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00:00♪ YOUSEF: THIS IS BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE POLICE. -- BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK MIDDLE EAST. THE WHO SAYS CATCHING THE DISEASE ONCE MAY NOT PROTECT YOU FROM GETTING IT AGAIN. FINDING THAT COULD JEOPARDIZE EFFORTS FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE TO RETURN TO WORK AFTER RECOVERING. YOUSEF: MEANWHILE, GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS HAVE PRESSURE TO SUPPORT THEIR ECONOMIES. THE ECB IS SET FOR POLICY MEETINGS THIS WEEK. MANUS: SAUDI ARAMCO HAS BEEN REDUCING OIL PRODUCTION. YOUSEF: DEUTSCHE BANK REPORTS AN INCREASE IN NET INCOME. WE SPEAK TO THE CEO THIS HOUR. THIS IS DAYBREAK MIDDLE EAST. MANUS: YOU WANT TO BELONG STOCKS? DO YOU BELIEVE IN THE MULTIPLES? IS THERE A DISLOCATION GOING ON IN THE MARKET. WE CAUGHT UP WITH CARL ICAHN. HE SAYS STOCKS ARE OVERVALUED. THE VIRUS COULD CAUSE DOWNDRAFTS. THERE ARE 26 MILLION PEOPLE UNEMPLOYED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. HE SAYS MULTIPLES CANNOT BE JUSTIFIED AT THE MOMENT, TRADING AT 17 TIMES EARNINGS IS AN APPROPRIATE. THERE WAS ONE THAT GOT AWAY, ONE BREATH AWAY FROM JUNK. IN ITALY, THIS IS WHAT YOU'VE GOT, TWO NOTCHES ABOVE JUNK. WE HAVE S & P LEADING A NEGATIVE OUTLOOK ON PAPER. OUR HOUSE OPINION WRITER SAYS, WHAT IS THE POINT OF DOWNGRADING ITALY'S DEBT? CITIGROUP SAYS THEY SHOULD LOAD UP ON THE PANDEMIC PROGRAM FOR 1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS SKEWED TOWARD ITALY, AND THAT WILL TAKE THE SPREAD TO 200 OR BELOW. YOUSEF: LET'S TALK ABOUT THE FX MARKETS BECAUSE THEY HAVE NOT FOLLOWED THE LATEST UPSWING. DISAPPOINTING NEWS ON THE GILEAD DRUG FOR THE VIRUS. STILL CLOSE TO THOSE TWO WEEK HIGHS. THEY LOST POSITIONS IN TERMS OF THE SCALE, THE BIGGEST LONG POSITION SINCE JANUARY 2013. LET'S FLIP THE BOARD AND SHOW YOU WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH WTI. CRUDE OIL IN FOCUS. FIELD DEMAND IN TERMS OF CORONAVIRUS AND U.S. DRILLERS IDLED 60 RIGS THIS WEEK. THE WEEKLY TO KIND -- THE WEEKLY DECLINE WAS THE LARGEST IN 14 YEARS. WE ALSO HEARD FROM OIL COMPANIES MAKING DRASTIC CHANGES TO THEIR PLANS. GLOBAL CASES OF THE CORONAVIRUS HAVE TOPPED 2.8 MILLION, WITH MORE THAN 200. WORRYINGLY, THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION SAYS CATCHING COVID-19 ONCE MAY NOT PROTECT YOU FROM GETTING IT AGAIN. THAT FINDING COULD JEOPARDIZE EFFORTS FOR PEOPLE TO RETURN TO WORK AFTER RECOVERING FROM THE VIRUS. MEANWHILE, GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE TO SUPPORT THEIR ECONOMIES. THE ECB IS SET FOR POLICY MEETINGS THIS WEEK. WHAT WERE ACTION CAN WE EXPECT? LET'S BRING IN THE FOUNDER AND PRESIDENT. WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM. WHAT MORE IN TERMS OF ACCOMMODATION IS LIKELY TO COME OUT FROM THESE BIG CENTRAL BANKS ? GUEST: I THINK WE HAVE SEEN INTERVENTIONS BY THE WORLD CENTRAL BANK. IN TERMS OF INTERVENTIONS, WE ARE TALKING BETWEEN GOVERNMENT PACKAGES AND BANK PACKAGES. CENTRAL BANKS ARE NOW BECOMING NOT JUST THE MEASURES OF LAST RESORT, THEY ARE BECOMING THE BUYERS OF LAST RESORT. THEY ARE BUYING ACROSS THE BOARD. I DON'T SEE ANYMORE BECAUSE THEY'VE GOT THE PEDAL ALL THE WAY DOWN. I THINK THERE WILL BE MORE CENTRAL BANK AT THIS STAGE. WHAT YOU NEED TO FOCUS ON NOW IS RECOVERY, AND RECOVERY IS NOT ENTIRELY IN YOUR HANDS. YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT COVID AND THE WAVES OF COVID. IT IS HEALTH POLICY AND FISCAL POLICY THAT WILL BE IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF RECOVERY. THE MARKETS, I THINK, HAVE BEEN BOILED UP BY CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION, AND WE HAVE SEEN A BIG DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE AMOUNT OF LIQUIDITY BEING POURED INTO THE MARKETS AND IN THE ECONOMY. I THINK THAT IS THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE MARKETS RIGHT NOW. THAT DISCONNECT COULD MEAN YOU COULD HAVE A DOWNTURN AGAIN IN TERMS OF THE MARKETS. MANUS: I THINK THAT IS WHAT CARL ICAHN CALLED ON THURSDAY. WE HAD THE THREE CENTRAL BANKS. THE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE THAT THE FED WILL DO THE LEAST. WE HAVE AN OP-ED THAT SAYS THE FED SHOULD GO NEGATIVE. THE FED IS LEFT WITH NO GOOD ARGUMENT AGAINST GOING NEGATIVE. D.C. WILL BE SOME 1% -- WILL BE SUB-1%. GUEST: IS THERE ANY BENEFIT FROM GOING NEGATIVE? YOU ARE ALREADY INJECTING ALL THE LIQUIDITY THAT IS REQUIRED. YOU DON'T REALLY NEED TO GO NEGATIVE. IN PARTICULAR, YOU WANT TO HIT THE BANKS IF YOU GO WITH NEGATIVE RATES. WE SEE THAT HAPPENING IN EUROPE AND JAPAN. GOING NEGATIVE I DON'T THINK IS THE WAY TO GO. YOU HAVE ALREADY GOT SUBSTANTIAL W ♪ QE -- HALF SUBSTANTIAL QE. YOU WANT TO LOOK AT THE ECONOMIES FACING TREMENDOUS DIFFICULTIES. THEY HAVE GOT SEVERAL TRILLION COMING DUE THIS YEAR WHERE THEY MAY NOT BE ABLE TO PAY. THAT COULD MEAN WE GET WIDESPREAD FORCE IN EMERGING MARKETS, AND THAT COULD GO BACK TO DEVELOPING MARKETS. I THINK THAT IS WHERE A LOT OF THE FOCUS SHOULD BE HAPPENING. YOUSEF: IN TERMS OF PREPARING FOR THE WORLD AFTER COVID-19, IS THERE PERHAPS A REALISTIC ASSUMPTION TO BE MADE THAT THERE IS GOING TO BE A LOT MORE DEGLOBALIZATION? THAT IS ONE OF THE POINTS OF YOUR RESEARCH. AND IS THAT SOMETHING YOU WOULD LIKE TO HAMMER HOME FOR INVESTORS AS WELL, THAT WE NEED A NEW PRISM TO LOOK AT THE INVESTING WORLD WITH COVID-19? GUEST: I THINK THAT IS ABSOLUTELY SPOT ON. I THINK WE ARE SEEING IF YOU LOOK AT TRADE OPENNESS AS AN INDICATOR OF GLOBALIZATION, IT IS DECLINING. WE HAVE SEEN TARIFFS AND TRADE WARS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND CHINA, THE TWO BIGGEST ECONOMIES OF THE WORLD. BUT IN ADDITION TO THAT, YOU HAVE PROTECTIONISM, NATIONALISM GROWING. BUT NOW, YOU HAVE THE COVID EFFECT. THE COVID EFFECT WILL NEED MUCH MORE FOCUSED BY COUNTRIES ON ITEMS LIKE FOOD SECURITY, THEIR SUPPLY CHAINS, ON HEALTH AND HEALTH IMPORTS AND WHETHER THEY WANT TO OPEN UP. I THINK THE NARRATIVE, AND THIS IS IMPORTANT, THE NARRATIVE IS CHANGING, AND IT IS MOVING AWAY FROM GLOBALIZATION. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT A POST-COVID WORLD IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE. WE MIGHT HAVE STRUCTURAL CHANGES. MANY BUSINESSES MAY NOT SURVIVE POST-COVID, AND WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE MOMENT. I THINK THIS ISSUE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN BUSINESS AND ECONOMIES SHOULD WORRY INVESTORS BECAUSE WE SEE A U-SHAPED RECOVERY. I DON'T SEE A U-SHAPED RECOVERY. MANUS: HEREIN LIES THE POINT WHERE YOU HAVE 26 MILLION PEOPLE UNEMPLOYED RIGHT NOW IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. COMPANIES -- MANY COMPANIES WILL NOT MAKE IT THROUGH. HE IS NOT COMFORTABLE FOLLOWING THE FED. HE SUGGESTS THERE IS A POTENTIAL ZOMBIFICATION IF THE FED BUYS STOCKS. MORE IMPORTANTLY, AND THIS IS PERHAPS THE MOST TELLING, THERE IS A COGNITIVE DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE DATA AND WHERE WE WILL END UP, IN OTHER WORDS BETWEEN 26 MILLION PEOPLE UNEMPLOYED AND WHERE WE REALLY WILL END UP. GUEST: THAT IS CORRECT. THE POINT IS WE WILL HAVE THAT REMAINING HIGH UNTIL 2021. IT IS NOT JUST A 2020 PHENOMENON. SUPPLY CHAINS HAVE GOTTEN THE SHOCK. THE POINT ABOUT THE SUPPLY CHAINS IS THEY ARE NOT JUST DOMESTIC SUPPLY. IT IS NOT JUST EXTERNAL SUPPLY CHAINS, WHICH IS USUALLY WHAT WE LOOK AT, I.E. INTERNATIONAL TRADE. YOU NOW HAVE DOMESTIC SUPPLY CHAINS BEING DISRUPTED. MANUS: WE WILL DIG INTO SOME OF THOSE THEMES. NASSER SAIDI, OUR GUEST HOSTS. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ MANUS: THERE IS A REBOUND FROM HISTORIC CONTRACTION IN THE SECOND QUARTER. IT IS ALREADY LOSING PACE AMONG SIGNS OF THAT DOMESTIC DEMAND IS UNDER PRESSURE. MARCH DATA SHOWED A PICKUP FROM THE SLUMP IN THE FIRST TWO MONTHS OF THE YEAR. THE EARLIEST INDICATORS FOR THE MONTH SHOWED DOMESTIC DEMAND AS STILL VERY WEAK IN THE REMAINING QUARTERS. WITH US IS NASSER SAIDI. WE LOOK AT EIGHT VERY BIG INDICATORS. TO A CERTAIN EXTENT, WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT IS NO DETERIORATION, AND PERHAPS A BOTTOMING OUT. BUT THE EXPORT ORDERS, WHICH ARE RE-COLLAP SING, WE ARE GOING TO HAVE A DEEPLY UNDER SYNCHRONIZED RECOVERY IN THE WORLD, AND THAT IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE CHINA THAT WE KNEW. NASSER: VERY TRUE. HELLO? MANUS: HI, NASSER. THAT IS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR THE CHINESE, THIS GLOBAL RECOVERY. NASSER: VERY TRUE. YOU REMEMBER THAT THEIR MAIN CLIENTS ARE EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES. AS LONG AS EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES DON'T PICK UP, YOU DON'T GET A BIG PICKUP IN EXPORT ORDERS. SO THE CHINESE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO RELY ON ASIA, AND ASIA IS NOT GOING TO BE SUFFICIENT IN TERMS OF SECURING THE EXPORT RECOVERY. FROM AN ECONOMIC POLICY POINT OF VIEW, WHAT WE SHOULD EXPECT IS THE CHINA STIMULUS IN TERMS OF STIMULUS, GOING BACK TO MORE INVESTMENTS TO DOMESTICALLY, TRYING TO REVIVE DOMESTIC DEMAND, COMPANY TAXES, CENTRAL BANK INTERVENING, LOWER REQUIREMENTS, LOWER RATES. I THINK CHINA WILL HAVE TO TURN DOMESTIC. EXTERNALS ARE NOT GOING TO BE THERE. I THINK THAT IS A MAJOR POINT, ALSO IN THE UNITED STATES. ONCE THE UNITED STATES STARTS PICKING UP, POTENTIALLY IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE THIRD QUARTER, EVEN THEN IT IS NOT GOING TO HAVE DEMAND FOR ITS OWN PRODUCT. MUCH OF IT IS GOING TO DEPEND ON DOMESTIC DEMAND AND NO LONGER ON EXTERNAL DEMAND. THAT GOES BACK TO OUR DISCUSSION ABOUT POTENTIAL DEGLOBALIZATION AND IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT THROUGHOUT 2020 AND INTO 2021. YOUSEF: WE KNOW THAT A LOT OF CORPORATE'S HAVE BEEN REVISITING THE CORPORATE SUPPLY CHAINS. A LOT OF THEM GO THROUGH CHINA. IS THERE AN EXPECTATION THAT OUT OF COVID-19 WE MAY SEE MORE PRESSURE ON THE CHINESE ECONOMY BECAUSE OF THAT? WOULD YOU SAY THE CHINESE ECONOMIC MOMENTUM IS LESS RESILIENT THAN SOME OF ITS WESTERN PEERS? NASSER: WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THAT HAPPENING. WE KNOW THAT THE JAPANESE, FOR EXAMPLE, HAVE STARTED GIVING INCENTIVES TO THEIR COMPANIES TO STOP COUPLING FROM CHINESE PRODUCERS AND FOCUSING MORE ON JAPANESE-BASED PRODUCERS. THAT WILL MEAN HIGHER COSTS. I THINK IT MEANS A PROBLEM FOR CHINA BECAUSE IT'S MODEL HAS BEEN BUILT ON DEVELOPING A NETWORK ON INTEGRATING PARTICULARLY THE ASIAN ECONOMIES INTO THE CHINESE ECONOMY AND ENSURING THE FUTURE MARKETS, WHETHER IN AFRICA, AMERICA, OR ASIA. THAT BUBBLE MIGHT GET DISTRACTED. THE BIG QUESTION IS GOING TO BE ON TWO FRONTS. WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO DOMESTICALLY TO PROVIDE STIMULUS? BUT THE OTHER ISSUE IS CHINA HAS EXTENDED SUBSTANTIAL LOANS, PARTICULARLY TO EMERGING MARKETS . MANY OF THOSE EMERGING MARKETS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PAY. WILL CHINA ALSO NOW INTER-THE FRAY OF SAYING -- NOW ENTER THE FRAY OF SAYING, WE NEED TO HELP EMERGING MARKETS, AND IF FORBEARANCE -- AND GIVE FORBEARANCE? THEY MAY REDUCE EVERYTHING TO HAVE REQUIRED OVER THE PAST 10, 15 YEARS. YOUSEF: IT HAS BEEN GREAT CATCHING UP WITH YOU. WE APPRECIATE YOUR TIME. NASSER SAIDI. UP NEXT, THE 2020 FORECAST HAS UNCERTAINTY. INTEL SURPRISED ANALYSTS WITH ITS QUARTER ESTIMATES. WE HEAR FROM THEIR CEO NEXT. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ YOUSEF: UNCERTAINTY HAS SURPRISED ANALYSTS WITH THEIR ESTIMATES, DRIVEN BY WORK FROM HOME DEMAND. CEO BOB SWAN SPOKE TO BLOOMBERG. BOB: WHAT A WONDERFUL START TO THE YEAR FOR OUR COMPANY IN INCREDIBLE CHALLENGING TIMES WITH REVENUE GROWTH OF 23% , AND EARNINGS UP OVER 60%. IT WAS A GREAT START TO THE YEAR AND MUCH STRONGER THAN WE HAD ANTICIPATED A FEW MONTHS AGO. AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND QUARTER, WE RAISED OUR OUTLOOK ON THE TOP LINE. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE GUIDED TO LOWER GROSS MARGINS. I THINK INVESTORS ARE CONCERNED BY THAT. BUT OUR MESSAGE HAS BEEN THE LOWER GROSS MARGINS IN THE SECOND QUARTER IS A FUNCTION OF TWO THINGS, BOTH OF WHICH ARE GOOD FOR OUR COMPANY. FIRST, WE WILL QUALIFY A VERY EXCITING NEW PRODUCT IN THE THIRD QUARTER THIS YEAR. THERE ARE A LOT OF EXPENSES IN THAT PRODUCT FLOWING THROUGH THE BOTTOM LINE IN THE SECOND QUARTER, BUT IT COMES BACK IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR. SECONDLY, WE CONTINUE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS ON OUR PROCESS YIELDS IN THE FACTORY. WE HAVE GONE FASTER THAN WE ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE OF THOSE REASONS, GROSS MARGINS WILL COMPRESS IN THE SECOND QUARTER. WE PUT THOSE AS HEALTHY THINGS AND AN INDICATION THAT WE CONTINUE TO EXECUTE DESPITE THE INCREDIBLE CHALLENGING TIMES WE ARE OPERATING IN. ANCHOR: HAVE WE SEEN THE PEAK THIS YEAR FOR PEOPLE WORKING FROM HOME? GIVEN THAT YOUR Q2 FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT LIGHT, IT WOULD SEEM THAT IS THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING. BOB: OUR OUTLOOK FOR Q2 IS SOLID DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH, UP AROUND 12% IS WHAT WE ARE ANTICIPATING. THAT IS COMPRISED OF TWO THINGS. ONE IS OUR DATA CENTRIC COLLECTION HAS GROWN IN THE MID-20%, SO STRONG GROWTH OF OUR DATA CENTRIC BUSINESSES. ON THE OTHERS IN THE PE, WE SEE IT ROUGHLY FLAT OR UP SLIGHTLY IN THE SECOND QUARTER. THAT IS COMING OFF A VERY STRONG 14% GROWTH IN THE BUSINESS IN THE FIRST QUARTER. WE DO NOT EXPECT PC TO GROW IN DOUBLE-DIGIT BY ANY STRETCH. WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT IS 25% GROWTH IN DATA CENTRIC BUSINESSES, A RELATIVELY FLAT THE BUSINESS AFTER VERY STRONG FIRST QUARTER GROWTH. GUY: YOU TALK ABOUT SIGNIFICANT ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IN THE GROWTH TODAY. YOU ARE NOT CLEAR ON WHAT THE SECOND HALF WILL LOOK LIKE. WHAT IS IT ABOUT THE SECOND HALF YOU HAVE NOT FIGURED OUT YET? BOB: A FEW THINGS, GUY. THE FIRST HALF WAS MUCH STRONGER THAN WE ANTICIPATED, AND IT HAS BEEN A FUNCTION OF STRENGTH ACROSS THE BOARD. CLOUD GROWTH IN THE FIRST QUARTER WAS NORTH OF 50%. THE PRESENCE WE HAVE IN THE COMMUNICATION SECTOR GREW AT 33% . ENTERPRISE AND GOVERNMENT GREW 35%. AS I SAID EARLIER, PC'S GREW 35%. DEMAND HAS BEEN REALLY STRONG, AND IT IS STRONGER THAN WE EXPECTED, FROM MAYOR LEE DRIVEN BY WORK AND STUDY FROM HOME. THOSE DEMANDS PLACE THE NEED FOR CONNECTIVITY GREATER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN, AND THE NEED FOR THAT ESSENTIAL DEVICE CALLED THE PC TO BE ALWAYS ON, ALWAYS CONNECTED, ALWAYS WITH YOU DRAWS HIGHER DEMAND THAN WE HAD EXPECTED. MANUS: CITIES AND STATES ACROSS THE U.S. ARE SUSPENDING EVICTIONS IN FORECLOSURES TO HELP TENS OF MILLIONS OF AMERICANS WHO HAVE LOST JOBS. OUR GUEST WARNS THAT WITHOUT THE REVENUE, THE PROPERTY MARKET IS ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE. HE SPOKE EXCLUSIVELY TO BLOOMBERG. GUEST: I THINK WHEN WE TALK ABOUT COLLAPSE, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THREE SEPARATE THINGS. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM THAT3 SUPPORTS THE FINANCIAL MARKET, WHICH IS INSTITUTIONAL BANKING, THE SHADOW BANKING SYSTEM, AND INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS ALL OVER THE WORLD ARE BUYING BONDS. THAT SYSTEM IS DELICATE, IT IS FRAYED. IT RELIES ON ONE THING, CASH FLOW. WHEN CASH FLOW STOPS, YOU HAVE A PROBLEM. THE RULE OF LAW TRADITIONALLY IN NORTH AMERICA IS WHEN THE CASH FLOW STOPS AND YOU ARE A DEADER, THERE IS A LEGAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROTECT THE LENDER. IF YOU ARE A LANDLORD AND RENTERS DO NOT PAY, THERE IS A LEGAL SYSTEM WHICH PROTECTS THE LANDLORD. ALL THOSE OPTIONS ARE OUT THE WINDOW. WE ARE IN CHAOS. IT IS CORDING TO A LIQUIDITY PROGRAM AND THIS INTERIM CESSATION OF REVENUE IS THE QUEST. WE HAVE NOT HAD A CRISIS LIKE THIS. WE HAVE NEVER HAD ONE WHERE WE HAVE A GOVERNMENT TAKING REVENUE. ANCHOR: HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE SITUATION? HOW BAD IS IT NOW? HOW BAD IS IT LIKELY TO GET? TOM: I THINK IT DEPENDS ON, TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION, HOW SOON DO WE GET TO WORK? WHICH IS POLITICALLY FAR BEYOND MY JOB DESCRIPTION. BUT IF AMERICA CAN GET BACK TO WORK IN WAVES RESPONSIBLY AND STARTS CREATING INCOME, IF YOU TOOK THE REAL ESTATE WORLD, YOU TOOK THE BEST TODAY BEING TECHNOLOGY AND DIGITAL, SO RADIO CELL TOWERS, STORAGE, FIBEROPTICS, PUBLIC STORAGE DOES NOT REQUIRE PEOPLE AND STAFF. THE WORST BEING RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY. WHERE IT IS JUST STOPPED. WE DON'T GO BACK TO WORK, THE BIG PROBLEM WE HAVE IS THIS SEPARATION BETWEEN THE HAVES AND HAVE-NOTS GETS WORSE AS THIS GOES ON, AS WE APPROACH 3 MILLION PEOPLE -- 30 MILLION PEOPLE OUT OF WORK. IT COULD GET DRASTIC. ANCHOR: WHAT DOES DRASTIC MEAN? PLEASE CONTINUE THAT TODD. -- PLEASE CONTINUE THAT THOUGHT. TOM: IF WE LOOK AT PAST CRISES, AND YOU ARE TOO YOUNG TO REMEMBER, I USED TO HAVE BLUNT HAIR AND BLUE EYES. WHAT HAPPENS IS REAL ESTATE DOES NOT GO ANYWHERE. IT JUST GETS REPRICED. CAPITAL GETS WIPED OUT. THE HOLDERS OF EQUITY AND THE HOLDERS OF DEBT AND THE OCCUPANTS OF SPACES MERELY ROTATE, AND THE CAPITAL STRUCTURE GETS REALIGNED. WHO IS THE BENEFICIARY OF THE DISASTER? ENDS UP BEING THE LITTLE PEOPLE, NOT THE BIG PEOPLE. BECAUSE THE BIG PEOPLE JUST RESTRUCTURE, WHETHER IT IS DEBT, WHETHER IT IS EQUITY, THEY RESTRUCTURE. SO CRISIS ES IN HOUSING MARKETS IN A FLUID MORTGAGE SYSTEM, BANKS DO NOT WANT TO HOLD RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGES. THEY PACKAGE THEM AND SELL THEM TO BONDS ALL OVER THE WORLD. THAT IS WHAT KEEPS THE MORTGAGE MARKET GOING. FOR MOST OF THE $33 TRILLION IN NORTH AMERICAN RESIDENTIAL, WE HAVE LIVED IN A GOLDILOCKS ERA FOR 10 YEARS. SINCE 2010, IT HAS -- IT IS GONE. SO IS THE DESIRE TO HAVE NEW HOMES START IN MUNICIPALITIES AND STATES THAT ARE IN -- ON THE VERGE OF BANKRUPTCY. THE COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE MARKET SANK. YOUSEF: UP NEXT, WHEN IT SEEMS THE WHOLE WORLD WAS SELLING OIL LAST MONDAY, SOMEONE WAS BUYING. CARL ICAHN. WE WILL HEAR FROM HIM NEXT, AND GET INTO OTHER KEY THEMES IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ MANUS: SAADI ARAMCO -- FOR THE OPEC PLUS OUTPUT CUTS ACCORDING TO THE SAUDI INDUSTRY OFFICIALS FAMILIAR WITH THE MATTER. ARAMCO HAS BEGUN TO CURTAIL PRODUCTION FROM ABOUT 12 MILLION BARRELS A DAY TO 8.5 MILLION. WHEN IT SEEMED THE WHOLE WORLD WAS SELLING OIL LAST MONDAY, A FAMILIAR NAME WAS BUYING. CARL I CAN SPOKE -- CARL ICAHN SPOKE TO BLOOMBERG EXCLUSIVELY. CARL: WE KEEP IT PRETTY WELL HEDGED, BUT EVEN THE HEDGES COULDN'T STOP US FROM LOSING SOME MONEY, BUT WE STILL HAVE QUITE A BIT, SO I'M NOT CRYING ABOUT IT AND WE HAVE -- I'VE ALWAYS KEPT A LARGE AMOUNT OF CASH OR CAP -- CASH EQUIVALENTS FOR A STORMY DAY, SO I THINK THERE ARE GOING TO BE VERY INTERESTING TIMES AHEAD AND WHILE YOU HAVE TO BE EXTREMELY CAREFUL IN THIS MARKET, AND WE CAN DISCUSS THAT, I THINK THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME GOOD OPPORTUNITIES, BUT I CAN'T TALK ABOUT IT SHORT-TERM. IN THE SHORT TERM, I THINK WE MAY HAVE SOME BIG DOWNDRAFT. THAT'S WHERE I AM WITH THAT. > > WHERE ELSE HAVE YOU FOUND OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MONEY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, WHICH ADMITTEDLY ISN'T THAT EASY. I GATHER YOU BOUGHT SOME OIL MONDAY. WHY DON'T YOU TELL ME ABOUT THAT. CARL: THAT'S A MUCH SMALLER ITEM . WHEN OIL WENT DOWN TO -- WE OWN A REFINERY, WHAT I THINK IS A GOOD REFINERY, WE OWN 70% OF IT AND WHEN THAT -- WHEN OIL STARTED SINKING LIKE THAT, I CALLED THEM UP. USUALLY I DON'T GET MICROMANAGED -- DON'T MICROMANAGE. I SAID STORAGE SPACE, BUT I WILL SAY THEY DID A GREAT JOB AS THEY SET IT UP REAL QUICKLY AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT, YOU NEVER SEE THIS, BUT RELATIVELY SPEAKING, IT IS NOTHING LIKE CMBX , BUT IT WAS REALLY FASCINATING. ILL NEVER SEE THAT AGAIN IN HISTORY, I DON'T BELIEVE, WERE THEY HAVE TO PAY YOU, THEY HAVE TO PAY YOU TO TAKE THEIR OIL WHICH WAS UP TO $35 A BARREL. IT WAS AN INTERESTING POINT IN HISTORY BECAUSE YOU'VE GOT TO LOOK AT RISK REWARD AND SOMETIMES WHEN YOU DO THOSE FUTURES -- AND THEY HAVE FUNDS THAT DO THE FUTURES AND THE SAME THING AGAIN AS YOU HAD IN 2008 OR IN ANY OF THESE TIMES BEFORE THE MARKET REALLY BREAKS AND PLAYING THE FUTURE MARKET IN THE OIL GAME OR IN ANY COMMODITY, FOR THAT MATTER IS NOT FOR THE FAINT OF HEART. > > RIGHT NOW, LET'S TURN OUR ATTENTION BACK TO THE CORONAVIRUS. RIGHT NOW, IT IS WREAKING HAVOC. I MENTIONED OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM. THE COMPANY IS SO CASH-STRAPPED, IT IS HAVING TO PAY WARREN BUFFETT IN STOCK FOR THE FINANCING YIELD YOU OPPOSED. THAT MUST MAKE YOU BOILING MAD. > > WELL , AND I HAVE SAID IT, AND I'M NOT GOING TO BELABOR IT ANYMORE BECAUSE WE HAVE THREE PEOPLE ON THAT BOARD. I CAN'T FREELY SPEAK ABOUT IT, SO I RESPECTFULLY DISAGREE A LITTLE BIT WITH WHAT YOU ARE SAYING, CASH-STRAPPED. IN OTHER WORDS, I THINK OCCIDENTAL HAS A LOT OF GREAT ASSETS. THAT BEING SAID, I CAN'T ARGUE WITH YOU THAT IT WAS ONE OF THE MOST RIDICULOUS DEALS I'VE EVER SEEN AND I'VE SAID THAT PUBLICLY , BUT THOSE DAYS ARE OVER. WE ARE WORKING TOGETHER AND HOPEFULLY, I THINK, THAT THERE ARE THINGS SHAREHOLDERS WILL EVENTUALLY BE REWARDED, THERE, I THINK. THE RISK REWARD IS IN YOUR FAVOR. MANUS: NEXT, A 5.5 PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN THE FIRST QUARTER NET INCOME. WE SPEAK TO THE LENDER'S CEO. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ YOUSEF: EARNING SEASON ROLLS ON. RAGHAVAN SEETHARAMAN REPORTED PROFIT OF 5.5% YEAR ON YEAR. OTHER METRICS LIKE EARNINGS-PER-SHARE REMAIN THE SAME AS A YEAR EARLIER. FOR MORE PERSPECTIVE ON HOW THE BANK IS HANDLING THE DISLOCATIONS OF THE CORONAVIRUS AND FALLING OIL PRICES, WE ARE JOINED ON THE LINE BY DOHA BANK CEO RAGHAVAN SEETHARAMAN. LET'S GET STRAIGHT TO IT. WHAT ARE YOU DOING IN TERMS OF KEY STRATEGY CHANGES TO PROTECT THE BANK'S PROFITABILITY? > > IT IS A FIVE PRONGED STRATEGY. NUMBER ONE -- RESTRUCTURING, NUMBER FIVE IS REALIGNING THE BUSINESS MODEL. THESE ARE THE FIVEFOLD STEPS WE ARE TAKING AND CLEARLY THE OPPORTUNITIES ARE THERE TO SUSTAIN PERFORMANCE IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM. MANUS: IN THE FIVE R'S, OBVIOUSLY DRIVEN BY THE AMOUNT OF PROVISIONS YOU ARE FORCED TO TAKE WHEN COMING. CAN YOU GIVE US GUIDANCE IN THE PROVISIONS AND HOW THAT WILL HIT EARNINGS THIS YEAR? RAGHAVAN: WE HAVE REFLECTED IN OUR PROFIT-LOSS ACCOUNT, FROM 120 MILLION LAST YEAR FIRST QUARTER TO 118 MILLION PLUS. THAT IS 50% MORE THAN LAST YEAR. IF YOU LOOK AT THE NONPERFORMING ASSETS, 5.7% AND 80% INCLUDING THIS RESERVE. THAT IS A TREND WE HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING -- GLOBAL RISK. THIS IS A TIME WHERE WE CAN CONSOLIDATE OUR POSITIONS. THERE IS NO SUPPLIES OFFERING IN THE MONTHS TO COME OR QUARTERS TO COME. YOUSEF: WHAT ABOUT YOUR OPERATIONAL COSTS? YOU MENTIONED RESTRUCTURING. CAN YOU GIVE US MORE COLOR INCLUDING JOB CUTS? WOULD THAT INCLUDE RETRACEMENTS FROM CERTAIN GEOGRAPHIES? RUN ME THROUGH YOUR THINKING. RAGHAVAN: WE HAVE BEEN IN A TRANSFER STATION -- TRANSFORMATION MODEL FOR TWO YEARS AND THERE HAS BEEN A GOOD RESULT. NUMBER ONE WHEN IT COMES TO THE GLOBAL RISK INTEGRATIONS, THE DYNAMICS HAVE CHANGED IN THE LAST 23 CHANGED IN THE LAST 23 YEARS AND ARE REMODELING TO CONCENTRATE MORE ON -- CONTRACT FINANCING. WHEN IT COMES TO TRANSACTIONS ON THE RETAIL SIDE, WE ARE WAITING FOR THE DIGITAL ADVANTAGE AND WE WILL CROSS RETAIL WITH STOCKS AND INSURANCE, INTEGRATING AS ONE. THAT IS A SOLUTION. THAT WILL ENHANCE OUR PROFITABILITY IN THE COMING DAYS -- YEARS. MANUS: WHAT GUIDANCE CAN YOU GIVE US ON DIVIDENDS? ANY PLANS TO WITHHOLD DIVIDENDS? THAT IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING FROM THE SWISS. RAGHAVAN: THE DATA MIX HAS PROVED WE HAVE TAKEN BRUTAL MEASURES OF SKIPPING THE DIVIDEND, CONSOLIDATING PROFIT TO RESERVES. THAT HAS BEEN THE POSITION. WE'VE SEEN WHAT IMPACT WE ARE GOING TO HAVE ON THE COVID AND IS REQUIRED FROM AN REGULATIVE PERSPECTIVE AND WHAT MEASURES ARE REQUIRED IN TERMS OF DIVIDEND POLICY IN THE COMING QUARTERS. WHEN THE PANDEMIC WILL BE CEASING, WHAT POLICY WILL HAPPEN IN THE ECONOMY. IT ALL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. I'M OF THE OPINION WE HAVE TO BE CAUTIOUS. YOUSEF: WHAT HAPPENS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR? ARE YOU CONFIDENT THERE IS GOING TO BE SOME V-SHAPED RECOVERY, AND HOW IS THAT REFLECTED IN YOUR EARNINGS OUTLOOK? RAGHAVAN: TO BE HONEST, I DON'T FORESEE IN GLOBAL TERMS A V-SHAPED RECOVERY. GLOBAL ECONOMIES ARE GOING TO GO UNDER THE WATERS. IT MEANS NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES AND THE FED HAS TO -- IN THE COMING FED MEETINGS AND TO STIMULATE THE ECONOMY'S, THERE IS GLOBAL CONSENSUS FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY NEED SYNCHRONIZED AND INTEREST RATE, TO HAVE LIQUIDITY AND COSTS WILL BE CHEAPER, LIQUIDITY WILL BE ENHANCED. IT TAKES TWO YEARS ASSUMING THE SECOND HALF. OTHERWISE, WE ARE IN A TECHNICAL POSITION TODAY. NO PART OF THE WORLD WILL BE AN EXCEPTION. MANUS: CAN I RETURN TO THE DIVIDEND QUESTION? I WANT TO UNDERSTAND CONVERSATIONS YOU HAVE HAD WITH REGULATORS IN REGARDS TO DIVIDEND. IS THERE PRESSURE ON THE BANKS TO RETAIN CAPITAL AND REFRAIN FROM DIVIDEND? RAGHAVAN: REGULATORS ARE ALWAYS CONSERVATIVE AND CAUTIOUS. THEY LOOK AT FINANCIAL STABILITY. THEY HAVE ALWAYS BEEN SUPPORTERS -- THAT HAS TO DO WITH THEIR PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP MODEL. THEY ARE ASKING TO CONSERVE RESOURCES AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A STRONG BALANCE SHEET. WE HAVE BEEN PAYING A GOOD DIVIDEND AND LET'S SEE HOW IT GOES IN THE COMING QUARTERS. WITH THE SHAREHOLDERS AND REGULATORS COMING TOGETHER. YOUSEF: HOW MUCH SUPPORT HAVE YOU GOTTEN FROM THE CENTRAL BANK OF QATAR, AND ALSO, ALONGSIDE THAT, WHAT OBLIGATIONS HAVE COME WITH THAT? HAVE YOU BEEN FORCED TO LEND TO ENTITIES THAT YOU WOULD NOT NECESSARILY BE LENDING TO? RAGHAVAN: QATAR'S REGULATORY SUPPORT HAS ALWAYS BEEN PROACTIVE, FROM 2008 TO DATE. WE HAVE BEEN FULLY SUPPORTED. RESERVES ARE VERY SOLID, TWICE GDP. THEY HAVE SUPPORTED FOR A LIQUIDITY PURPOSE AND THERE IS NO QUESTION OF FORCE. THE GOVERNMENT SUPPORTING THE ECONOMY. SUPPORTING THE BUSINESS IN TERMS OF AFFECTED SECTORS AND POSTPONEMENT OF THE LOAN OR INTEREST AND WITH THE BANKS SUPPORTING SMALL AND MEDIUM-SIZED AND AFFECTED SECTORS IN TERMS OF CASH DUTIES AND TO MAKE SURE WE HAVE THE NEXT SIX MONTHS. PLEASE OUR PROMULGATION'S REQUIRED TO STIMULATE THE ECONOMY. THAT IS WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS DOING. MANUS: WE ARE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND PROVISIONS, DELINQUENCIES, A HOST OF TERMS THAT FRIGHTEN MOST BANKERS, BUT WHAT EXPOSURES DOES DOHA BANK HAVE? WHAT IS THE SIZE OF YOUR EXPOSURE AND HAVE YOU MADE PROVISION FOR THAT, SIR? RAGHAVAN: WELL, WE HAVE SYNDICATION AS PART OF OUR LENDING THROUGH MULTIPLE BANKS AND WE HAVE TAKEN RIGHT MEASURES. WE HAVE GUARANTEE OF THE KEY PEOPLE WHO ARE FOUNDERS OF THESE INSTITUTIONS, SO ESSENTIALLY, C WHAT TAKES PLACE -- LET US SEE WHAT TAKES PLACE ONCE IT IS CONCLUDED AND I THINK THESE ARE IMPORTANT INSTITUTIONS FOR THE COUNTRY AND DEFINITELY GLOBALLY WE HAVE -- THINGS IN THE COMING DAYS AND WE WILL COME TO CONSENSUS WITH THE COLLECTIVE BARGAINING POLICY AND SEE WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE IN TERMS OF PROVISION. WE WILL TAKE CARE OF IT. MANUS: LET'S HOPE THE COLLABORATIVE GUARD IS WHAT YOU NEED. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US TODAY ON BLOOMBERG FROM DOHA BANK, THE CEO. STANDARD CHARTERED SEE SAUDI ARABIA'S GROWTH SHRANK 4.5%, QUITE A CONTRAST FROM THEIR PREVIOUS EXPECTATION OF 5% GROWTH. JOINING US IS THE SENIOR ECONOMIST OF THE MINA REGION. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE THIS MORNING. YOU WOULD MAINTAIN A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN YOUR NUMBERS HAS TO DO WITH AN EARLIER IMPLEMENTATION OF AN OPEC PLUS CUT. TAKE US THROUGH YOUR THINKING. > > GOOD MORNING. YOU ARE QUITE RIGHT, THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN OUR OUTLOOK ON THE SAUDI GROWTH FORECAST PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE OUTFLOW FOR THE OIL SECTORS. WE WERE EXPECTING DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH IN THE OIL SECTOR ON THE BACK OF THE EARLIER COLLAPSE OF THE OPEC PLUS AGREEMENT, BUT MOST RECENTLY, RECONSTITUTED SAUDI OIL OUTPUT IS LIKELY TO SHRINK INSTEAD OF INCREASE AND IT IS IN THAT CONTEXT WE HAVE GONE FROM HEADLINE GROWTH OF 5%, PRIMARILY OIL DRIVEN TO ONE THAT IS NOW NEGATIVE AT 4.5% LARGELY ON THE BACK OF OIL BUT ALSO TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER NONOIL OUTLOOK AND INSTRUCTION TO ECONOMIC ACTIVITY WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. YOUSEF: I UNDERSTAND IT IS BECOMING THE NORM FOR QUITE A FEW GOVERNMENTS TO ISSUE BONDS AND SPEND MORE TO OFFSET THE IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS. SAUDI ARABIA IS SUGGESTING THEY MAY ISSUE ANOTHER 100 BILLION ON TOP OF THE 120 BILLION THEY HAVE REISSUED. ARE THE NUMBERS GETTING CONCERNING FOR YOU AND IF NOT, WHAT IS FROM A FISCAL PERSPECTIVE? BIRTA TAL: YOU ARE QUITE RIGHT IN THE SENSE THAT ALONGSIDE THE REDUCTION IN OIL OUTPUTS WE EXPECT, WE MAINTAIN OUR FORECAST OF $45 A BARREL FOR 2020 AND THAT IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SITUATION WE WERE EXPECTING. IN A SENSE, OUR COMMODITIES DOESN'T NECESSARILY SEE THIS AS BOOSTING OIL PRICES. FOR SAUDI ARABIA, THE SAME OIL PRICE WITH A LOWER LEVEL OF OUTPUT MEANS FISCAL FINANCING REQUIREMENTS ARE GOING TO BE LARGER THAN EXPECTED. IN TERMS OF THE FISCAL DEFICIT, 14.8% OF GDP AND THAT IS LIKELY HIGHER THAN OUR FORECAST OF 15% GDP. SAUDI ARABIA -- PUBLIC THAT SIDE TO WHETHER THIS IN THE NEXT YEAR WITHOUT A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN PUBLIC DEBT, BUT IT DOES MEAN THE FINANCING REQUIREMENTS ARE GOING TO BE LARGER THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT YEARS. MANUS: WE WERE CHATTING WITH CARL ICHAN. WE WILL NEVER SEE THAT AGAIN IN HISTORY, NEGATIVE OIL PRICES. DO YOU AGREE? > > ON THE OIL PRICES, PRIMARILY WITHIN THE WTI CONTRACT AND DISLOCATION GIVEN THE CONSTRAINTS WE SAW AROUND PHYSICAL DELIVERY AS IT RELATES TO THE U.S. MARKET IN PARTICULAR, WHERE IF YOU LOOK AT THE BENCHMARK, THAT REMAINS FAIRLY RESILIENT. IT IS NO WONDER THE MARKET HAS BEEN VERY CONCERNED IN THE NEAR TERM IN TERMS OF THE PHYSICAL DELIVERY, STORAGE CAPACITY , BUT I THINK IT IS THOSE OUTPUT CUTS NOW COMING IN AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS, WE DO EXPECT AN AVERAGE OF AROUND $23 A BARREL FOR THE SECOND QUARTER AND AS I SAID FOR THE FULL QUARTER, THE FULL YEAR OF 20, AROUND $35. YOUSEF: LET'S CUT TO THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES FOR ADDITIONAL CONTEXT, WE HAVE THE ECTR FUNCTION LAID OUT COME THE BILATERAL FLOW OF TRADE FROM THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, CHINA, TOGETHER WITH INDIA. GIVEN THE ECONOMY DEPENDS SO MUCH ON VULNERABLE SECTORS LIKE AVIATION, TOURISM, IS A RECOVERY IN THE UAE GOING TO BE DELAYED COMPARED TO OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD? > > OF COURSE AGAIN THERE ARE TWO PARTS OF THIS. THE FIRST IS THE OIL SECTOR, WHICH WILL MEAN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A CONTRACTION IN OIL GDP, WHICH WILL WEIGH ON HEADLINE GROWTH. THERE IS A NONOIL SECTOR, PARTICULARLY IN THE UAE, IS VULNERABLE TO NOT ONLY THE SLOWDOWN BUT THE WEAK CONTRACTION OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY WE ARE CHECKING SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION. SOME OF THOSE TRADE PARTNERS YOU MENTIONED ARE AT DIFFERENT STAGES IN THE RECOVERY. STARTING POINTS DIFFER. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR OIL TO COME TO A LEVEL WHERE IT IS ANYWHERE CLOSE TO NORMAL. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE RISK AND WE ARE ALREADY EXPECTING BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS, WE ARE EXPECTING -- IN THE NONOIL SECTOR. LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH 2020, OUR BASELINE IS FOR AROUND 1.5% GROWTH SO THAT SUGGESTS WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A RECOVERY, BUT IT IS STILL OPEN TO MANY UNCERTAIN FACTORS IN TERMS OF THE VIRUS SITUATION GLOBALLY. YOUSEF: ALWAYS A PLEASURE TO HAVE YOU ON THE PROGRAM. THE SENIOR ECONOMIST AT STANDARD CHARTERED. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. ♪ YOUSEF: THE PRIME MINISTER HAS LAUNCHED A SCATHING ATTACK ON THE COUNTRY'S CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR AS THE CURRENCY'S VALIANT SINKS ON THE BLACK MARKET -- VALUE SIX ON THE BLACK MARKET. THEREFORE MAKE A GROUP TO NEGOTIATE ON TERMS UNDER THE DEFAULTED BONDS AND WHAT COMES NEXT IN THIS COUNTRY'S ECONOMIC SAGA THAT HAS LASTED SOME TIME NOW? > > YOU KNOW, IT IS HARD TO REMEMBER IT HASN'T BEEN THAT LONG. EARLIER IN THE FALL, EVERYONE THOUGHT THE COUNTRY'S BONDS WERE A GOOD BET, BUT YOU ARE RIGHT, THE BOND HAS ESSENTIALLY SPIRALED ON THE UNOFFICIAL -- THE POUND HAS SPIRALED ON THE BLACK MARKET OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND THAT IS CAUSING DISTRESS FOR THE COUNTRY'S POPULATION. EARLIER THIS MONTH, THE LEBANESE BANKS STARTED TO ALLOW U.S. DOLLAR ACCOUNT HOLDERS TO EMPTY THEIR ACCOUNTS AT RATES WEAKER THAN THE 1500 POUNDS TO THE DOLLAR LEVEL AND THAT WAS REALLY THE FIRST SIGN AUTHORITIES ARE ABANDONING A DECADE OLD EXCHANGE-RATE PEG. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW THE IMF RESPONDS TO THE PLANS LEBANON HAS PROPOSED, THE GOVERNMENT HAS PROPOSED. UNDER THE PLAN, YOU WOULD SEE A GRADUAL CHANGE TO THE PEG STARTING IN 2021 BUT AS YOU SAY, WE HAVE THIS COMMITTEE FORMING WITH ASHMORE FIDELITY AMONG THE LARGEST PLAYERS. THEY WILL BE ASSERTING THEIR BELIEFS OF WHAT THE COUNTRY SHOULD DO TO RETAKE ITS FINANCES AND STABILIZE ITS VALUE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE CDS ON LEBANON'S BONDS WAS FINALLY PRICED, GIVEN A FINAL VALUE OF 14% WHEN THAT SETTLED LAST WEEK. MANUS: GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US. TALK TO ME ABOUT TURKEY. IT HAS ANOTHER $15 BILLION IN STIMULUS. SIMONE: YEAH, AND THIS WAS IMPORTANT FOR THE BROADER ECONOMY. ONE WOULD BE A LITTLE BIT FORGIVEN FOR THINKING THE LAST FIVE WEEKS OF GAINS IN THE TURKISH STOCK MARKET AND STRONG PERFORMANCE OF THE TURKISH STOCK MARKET SIGNAL THE MARKETS HAVE BEEN HAPPY. FOR TURKEY, THAT IS NOT REALLY THE CASE SINCE THERE HAS BEEN SUCH PRESSURE ON THE LIRA, AND THAT IS CLEAR IF YOU LOOK AT TURKEY ETF'S THAT'S A U.S. DOLLAR DOWN 50% OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS. YOUSEF: THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THAT. THAT IS SIMONE FOXMAN LIVE FROM DOHA. OVER THE NEXT FIVE TRADING DAYS, THERE IS A MEETING FROM THREE TOP CENTRAL BANKS, SEPARATE MEETINGS AND THAT WILL BE THE FED, THE ECB, AND BMJ. THE WORLD LOOKS FOR MAYBE MORE POLICY RESPONSES TO OFFSET THE IMPACT OF THE CORONAVIRUS. MANUS: THERE IS A CRACKING ARTICLE ON THE BLOOMBERG TERMINAL. THE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE THE FED WILL DO LESS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE ITALIAN GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET OPENS TOMORROW MORNING. YOUSEF: MICROSOFT, BOEING, HSBC, APPLE, AND AMAZON REPORT. PLENTY MORE COVERAGE TOMORROW.

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'Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East' Full Show (04/26/2020)

"Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East," live from Dubai, connects Asian markets to the European opens. The show focuses on global macro issues with a Middle Eastern context. (Source: Bloomberg)

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