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00:00When we want to know what the American people are thinking there is one person we go to that is famed pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz. And so thank you very much for being with us Frank. You understand this. Give us a sense because I saw some A.P. polling for example that said it's really really divided about in the middle about whether he should be convict or not. Is that what you're seeing. Well if you voted for Donald Trump 67 percent of those who voted for Donald Trump believe that he won the election and the election was stolen. And that's not only remarkable. That's dangerous for the economy. It's dangerous for the country is dangerous for the future. When you have that degree of people who simply distrust what actually happen when they reject the facts. You've got to be nervous. And the problem is that they're getting the information to affirm them rather than inform them. They're not curious about it. They're not open to being challenged about it. The numbers have stayed there now for the last couple months. And frankly David I'm nervous for the country that this impeachment trial starting tomorrow is going to heighten and and continue to divide us at a time when we need to be finding common ground. We'll see. That's the critical point seems to be frank because most observers do not expect them to get the two thirds majority required for conviction. The Senate and therefore people are saying including Democrats are saying no this is really something for the American people for us to lay out the case so they can see it. Is it likely that in fact they will persuade more people of their position by seeing it in the impeachment trial. And what I've been told by Democrats in the Senate they suggest is going to be like a movie like really powerful emotional presentation. And we're going to see footage that we've never seen before. We're going to hear from witnesses that we haven't heard from before. And they're going to lay it out as much as as a documentary would point by point less about the constitutionality about this and more about how it was wrong. Now on the Republican side this is going to give Donald Trump if he is acquitted it's going to give him the chance to say you see they tried a second time. They tried to take me down. And even though the Democrats control the Senate even they can't agree on this. I've been exonerated and we're going to get even with them for years. And now I'm frightened about the outcome of this because I think the Democrats are going to be able to make their case that what happened was horrific. And Trump is going to be able to make his case that he is a victim. So both sides will be even more entrenched even more divided. And there's no one in the middle that that really can can bring us all together. And Frank I'm curious from your talking to people the focus groups you do might the Republicans primary argument really appeal to a lot of Americans which is this maybe. I really disagree with what the president did maybe even think it was inciting insurrection. But he's gone. It's over. Let's move on because that's really the Republicans defense is you shouldn't be trying the guy after he's out of office. It's not is that the Republican defense but the a clear majority of Americans feel that way. Even those who want him convicted do think that this is about the past. But in the end this is all about the election in 2022. And the Democrats are doing everything they can to separate the Republican Party from the voters in the suburbs who need to bring the Republicans back in there. They go from two hundred and thirteen seats in the House to majority of 218. David our Senate is 50 50. Our House is 221 to 213. We've never had a government in a long long time that is this evenly divided. And so there's a lot at stake politically not just constitutionally with what's going to happen starting tomorrow. Well let's talk about 2022 in light of this impeachment trial we're going to see here. As you know better than I Frank if you go back through history traditionally the party that comes in loses a fair number of seats in the House and some in the Senate as well. The Democrats can't afford to lose almost any. What could turn that around is anything in this impeachment trial likely to change that pattern. They're trying to ensure that the votes that Donald Trump lost back in November don't return to the GOP and remember that even though Trump lost by four and a half percent the Republicans actually gained 15 seats in the House. So there are people who are willing to split their ticket vote against Donald Trump because they didn't like him. Those are primarily voters in the suburbs are women with children. And they're nervous that those people now that Trump is gone will return to the GOP. So they're trying to drive a wedge and they're going to use this trial to do it. But in the end these are economic voters. If they are better off two years from now than they aren't today they're more likely to reward the Democrats. If things have not improved in a couple of years they're more likely to punish them. But to get the advantage to seize the advantage those these next seven days are going to matter for the Democrats. Frank we have a viewer writing in actually with a question and that is by invoking this language or inciting might the Democrats actually be putting this social position down the road where they could be criticized. Because there's an awful strong language being used these days on both sides of the political equation. Does it make sense for them to start saying oh boy you're inciting now. That's impeachable. Well we know MAXINE Waters who's very important to viewers and listeners and she did that by saying to people challenge if you're a Donald Trump supporter challenged them take them on a restaurant take them on and gas stations or you had Representative Omar who said some very insightful things about Israel and the and the Jewish community that we've had both sides. And really we need to tone it down. It's one of the reasons why businesses have taken a step backward out of politics said that they're going to postpone their donations at least for a couple of years. They're sending a message. The economic community is sending a message to Washington. Tone it down in the end bring us together get the economy back on track address and resolve covered. And let's stop with this horrific hyper partisanship that's been so damaging to the country now for for over four years. And is there an openness on the part of voters that you talk with to toning it down. And let me connect it up with President Biden because whatever you think about what he's doing right now whether you agree or disagree with it I think it's fair to say he has toned it down to a significant degree. He is. But in the end in the end it's really about deeds rather than words. So he put forward a one point nine trillion dollar package. Did he compromise on that or is he willing to compromise on that. Is he willing to do one point six trillion. Is he willing to give the Republicans anything. And are the Republicans willing to come towards him acknowledging that he was elected president that he does that they do owe him some sense of leadership in this. The public is going to decide whether or not these people are sincere whether or not they're genuine. I will tell you that I am as frightened now as I have been ever in my professional life because there are more people who are not listening to each other. There are more people who have drawn those sharp lines. Joe Biden is the right person to have his president right now for his language. The question is do the deeds match the words. But that's the question isn't it Frank. And that's I think what the Biden research is confronting right now. The one hand if you actually compromise it looks like you really believe in the unity that President Biden talked about in inauguration speech. But you said a few minutes ago ultimately in 2022 it's going to be. Am I better off than I was two years ago. And maybe they think that one point nine trillion dollars every single penny of it is necessary to make sure they can deliver on that to the American people. They know that that if they spend the money now if they keep the money flowing into the economy they know what's going to make a difference made a difference for the last six months. But then we're going to have a debt that we're going to have higher taxes. We're going to have crowding out of the of the marketplace. So there are consequences to this. And the question that Joe Biden and his administration has to answer for the public at what point are we doing too much in the short term. That's going to have a negative impact on the long term and quite frankly for the Republicans. At what point do you have to help people who are struggling who are trying to make ends meet who are trying to get their lives back to normal. These are very legitimate questions. And both sides quite frankly David both sides have a legitimate argument to make. And one would hope that they would try to make that argument together.

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Trump Impeachment Trial Will Further Divide Country, Says Luntz

Pollster Frank Luntz talks about to expect from the second impeachment trial of former President Donald Trump. He appears on "Balance of Power." (Source: Bloomberg)

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