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00:00AS ALWAYS, GREAT TO SPEAK TO YOU. LAST TIME I SPOKE TO YOU WAS THE DAY AFTER THE ELECTION. WE HAVE A TWEET I AM BRINGING UP , AND HE IS SAYING EUROPEANS, DO NOT INTERFERE, IT IS THE ITALIAN POPULIST FIRST, THE ITALIAN CITIZENS FIRST. HOW WILL THEY FIND THEIR SPENDING PLAN QUEST -- FIND THEIR SPENDING PLAN QUEST -- FUND THEIR SPENDING PLAN? NATHALIE: THERE ARE NO FINANCIAL PROMISES IN THE SO-CALLED GOVERNMENT CONTRACT. MANY THINGS WITHIN THE GOVERNMENT CONTRACT OUR OLD WISHES, EVEN OF THE RENZI GOVERNMENT. WHETHER WE ARE TALKING ABOUT REVISIONS OF ASYLUM, NOT INCLUDING PUBLIC INVESTMENTS AND TO BUDGET DEFICIT ACCOUNTING, THESE ARE NOT NEW STORIES. THE POINT REALLY IS THAT MANY OF THESE THINGS REQUIRE CONSENT AND CONSENSUS WITHIN THE EUROPEAN FRAMING, SO THE BOTTOM LINE REALLY IS, IS THIS PARTICULAR GOVERNMENT GOING TO HAVE TO STRENGTHEN CREDIBILITY TO BE ABLE TO RENEGOTIATE SOME OF THESE ROLES? -- RULES? MY PERSONAL OPINION IS NEGATIVE. FRANCINE: WE KNOW THE PRESIDENT WILL BE TAKING HIS TIME ON WHETHER HE WILL FORMALLY APPOINT THIS LAW PROFESSOR FROM FLORENCE, DOES HE WANTS TO CONTAIN POLITICAL RIVALRIES. IF HE DOES NOT APPOINT HIM, WON ' T IT JUST BE A SIGN THAT THE SYSTEM IS RIGGED AGAINST POPULIST LEADERS? NATHALIE: I THINK YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. MIND YOU, I DO NOT THINK THE MAIN PROBLEM ACTUALLY HAS TO DO WITH THE FIGURE OF THIS POSSIBLE PRIME MINISTER. I THINK THE MAIN CONCERNS THE PRESIDENT CURRENTLY HAS HAVE MORE TO DO WITH THE POTENTIAL MINISTER, PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE MINISTER OF ECONOMY. THE NAME THAT HAS COME UP HAS BEEN A MINISTER IN DECADES PAST , BUT HAS TAKEN SOME UNCONVENTIONAL POSITIONS WHEN IT COMES TO THE EURO. HE IS KNOWN AS BEING ANTI-EURO, AND REGARDLESS OF WHAT HE MAY OR MAY NOT DO, THE MAJOR RISK THE PRESIDENT HAS IN HIS MIND IS THE FACT OF HIM BEING THERE HAVING REPERCUSSIONS ON THE MARKET. I SEE THIS LESS IS AN ISSUE THAT HAS TO DO WITH CONTE HIMSELF AND MORE TO DO WITH THE FORMATION OF THE GOVERNMENT AND THE OVERALL PROGRAM. GUY: GOOD MORNING. SAL VINI SEEMS TO BE LISTENING TO THE MORE EURO SKEPTICAL WING AND THERE SEEMS TO BE THE SENSE THAT MAYBE THEY ARE LOOKING TO SPARK A CRISIS, THAT ACTUALLY RATHER THAN THIS ACTING AS A LIMITING FACTOR -- AND IT IS INTERESTING THAT FRAN BRINGS UP HIS COMMENTS ABOUT EXTERNAL INTERESTS -- BUT WHAT THEY WANT IS A FIGHT WITH EUROPE. D.C. THAT BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD? NATHALIE: THE ON THE RHETORIC, NOT REALLY -- BEYOND THE RHETORIC, NOT REALLY. IF YOU GO THROUGH AND RATE THE VARIOUS PAGES OF THE GOVERNMENT CONTRACT, YOU SEE THAT THIS IS NOT ABOUT BIG RATES WITH EUROPE. IT IS A LOT OF POMPOUS RHETORIC ABOUT RULES THAT HAVE TO BE REVISITED, BUT THERE IS NO INDICATION ITS LEEWARD CUT TIES WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION, OR THE PULLOUT OF THE EURO. IT IS LOTS OF BIG RHETORIC IN LOUD VOICES AND TRYING TO RALLY THE PEOPLE AROUND PARTICULARLY THE LEAGUE. THE OTHER ASPECT THAT HAS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THAT IT IS PARADOXICAL BUT TRUE THAT IN THIS PARTICULAR GOVERNMENT IF IT IS TO BE, IT IS THE LEAGUE THAT SEEMS TO HAVE THE UPPER HAND, ALTHOUGH IT IS IN PRINCIPLE THE MINORITY PARTNER. THERE IS EURO SKEPTICAL RHETORIC BUT NO INDICATION THERE WOULD BE A BREAK WHEN IT COMES TO EURO. THE MAIN ISSUE HERE IS WHETHER THE BREAK, IF THERE IS TO BE A RADICAL TURN, IT WILL BE LESS THE PRODUCT OF A PARTICULAR GOVERNMENT DECISION OR ACTION AND RATHER THE INDIRECT EFFECT OF THE WAY IN WHICH MARKETS ARE INDEED ALREADY REACTING. GUY: IS THIS THE REASON 2.0? NATHALIE: NO. ACTUALLY, I THINK THE WAY IN WHICH THE GOVERNMENT -- IF WHAT YOU MEAN BY 2.0 IS ULTIMATELY, ALL THE RHETORIC BUT ULTIMATELY BACKING DOWN, THEN YES, I THINK IT IS. IF YOU MEAN IT AS A NEW INCARNATION AS THE LAST -- OF THE LEFT, THIS IS ACTUALLY THE FIVE-STAR MOVEMENT TAKING A VERY CLEAR BEND TOWARDS THE RIGHT, OBVIOUSLY AS A CONSEQUENCE OF ENTERING A COALITION GOVERNMENT WITH THE LEAGUE. FRANCINE: NATHALIE TOCCI, THANK

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No Signs That Italy Will Cut Ties With EU, Tocci Says

Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, discusses the outlook for Italy's populist coalition government. She speaks from Rome on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

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