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00:00INVESTORS ARE ESTIMATING. WE WANT TO BRING YOU THE HEAD OF MARKETS HERE. THIS CHART ON THE BLOOMBERG IS PART OF WHAT WE ARE SEEING WITH THE RALLY. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RECESSION, BUT DOES RATE DOWN LEO HAVE A POINT WITH THE TECHNICAL LOOKING BETTER AND ARE WE MISSING A BIGGER PICTURE OF WHAT HAPPENS? > > I SHOULD MENTION THAT WE LOOK AT THE RECESSION PROBABILITIES. THOSE LOOK LOW AND THE FUNDAMENTALS HAVE LAGGED. THERE ARE TIMES THAT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW, BUT THE MARKET GOES INTO A BEAR MARKET AND IT IS KIND OF A SELF-FULFILLING PROCESS. JUST BECAUSE THE CHANCE OF THE RECESSION IS LOW DOES NOT MEAN THAT WE SHOULD BE COMPLACENT. THIS GOES UP. WHY? BECAUSE OF THE RECESSION BECOMING VERY TIGHT AND THE EXCESS MONEY GROWTH ORB REAL BOND YIELDS TRADING ABOVE GDP AND WE AREN ' T THERE YET , BUT ARE FORECASTING WHEN THAT WILL HAPPEN. IT IS BEST TO WATCH. AS IT IS NOW, THE FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ARE EASY ENOUGH TO NOT PUSH US INTO A RECESSION. > > YOU SAID THAT THE CORRECTION WAS COMING AND YOU ARE HOLDING ABOUT 30% IN CASH. > > THIS WAS A SHOCKING CORRECTION AND YOU LOOK AT THE VOLATILITY INDEX AND THE ABRUPT SELLOFF. HAVING CASH, THAT GIVES US THE OPPORTUNITY TO SELECTIVELY BUY BACK AND WE ARE DOING IT SLOWLY. WHEN YOU GET MOVES LIKE WE HAVE HAD, YOU DO GET A SHORT RECOVERY AND WE WILL GO TO THE FED MEETING ON MARCH 9 AND THERE WILL BE MORE VOLATILITY WEAKNESS. USUALLY, THIS IS A WAY TO BUILD A BASE BEFORE COMMITTING HEAVILY. THAT IS WHAT WE ' RE LOOKING AT. FIRST OF ALL, THERE IS THE LEVERAGE BOND PRICES GRAVITATING TOWARDS CYCLICAL AREAS LIKE ENERGY AND WE TAKE SOME OF THE PROFITS OUT AND WE ARE PUTTING SOME OF THEM BACK IN WITH THE EMERGING MARKET SHARES AND I WAS IMPRESSED WITH THE PICKUP IN THE VOLATILITY WE HAVE SEEN NOT AFFECTING PRICES AND THAT IS A GREAT SIGN. WE ARE USING THIS FOR EQUITY

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AMP Capital's Naeimi Doesn't See Start of a Bear Market

AMP Capital Investors Head of Dynamic Markets Nader Naeimi discusses the market turmoil. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)

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