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00:00RELIEF FROM THESE EXTREME EVENTS. WE ' RE NOT BACK TO NORMAL. FRANCINE: WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP CAN ACHIEVE WITH CHINA, THE CHINESE JUST THINK -- ARE WE GOING TO GET A WORSE DEAL? PETER: I THINK THAT IS WHAT MANY CHINESE HAWKS THINK. I THINK THEY WELCOME THE CONCESSIONS, THE UNILATERAL CONCESSIONS THAT ARE COMING FROM BEIJING. THEY ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE DEEP STRUCTURAL ISSUES THAT HAVE TO DO WITH CHINA SUBSIDIZING ITS OWN FIRMS AND THE TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY. I THINK THE THING IS, RIGHT NOW YOU HAVE TO VIEW THIS TIME IN NEGOTIATION IN THE CONTEXT OF A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. TRUMP IS NOT GAINING VERY MUCH ALTITUDE ON THE SHUTDOWN. HE DID NOT HELP HIMSELF WITH THE SPEECH LAST NIGHT, SO YOU MAY BE LOOKING FOR A DEAL SOMEWHERE ELSE. TOM: WONDERFUL TO HAVE YOU WITH US. YOU MENTIONED HIS SPEECH LAST NIGHT. AUSTIN IS DISTANT FROM LAREDO. I WOULD LOVE YOUR THOUGHTS ON THE ABILITY TO PUT A PORTABLE BETWEEN THESE TWO NATIONS. PETER: IT WOULD TAKE A LOT MORE MONEY THAN WHAT DONALD TRUMP IS ASKING FOR TO PUT UP A CEMENT OR STEEL WALL. THAT IS THE VIEW OF PEOPLE WHO ANALYZE THIS IN GREAT DETAIL. THE MORE IMPORTANT ISSUE IS IF YOU LOOK AT WHERE MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE ARE IN THOSE BORDER STATES, WHETHER IT IS TEXAS OR ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, THERE IS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SUPPORT FOR THIS PARTICULAR PATH THAT DONALD TRUMP IS TAKING. THERE ' S A LOT OF RESERVATION ABOUT LINKING THE SHUTDOWN TO THE WALL AND A DESIRE TO SEE SOME SORT OF SEPARATION THERE. TOM: I AM THRILLED TO ANNOUNCE THAT WHEN I ' M IN LONDON, JOHN OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO WILL BE WITH US. PETER: I ' M HOSTING HIM AT LSC. TOM: THIS IS A VERY GOOD AND BEAUTIFUL THING. IT IS A REALIST ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS. WITHIN THAT IS ALWAYS A MULTILATERAL OR BILATERAL DISCUSSION. HOW LONG IS TRUMP-LATERAL POLITICS GOING TO BE MAINTAINED? IS THERE A NEW PERMANENCE TO THIS UNIQUE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OF AMERICA? PETER: I THINK ON THAT DIMENSION, THERE IS HALF DEPENDENCY HERE. -- PAT DEPENDENCY HEREH. I THINK TRUMP HAS CHANGED THE INTERNATIONAL DYNAMIC. I THINK IF A DEMOCRAT WERE TO TAKE THE PRESIDENCY IN 2020, THE NEEDLE WOULD MOVE IN THE OTHER DIRECTION. I THINK THAT THERE ARE CONSEQUENCES FOR THESE KINDS OF ACTIONS. TRUMP HAS CHANGED, IN A SENSE, THE POLITICAL SPACE FOR HIS SUCCESSOR. FRANCINE: WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE TIME THE EQUATION, WHAT CAN CHINA GIVE THE U.S.? AT WENT TO GIVE THEM SOME KIND OF GUARANTEES ON OPENING MARKETS, MORE TOWARDS CONSUMPTION OR WILL IT BE SMOKE AND MIRRORS? ALBERTO: THE INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS ON INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY AND OPEN MARKETS, I BELIEVE WOULD BE HARD FOR CHINA TO MAINTAIN BEYOND THE LEVEL OF A PROMISE. LET ' S REMEMBER A LOT OF THE ECONOMIC STIMULUS THAT HAS BROUGHT CHINA FROM AGRICULTURE TO INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION HAS BEEN BASED ON IMPORTING TECHNOLOGY. I THINK CHANGING THAT BUSINESS MODEL, THE GROWTH MODEL WOULD TAKE A LOT LONGER. WHAT CAN BE DONE IS AGREEMENT ON FINANCIAL STABILITY. NO DEPRECIATION ON THE YUAN, FOR EXAMPLE. ON THE FINANCIAL SIDE, SOMETHING MORE CAN BE DONE, AND ALSO FROM THE PLAINTIFF VIEW OF STIMULATING THE ECONOMY. LAST YEAR, A LOT OF THE SLOWDOWN WAS FROM CHINA ITSELF. WE NOW KNOW FROM THE NUMBERS, AND IN 2009, CHINA WAS THE ENGINE THAT ALLOW MORE GROWTH AND ALLOWED THE RECOVERY. THAT IS SOMETHING THEY CAN DO. FRANCINE: WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE FACT THAT WE ARE EXPECTING THE TRADE AGREEMENT TO END ON AN OPTIMISTIC NOTE, DOES IT MEAN THAT IN SIX MONTHS, WE CAN BE BACK TO SQUARE ONE AND HOW THESE TWO COUNTRIES FIGHTING? PETER: YEAH. I THINK ALL BETS WILL BE OFF. IT DEPENDS ON WHAT KIND OF AGREEMENT WE GET. IT IS POSSIBLE ONE CAN IMAGINE AN AGREEMENT WHERE THE U.S. SIDE DEMANDS THAT CHINA HIT CERTAIN GOAL POSTS OR MARKS OVER THE NEXT SIX MONTHS. IF THEY DON ' T, THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA GO BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS A FUSE ON THE NEGOTIATION. TOM: TOO HAPPY WITH US IS A GREAT

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Even If U.S. Reaches Trade Agreement With China, Can it Last?

Peter Trubowitz, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, discusses U.S.-China trade negotiations and the standoff over funding for President Donald Trump's border wall. Alberto Gallo, portfolio manager at Algebris Investments, also speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

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