix Steel about the EU lagging behind the U.S. and global growth forecasts as they consider not renewing some of the vaccine options on "Bloomberg Markets: European Close". (Source: Bloomberg)

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