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  • 00:00AXEL THANKS I WANT TO FIRST ASK YOU ABOUT ONE OF FRANCINE ' S INTERVIEW SUBJECTS, CHRISTINE LAGARDE, INCOMING PRESIDENT OF THE ECB. WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT HER ABILITY TO GET MONEY OUT OF THE GOVERNMENTS, LIKE GERMANY, THAT THE MARKET IS SAYING NEEDS TO PUT FORWARD FISCAL STIMULUS? AXEL: WE ARE STILL VERY MUCH DRIVEN BY MONETARY POLICY, ONLY GAME IN TOWN SCENARIO. CENTRAL BANKS STEP IN TIME AND TIME AGAIN TO SAVE THE ECONOMY FROM A HIT. EUROPE IS IN A DOWNTURN. WE ARE NOT YET IN A RECESSION. GERMANY IS BORDERING ON THE SECOND DOUBLE-DIP TECHNICAL RECESSION, SO THINGS ARE NOT GOING WELL. THIS IS NOT THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE FISCAL POLICY IN GERMANY SHOULD BE OUT A BIG SURPLUS, LIKE 3%. FISCAL POLICY NEEDS TO REACT, SO THE CALL FROM CENTRAL BANKS FOR FISCAL AND STRUCTURAL POLICY TO TAKE MORE OF A RESPONSIBLE APPROACH IS STILL WARRANTED, BUT I DO NOT SEE ACTION ON THE HORIZON. THE ONLY THING THAT NEEDS TO BE DONE IS DRIVE FORWARD FISCAL POLICY AND STRUCTURAL POLICY. IN GERMANY, THERE SHOULD BE LONG-TERM INVESTMENT ORIENTED INFRASTRUCTURE EXPENDITURE. THE EASIEST THING IS A TAX REFORM. IF YOU DON ' T WANT TO DO AN INCOME TAX REFORM, YOU CAN DO A CORPORATE TAX REFORM. TRUMP HAS BASICALLY ELIMINATED THE DIFFERENTIAL BENEFIT THAT EUROPEAN TAX REGIME HAS WITH LOWER RATES. FOR CORPORATE ' S, THE U.S. IS TAX COMPETITIVE AND WE ARE SEEING THE IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY. EUROPE HAS NOT RESPONDED. MATT: PETER ALT MEYER SAYING HE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT CORPORATE TAX REFORM WITH ALL OF SCHULZ, -- OLAF SCHOLZ, BUT CRITICISM THAT THE PEOPLE -- THERE HAS BEEN SO MUCH TALK ABOUT HELICOPTER MONEY, A FISCAL MONETARY COLLABORATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT FOR CENTRAL BANKS? AXEL: NEW TOOLS HAVE BEEN USED BECAUSE RATES HAVE BEEN NEGATIVE BOUND. THERE IS A LIMIT TO HOW LOW NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES CAN GO BECAUSE ULTIMATELY IT WILL DRIVE OUT CASH FROM THE ECONOMY. THEY ARE FLOODING THE MARKET WITH LIQUIDITY. THAT DOES NOT LEAD TO INVESTMENTS BECAUSE WHILST LIQUIDITY IS THERE, YOU NEED INVESTABLE AND BANKABLE PROJECTS. THE GOVERNMENT CAN PLAY A FACILITATIVE ROLE BY HAVING EXPANSIVE INVESTMENT POLICIES. GERMANY HAS A BACKLOG ON INFRASTRUCTURE. MANY AREAS WHERE YOU COULD TO LONG-TERM, IMPACTFUL INVESTMENTS THAT YOU COULD FUND. GERMANY NEEDS TO MOVE INTO THAT SPACE. TAX REFORM IS AN OBVIOUS TOOL, AND IF YOU NEED TO HAVE THOSE EYES ON THE CONSUMER AND CORPORATE, YOU SHOULD HAVE A COMBINATION OF INCOME TAX REFORM AND CORPORATE TAX REFORM. THE LAST THING WE HEARD OUT OF GERMANY IS IT WILL NOT HAPPEN ANYTIME SOON, BUT IT SHOULD BECAUSE THE U.S. HAS CHANGED THE NAME OF THE GAME WITH CORPORATE TAXES BEING COMPETITIVE. IT IS BETTER TO SHORT PROFITS IN THE U.S. FOR TAX REASONS, THEN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. MATT: WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT MARIO DRAGHI ' S NEGATIVE RATES INJURED -- EXPERIMENT? HAS IT SAVED THE DAY AND IS IT TIME TO MOVE ON? AXEL: I DON ' T THINK IT SAVED THE DAY. THE SIDE EFFECTS ARE PRONOUNCED. YOU CAN SEE IN THE BANKING SYSTEM, EVERY YEAR WITH NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES, INTEREST INCOME OF BANKS GOES DOWN. THE MAJOR PROJECT OF -- PRODUCT OF EUROPEAN MARKETS IS THE 10 YEAR FIXED. INTEREST RATES START IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY IN SAFE HAVEN COUNTRIES LIKE GERMANY, THEY REMAIN THERE FOR 10, 20 YEARS OUT. BANKS IN SAFE COUNTRIES LIKE GERMANY ARE DOING LESS WELL THAN PERIPHERAL COUNTRIES THAT ARE LESS RESPONSIBLE LIKE ITALY. A DIFFERENT INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT, SO IT HAS DIFFERENT IMPACT ON COUNTRIES THAT THE CORE LIKE GERMANY AND ITALY. THAT IS WHAT CENTRAL BANKS CANNOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT, BUT NEVERTHELESS THEY PRODUCE THESE SIDE EFFECTS. MATT: WHAT KIND OF EFFECT HAS IT HAD ON A BANK LIKE YOURS, UBS, WHEN YOU ARE TRYING TO PASS ON NEGATIVE RATES TO DEPOSITORS? HAVE YOU SEEN OUTFLOWS IN YOUR WEALTH IS THIS? AXEL: WE ARE DOING HIGHER LEVELS OF DEPOSIT, AT THE LEVEL OF ONE MILLION OR 2 MILLION. IT IS AN ONGOING DEBATE THROUGHOUT EVERY BANK BECAUSE WE HAVE THE MOST NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT OF MOST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES. THE LONGER WE STAY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, THE INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT ALL BE PASSED ON. -- WILL BE PASSED ON. WE HAVE ABSORBED IT INTO OUR PROFIT MARGINS. THAT IS NOT SOMETHING BANKS CAN DO FOREVER, SO IN THE SHORT TERM YOU CAN EXPECT PROFITABILITY TO BE LOWER BUT LONG-TERM, YOU NEED TO PRICE OUT NEGATIVE RATES. SOONER OR LATER, BANKS WILL BE FORCED IN THAT DIRECTION TO BRING THE NUMBERS FURTHER DOWN, AT WHICH THEY START CHARGING BANKS. MATT: YOU HAVE BROUGHT IN SOMEONE TO RUN YOUR WEALTH MANAGEMENT WHO IS EMBROILED IN A FIGHT WITH TIDJANE THIAM THAT LED TO HIM BEING FOLLOWED UNDER SUSPICION OF POACHING. DO YOU STILL FEEL CONFIDENT IN THAT DECISION? AXEL: HE IS NOT WITH US, SO THAT IS AN ISSUE WITH HIM AND HIS FORMER -- FORMER EMPLOYER. WE ARE WATCHING BUT NOT COMMENTING. MATT: PART OF YOUR JOB IS MANAGING BIG, POWERFUL PEOPLE TO RUN THIS BIG INSTITUTION. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WAS A CLASH OF EGOS AT THE TOP OF CREDIT SUISSE. ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT PUTTING HIM -- LETTING THEM TOGETHER? AXEL: NO, I AM NOT. WE HAVE MADE OUR DUE DILIGENCE AS A BANK AND MAKING SURE THERE WILL BE NO REGRET MOVES. WE HAVE DONE OUR DUE DILIGENCE AS LATE AS TODAY, AND THIS IS AN ISSUE THAT WE DO NOT WANT TO COMMENT ON. WE ARE NOT PART OF THIS DISCUSSION. MATT: WHAT ABOUT GENERALLY THE PRACTICE OF FALLING BANKERS WHO LEAVE POACHING CLIENTS, AND TALENT IS SOMETHING THAT HAPPENS ON A REGULAR BASIS. IS THIS SOMETHING UBS WOULD DO? AXEL: THERE IS A PRACTICE IN THE MARKET AND IF IT IS GOOD PRACTICE THAT FOLLOWS, THERE IS FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT BETWEEN JOBS BETWEEN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS. IT NEEDS TO BE ORDERLY AND BETWEEN CONTRACTUAL ARRANGEMENTS. THIS IS WHAT WE FOCUS ON. EVERYTHING NEEDS TO BE BY THE BOOK AND THAT IS MY SOLE FOCUS. I THINK THAT IS PART OF COMPETITION AND IF THINGS DON ' T HAPPEN BY THE BOOK, I AM NOT IN FAVOR OF DOING IT. MATT: LET ' S TALK ABOUT THIS FAMILY OFFICE EVENT. MORE THAN HALF OF A NET WORTH INVESTORS ARE WORRIED ABOUT A RECESSION AND A LOT ARE MOVING TO CASH. MORE INTERESTING IS THAT A LOT OF THEM, ESPECIALLY THE YOUNGER GENERATION, IS INVESTING IN LONG-TERM SUSTAINABLE ESGS ASSETS. IS THAT A TREND? > > IT IS ONE OF THEM FASTEST-GROWING CATEGORIES, OVER 70% IN FOUR YEARS. THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE PORTFOLIO OF THEIR PARENTS AND FAMILY, AND REENGINEERING IT TOWARDS THEIR INVESTMENT LEAVES. MANY LOOK AT IMPACT INVESTING, ENVIRONMENTAL FRIENDLINESS, AND ARE RESTRUCTURING THE PORTFOLIO AS SOON AS THEY INHERIT THAT. THAT HAS KICKED OFF A DEMAND FOR SUSTAINABLE ASSETS. THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH IN THE WORLD TO PLEASE THAT DEMAND, SO WE NEED TO GENERATE ASSETS RATHER THAN TRADE EXISTING ASSETS. THAT IS WHERE THE CAPABILITIES OF UBS COME IN HANDY. WE NEED TO MAKE THE TRANSITION FROM A LESS CARBON PRODUCING ECONOMY AND UBS SEES ITSELF AS A FACILITATOR. MATT: A LOT OF YOUR CLIENTS WOULD BE HIT BY -- AND THIS IS A BIG WHAT IF -- BERNIE SANDERS PROPOSED AN 8% WEALTH TAX ON MULTIMILLIONAIRES AND BILLIONAIRES IN THE U.S. HOW MOBILE IS THIS WEALTH? HOW POSSIBLE OR LIKELY IS THAT, A TAX THAT WOULD CUT THEIR WEALTH IN HALF, TO LEAD TO MONEY LEAVING THE U.S.? AXEL: MANY ARE NOT OVERLY INVESTED ANYWAY AND HAVE SUBSIDIARIES AROUND THE GLOBE. MANY SHOW PROFITS AT THE SUBSIDIARY LEVEL. I THINK GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT IS WHAT WE ARE GOOD AT AND GLOBAL FAMILY OFFICES IS THE MAJOR COUNTERPARTY WITH WHICH WE WORK. IT IS A MILLIONAIRE AND BILLIONAIRE FAMILIES WITH WHICH WE WORK, AND THEY ARE GLOBALLY DIVERSIFIED. MANY OF THEM ARE VERY MOBILE. YOU HAVE SEEN MAJOR FAMILY OFFICES MOVE FROM THE U.K. TO SINGAPORE TO DO BY, -- DUBAI. AND GLOBAL WEALTH IS FLEXIBLE. THE ABILITY TO TAX AND THIS CATEGORY -- IN THIS CATEGORY IS LESS. THEY VERY OFTEN GO WHERE THERE IS AN INTERESTING TAX DEAL FOR THEM, COMPLYING WITH ALL REGULATIONS AND TAX REGULATIONS. I WOULD NOT OVERESTIMATE THE ABILITY FOR LOCAL TAXES WITHOUT TAKING RE-OPTIMIZING DECISIONS AFTERWARDS. IF YOU ARE UNDER A U.S. TAX REGIME AS AN INDIVIDUAL, YOU ARE UNDER U.S. TAX CODE GLOBALLY, BUT IT IS INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, THERE IS A LOT MORE FLEXIBILITY. MATT: AXEL WEBER, CHAIRMAN OF UBS AT THEIR ANNUAL FAMILY
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UBS's Weber on Economic Risks, Negative Rates, Central Bank Policy

  • Bloomberg Surveillance

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September 25th, 2019, 10:39 AM GMT+0000

UBS Group AG Chairman Axel Weber talks about the German economy, negative interest rates and central bank policy. He speaks with Matt Miller in Zurich on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)


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