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00:00JOINING US IS AN ANALYST WHO CURRENTLY HAS A SELL RATING ON DEUTSCHE BANK. WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? HOW MANY JOB LOSSES COULD WE HAVE, AND ARE WE REALLY CERTAIN THIS MERGER WOULD HAVE POLITICAL SUPPORT OF PEOPLE IN GERMANY? > > FIRSTLY, IT IS NOT A MERGER. IT WOULD BE A TAKEOVER. DEUTSCHE BANK WOULD TAKE OVER COMMERZBANK. IF YOU LOOK AT THE SIZE OF BOTH BANKS, CLEARLY TORTURE WOULD MAKE A BID FOR COMMERZBANK SHAREHOLDERS -- CLEARLY, DEUTSCHE WOULD MAKE A BID FOR COMMERCE BANK SHAREHOLDERS. THERE SHOULD BE 20,000 TO 40,000 JOBS. AND IT IS NOT THE IDEA OF DEUTSCHE BANK TO MAKE A BID THERE. THERE IS PRESSURE FROM THE GERMAN GOVERNMENT THAT BOTH THINGS ARE NOT PROBABLE IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. REGARDING YOUR QUESTION, IF GERMANS WOULD ACCEPT THAT, IT DEPENDS. REGARDING THE JOB CUTS, IT IS NOT A PROBLEM, BUT GERMANS WILL ASK A PRICE. FRANCINE: YOU HAVE A SELL RATING. WITH THE MERGER PAINTED TO A BUY OR HOLD RATING? DIETER: WE WILL HAVE TO SEE. WHAT IS THE OUTCOME, WHAT THEY ARE TELLING ANALYSTS REGARDING JOB CUTS AND POSSIBILITY -- PROFITABILITY TARGET SO FAR. DEUTSCHE BANK WANTS TO BE A FURTHER GLOBAL INVESTMENT BANK. THEY HAVE MADE A LOT OF LOSSES OUT OF THIS STRATEGY THE GERMAN BUSINESS HAS BEEN, SO FAR, NOT A KEY FOCUS OF DEUTSCHE BANK. THEY DO NOT HAVE A STRINGENT STRATEGY IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. THEY DECIDED TO GO OUT AND SELL WITH AN IPO TO ANOTHER BANK IN 2015, AND THEY COULD FIND A BUYER. THEY DECIDED TO REINTEGRATE THE BANK. DEUTSCHE IS NOT REALLY INTERESTED IN COMMERZBANK, AND COMMERZBANK HAS NOTHING THAT WOULD HELP DEUTSCHE BANK TO KEEP THEIR BIG INVESTMENT PLAYER. TAYLOR: FROM WHAT I CAN SEE, WE DO NOT HAVE ANY INDICATION YET THAT THIS IS A STOCK OR CASH TO THAT DEAL. HOW DO YOU EXPECT FINANCING TO GO, AND WHAT IS THE FAIR VALUE WOULD LIKE TO SEE FOR THE TAKEOVER OF COMMERZBANK BY DEUTSCHE BANK? DIETER: THERE IS A LOT OF SPECULATION THAT DEUTSCHE NEEDS FOR THE TAKEOVER CAPITAL INCREASE. I AM NOT SO SURE. THE -- FOR $.30, YOU GET SHAREHOLDER VALUE OF $1 BILLION, SO THIS WOULD BE A LUCKY BUY. IF YOU ' RE CONSOLIDATING COMMERZBANK, MAKE A PROFIT OUT OF IT, THERE IS A REVALUATION OF MAYBE 10 BILLION EUROS OR 15 BILLION EUROS. MAYBE YOU NEED FRESH CAPITAL FOR A RESTRICTED PERIOD OF TIME FOR INTEGRATION COSTS, BUT IT COULD BE LIMITED.

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40,000 Jobs May Be Lost in German Bank Merger: Analyst

Dieter Hein, an analyst at Fairesearch, discusses the possible merger between Deutsche Bank AG and Commerzbank AG and the resulting job cuts should the deal go ahead. Hein, who has a sell rating on Deutsche Bank, speaks from Frankfurt on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

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