Skip to content
Bloomberg the Company & Its ProductsThe Company & its ProductsBloomberg Terminal Demo RequestBloomberg Anywhere Remote LoginBloomberg Anywhere LoginBloomberg Customer SupportCustomer Support
  • Bloomberg

    Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world.

    For Customers

    • Bloomberg Anywhere Remote Login
    • Software Updates
    • Manage Products and Account Information

    Support

    Americas+1 212 318 2000

    EMEA+44 20 7330 7500

    Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000

  • Company

    • About
    • Careers
    • Diversity and Inclusion
    • Innovation
    • Philanthropy
    • Sustainability
    • Bloomberg London
    • Bloomberg Beta
    • Gender-Equality Index

    Communications

    • Press Announcements
    • Press Contacts

    Follow

    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • LinkedIn
    • Instagram
  • Products

    • Bloomberg Terminal
    • Execution and Order Management
    • Content and Data
    • Financial Data Management
    • Integration and Distribution
    • Bloomberg Tradebook

    Industry Products

    • Bloomberg Law
    • Bloomberg Tax
    • Bloomberg Government
    • BloombergNEF
  • Media

    • Bloomberg Markets
    • Bloomberg Technology
    • Bloomberg Pursuits
    • Bloomberg Politics
    • Bloomberg Opinion
    • Bloomberg Businessweek
    • Bloomberg Live Conferences
    • Bloomberg Apps
    • Bloomberg Radio
    • Bloomberg Television
    • News Bureaus

    Media Services

    • Bloomberg Media Distribution
    • Advertising
  • Company

    • About
    • Careers
    • Diversity and Inclusion
    • Innovation
    • Philanthropy
    • Sustainability
    • Bloomberg London
    • Bloomberg Beta
    • Gender-Equality Index

    Communications

    • Press Announcements
    • Press Contacts

    Follow

    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • LinkedIn
    • Instagram
  • Products

    • Bloomberg Terminal
    • Execution and
      Order Management
    • Content and Data
    • Financial Data
      Management
    • Integration and
      Distribution
    • Bloomberg
      Tradebook

    Industry Products

    • Bloomberg Law
    • Bloomberg Tax
    • Bloomberg Government
    • Bloomberg Environment
    • BloombergNEF
  • Media

    • Bloomberg Markets
    • Bloomberg
      Technology
    • Bloomberg Pursuits
    • Bloomberg Politics
    • Bloomberg Opinion
    • Bloomberg
      Businessweek
    • Bloomberg Live Conferences
    • Bloomberg Apps
    • Bloomberg Radio
    • Bloomberg Television
    • News Bureaus

    Media Services

    • Bloomberg Media Distribution
    • Advertising
  • Bloomberg

    Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world.

    For Customers

    • Bloomberg Anywhere Remote Login
    • Software Updates
    • Manage Contracts and Orders

    Support

    Americas+1 212 318 2000

    EMEA+44 20 7330 7500

    Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000

MenuSearch 
Bloomberg
Sign InSubscribe
  • Home

  • Markets

  • Technology

  • Politics

  • Pursuits

  • Opinion

  • Businessweek

  • Green


  • Video

  • Podcasts

  • Radio


  • Newsletters

  • Watchlist

  • Subscribe

  • Sign in


  • Submit a Tip

  • Help Center

  • License

Read
  • Bloomberg New Economy
  • Future Finance
  • Wealth
  • Next China
  • Crypto
  • Checkout
  • Hyperdrive
  • Well Spent
  • Prognosis
  • Equality
  • Good Business
  • Billionaires
  • Graphics
  • Sponsored Content
  • Screentime
Watch
  • The David Rubenstein Show
  • Art + Technology
  • Inspire GO
Special Reports
  • Where to Invest $10,000
  • 50 Companies to Watch in 2018
  • Where to Invest $1 Million
Follow
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
Read
  • Economics
  • Deals
  • Fixed Income
  • ETFs
  • FX
  • Factor Investing
  • Markets Magazine
Watch
  • Daybreak
  • Surveillance
  • Markets
  • What'd You Miss
  • Real Yield
  • Charting Futures
Follow
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
Data
  • Stocks
  • Currencies
  • Commodities
  • Rates & Bonds
  • Sectors
  • Economic Calendar
Listen
  • What Goes Up
  • Stephanomics
  • Odd Lots
  • Surveillance
  • P&L
  • Trillions
Read
  • Work Shifting
  • Code Wars
  • Startups
  • AI
  • Mobile
  • Big Data
  • Cloud Computing
  • U.S.
  • Global
Special Reports
  • The Elon Musk Tracker
  • Tesla Model 3 Tracker
Watch
  • Bloomberg Technology TV
  • Studio 1.0
Listen
  • Decrypted
Follow
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
Read
  • Election 2020
  • Trump Tracker
  • Global Trade Tracker
  • 2020 Optimist's Guide
Listen
  • Sound On
  • Bloomberg Law
Watch
  • Balance of Power
Subscribe
  • Balance of Power
Follow
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
Read
  • Travel
  • Autos
  • Homes
  • Living
  • Culture
  • Style
Special Reports
  • Property Listings
  • London Property Prices
  • New York Property Prices
  • How to Spend Your Bonus
Watch
  • Made
  • Traveler
  • Invitation Only
Follow
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
Read
  • Editorials
Follow
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
Listen
  • Masters in Business
Subscribe
  • Bloomberg Opinion Today
  • Money Stuff
  • Ritholtz's Reads
  • Early Returns
  • Sparklines
Special Reports
  • Sooner Than You Think
  • Business of Equality
  • The Year Ahead: 2020
  • The Bloomberg 50
  • Best B-Schools
Watch
  • Hello World
The Magazine
  • Subscribe
Follow
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
Read
  • Science & Energy
  • Climate Adaptation
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Culture & Design
Special Reports
  • Data Dash
Subscribe
  • Daily newsletter
Follow
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
Read
  • Design
  • Culture
  • Transportation
  • Economy
  • Environment
  • Housing
  • Justice
  • Government
Subscribe
  • Daily newsletter
Follow
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
Watch Live TV
  • US
  • Europe
  • Asia
  • Australia
  • Schedule+Shows
Shows
  • Surveillance
  • Daybreak
  • Markets
  • Balance of Power
  • What'd You Miss?
  • Bloomberg Technology
  • All Shows...
Series
  • Next Jobs
  • Hello World
  • Storylines
  • Game Changers
  • Profiles
  • Traveler
  • Journey Through South Korea
  • All Series
Follow
  • QuickTake
  • YouTube
  • Twitter
  • Facebook
Listen
  • What Goes Up
  • Stephanomics
  • Odd Lots
  • Decrypted
  • Masters in Business
  • Surveillance
  • P&L
  • Businessweek
  • The Pay Check
  • Prognosis
  • Travel Genius
  • Works for Me
  • Trillions
  • All Podcasts…
  • All Radio Shows…
Live on Bloomberg TV

CC-Transcript

  • 00:00MANUS: THANK YOU VERY MUCH. MILLIONS OF AMERICANS ARE ALREADY VOTING TO DECIDE THE SHAPE OF THE NEXT CONGRESS. AHEAD OF POLLING DATA TOMORROW. IT WILL HELP TO SHAPE THE COURSE OF THE SECOND HALF OF TRUMPS TERM. WITH THE DEMOCRATS HOPEFUL THEY CAN GRAB CONTROL OF THE HOUSE AND POSSIBLY ALSO THE SENATE FROM THE REPUBLICANS. LET'S BRING IN THE PEOPLE THAT REALLY UNDERSTAND THESE NUMBERS. PETER TO BLITZ IS A PROFESSOR AT THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS. DOMINIC ARMSTRONG IS MY GUEST HOST, COFOUNDER OF HER RACIEST FUND MANAGER. LET ME BRING IT TO YOU. WELCOME TO THE SHOW. YOU COME UP WITH A VERY INTERESTING LINE. AS WE GO TO THESE POLLS, JUST HOW CRITICAL IS IT FOR THE DEMOCRATS TO TAKE THE HOUSE? YOU SAY IF THEY DON'T, THEY ARE UNDER AND EXISTENTIAL THREAT. IS IT AS SERIOUS AS THAT? VITTORIO: YES -- GUEST: YES, I THINK THE DEMOCRATS HAVE PUT ALL THEIR EGGS IN THIS BASKET. MORE THAN ANY PRIOR MIDTERM. THEY'VE PUT IN MORE NEW CANDIDATES RUNNING, LOTS OF WOMEN, LOTS OF MILLENNIAL'S. THEY REALLY INVESTED THEIR VERY HEAVILY. THEY ARE LIKELY TO TAKE THE HOUSE. I THINK IT WOULD BE A HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT IF THEY DON'T. MOREOVER, DONALD TRUMP, AS SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES RYAN SAID YESTERDAY, TRIED TO HIJACK THE ELECTION BY TURNING IT INTO A VOTER REFERENDUM ON IMMIGRATION. AS OPPOSED TO RUNNING ON THE ECONOMY. BASICALLY PLAYING TO THE CULTURAL GRIEVANCES OF WHITE, BLUE-COLLAR VOTERS. THAT WORKED IN 2016, BUT MANY WROTE IT OFF AS A KIND OF FLUKE. IF IT WORKED THIS TIME, I THINK PEOPLE WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY. MANUS: DO YOU THINK HEALTH CARE WILL BECOME A MORE PRESSING ISSUE, RATHER THAN THE VISUALS OF A CARAVAN MOVING TOWARDS THE BORDERS OF THE UNITED STATES, WHICH IT SHOULD BE SAID, IS STILL QUITE A CONSIDERABLE DISTANCE AWAY? WHAT IS THIS BATTLE GOING TO COME DOWN TO? IS IT GOING TO BE THE DOLLARS IN MY POCKET, HEALTH CARE, OR IMMIGRATION? WHAT IS THE BATTLE ON THE GROUND ? GUEST: WELL, IT'S REALLY COME DOWN TO HEALTH CARE OR IMMIGRATION. WHAT ARE AMERICANS MOST AFRAID OF? LOSING COVERAGE ON PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS? FOUR PEOPLE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN BORDER? IF YOU LOOK AT POLLS, THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IS HEALTH CARE. 40% OF AMERICANS TO FIND THAT AS THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE, MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE ECONOMY. TOY 5% CONSIDER EMIGRATION -- 25% CONSIDER IMMIGRATION THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE. AND THOSE PEOPLE THAT ARE DEFINING HEALTH CARE AS A CRITICAL ISSUE ARE PRIMARILY DEMOCRATS, BUT ALSO INDEPENDENCE. AND INDEPENDENCE ARE THE VOTERS THAT NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IN THIS ELECTION BECAUSE IT'S SO POLARIZED BETWEEN DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS. BUT IF INDEPENDENTS SHOW UP AT THE POLLS, IT WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE. MANUS: DOMINIC, CAN I BRING IT TO YOU FOR A MARKET PERSPECTIVE? WE TALKED ABOUT THE EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO THE DEMOCRATS. WHAT WOULD IT MEAN FOR THE MARKETS IF THE DEMOCRATS DO TAKE THE HOUSE? DOMINIC: WELL, I THINK WHAT WE SEE THEN IS THE CLASSIC CHECKS AND BALANCES COMING BACK IN. WHICH IN THIS TERM, PROBABLY MEANS GRIDLOCK. IRONICALLY, MARKETS LIKE THE CONCEPT OF A PROPER CHECK ON SOME OF THE MORE ESOTERIC AND EXTREME ACTIONS THAT WE'VE SEEN FROM THE PRESIDENT. AND I THINK MARKETS WOULD WELCOME THAT SORT OF CHECK IN PLACE, EVEN IF IT DOES MEAN GRIDLOCK ON CERTAIN POLICIES. THAT WILL LOCKED IN THE SITUATION AND WE'LL HAVE TWO YEARS AT LEAST OF PREDICTABLE LACK OF THE UNPREDICTABLE. MANUS: DOMINIC, CAN I ASK YOU? WE HAVE THE DATA ON FRIDAY AND WE SAW THIS FAIRLY FANTASTIC SET OF NUMBERS IN TERMS OF JOBS, UNEMPLOYMENT, 40-50 YEAR LOW. AND WAGES. PETER, I WOULD LIKE YOU TO HAVE A LOOK AT THIS. WAGES AND LABOR SHORTAGE. THIS IS THE REALITY OF THE ECONOMY, GENTLEMAN. DOMINIC, FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S POINT OF VIEW, DO YOU THINK THERE'S ANY POSSIBILITY THAT THIS KIND OF DATA WOULD CAUSE THE FED TO HOLD ON TO THEIR TIGHT LANGUAGE ON THURSDAY? DOMINIC: I THINK SHORT-TERM, YES. IS A CHANCE WE WILL SEE THIS CONTINUE. BUT MARKETS ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK AHEAD TO THIS TIGHTENING CYCLE. IF WE LOOK SIX TO 12 MONTHS AHEAD, WE WILL FIND OURSELVES LOOKING FOR THE END OF THE CYCLE AND THEREFORE SEE THE STRENGTH IN U.S. DOLLAR, WHICH HAS BEEN TROUBLESOME FOR EMERGING MARKETS THIS YEAR. IT'S GOING TO CEASE TO BE A MAJOR THREAT TO OTHER MARKETS, PARTICULARLY EMERGING MARKETS. SHORT-TERM, YES, THE SENTIMENT WILL CONTINUE. BUT MARKETS ARE LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD AND I THINK A DEGREE OF OPTIMISM WILL ARISE FROM THAT. MANUS: CAN I BRING IT BACK TO YOU, PETER? WE'VE GOT THE LATEST CBS BATTLEGROUND TRACKER. IT SAYS 225 SEATS. 218 IS THE NEEDED NUMBER FOR A MAJORITY. BUT THERE IS A PLUS OR MINUS 13 IN THIS DATA. SO THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY THE DEMOCRATS DON'T TAKE IT. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR AMERICA IF THE REPUBLICANS HOLD BOTH HOUSES? WHAT WOULD IT MEET FOR TRUMPONOMICS, FOR FOREIGN POLICY? WHAT IS THE RISK IF THE GOP HOLDS BOTH HOUSES? PETER: I THINK IF THAT HAPPENS, DONALD TRUMP WILL VIEW IT AS A REAFFIRMATION OF WHAT HE DID IN THE FIRST ESSENTIALLY TWO YEARS, AND I WOULD THEN LOOK FOR REPUBLICANS TO DO THINGS LIKE REPEAL THE ESTATE TAX. I THINK WE COULD EXPECT DONALD TRUMP TO DOUBLE DOWN ON THE TRADE WAR. AND I THINK HIS HAND WOULD BE STRENGTHENED IN DEALING WITH CHINA. AND QUITE FRANKLY, I THINK WE COULD EXPECT SOME VERY LIKELY FIRINGS IN THE ATTORNEY GENERAL'S OFFICE. MANUS: CAN I ASK YOU WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE HAWKS, THE LIGHT HEISER OF THIS ADMINISTRATION? THE TRADE HAWKS THAT ARE ULTIMATELY GUIDING, SOME WOULD SAY, TRADE POLICY? IS THERE A RISK THAT WE CAN BOLDEN THE TRADE CONFRONTATION GLOBALLY? PETER: YES, IF THE SCENARIO HERE IS THE REPUBLICANS HOLD ON TO THE HOUSE, THEY BASICALLY HOLD. THE HOUSE AND THE SENATE. I THINK THAT WILL STRENGTHEN -- DONALD TRUMP, HE WILL REDOUBLE ON THE TRAY QUESTION. IT WILL, IN A SENSE, CONFIRM THEIR VIEW THAT AMERICANS ACTUALLY SUPPORT WHAT THEY ARE DOING ON TRADE. AND IT WILL PUT ADDITIONAL TREASURE -- PRESSURE ON SHE -- X I JINGPING. I DON'T THINK TRUMP NEEDS A LOT TO CLAIM VICTORY. HE PROVED THAT IN THE NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS. BUT IF YOU GET A GRIDLOCK OUTCOME, I THINK THE CHINESE HAND IS A BIT STRONGER. MANUS: ALL YOU NEED IS ONE TWEET
  • NOW PLAYING

    Democrats Face `Existential Threat' If Midterms Go Badly, LSE Says

  • 00:50

    Trump Weakens Environmental Regulations

  • 48:01

    Wall Street Week - Full Show (06/05/2020)

  • 45:26

    'Bloomberg Technology' Full Show (06/05/20)

  • 10:20

    Fundamental Constraints on the Economy Haven't Changed: Summers

  • 06:24

    Rotation Into Cyclical Stocks Confirmed by Leisure, Hospitality Hiring: Allianz's Mahajan

  • 06:32

    Canada's Jobs Market Still Feeling Pain, Manulife's Donald Says

  • 01:37:30

    'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (06/05/2020)

  • 08:22

    AFL-CIO's Trumka Says the Enemy Is a Broken Justice System

  • 06:35

    Tech Venture Capitalist Wants Everyone to Follow Their Conscience and Leave Facebook

  • 07:19

    Slack CEO: I Don't Know If We'll Ever Go Back to Normal

  • 43:49

    'What'd You Miss?' Full Show (06/05/2020)

  • 05:58

    Don't Lend Me Money Based on Employees I Don't Need, Bongo Java Owner Says

  • 14:59

    Ursula Burns Says Pandemic Is Chance to Reset Racial Conversation in Workplace

  • 10:56

    Trump's Posts Violated Facebook's Voter Suppression Policy, Says Civil Rights Activist

  • 24:00

    Leadership Live With David Rubenstein: YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki

Stream Schedule:

U.S. BTV+
  • U.S. BTV+
  • U.S. BTV
  • Europe BTV
  • Asia BTV
  • Australia BTV
  • U.S. Live Event
  • EMEA Live Event
  • Asia Live Event
  • Politics Live Event
No schedule data available.

Democrats Face `Existential Threat' If Midterms Go Badly, LSE Says

  • Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe

  • TV Shows

November 5th, 2018, 2:03 PM GMT+0000

Peter Trubowtiz, professor of international relations at The London School of Economics, discusses the outlook for the U.S. midterm elections and the risk to the Democrats if their campaign spending fails to deliver. He speaks alongside Dominic Armstrong, co-founder of Horatius Fund, on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe." (Source: Bloomberg)


  • More From Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe

    • 47:06

      'Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe' Full Show (06/05/2020)

    • 06:32

      Banks' Move Is Short-Term Clever, Long-Term Foolish: U.K. Lawmaker

    • 03:55

      Minneapolis Memorial for George Floyd

    • 47:04

      'Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe' Full Show (06/04/2020)

    All episodes and clips
  • Bloomberg Markets

    "Bloomberg Markets" is focused on bringing you the most important global business and breaking markets news and information as it happens.
    More episodes and clips
    • 45:26

      'Bloomberg Technology' Full Show (06/05/20)

    • 01:37:30

      'Bloomberg Markets: The Close' Full Show (06/05/2020)

    • 08:22

      AFL-CIO's Trumka Says the Enemy Is a Broken Justice System

    • 06:35

      Tech Venture Capitalist Wants Everyone to Follow Their Conscience and Leave Facebook

  • QuickTake

    Explaining the world with Bloomberg News
    More episodes and clips
    • 05:32

      Is Jet Biofuel Finally Taking Off?

    • 04:08

      Where Will the Shale Revolution Carry America?

    • 03:43

      How China Made - and Broke - Global Recycling

    • 04:42

      Why Cows, Steel and Cement Pollute So Much (and How to Fix It)

  • The David Rubenstein Show

    The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations" explores successful leadership through the personal and professional choices of the most influential people in business.
    More episodes and clips
    • 42:47

      'What'd You Miss?' Full Show (05/07/2020)

    • 24:05

      The David Rubenstein Show: Daimler CEO Ola Källenius

    • 23:55

      The David Rubenstein Show: Didi President Jean Liu

See all shows
Terms of Service Trademarks Privacy Policy ©2020 Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved
Careers Made in NYC Advertise Ad Choices Contact Us Help