Live on Bloomberg TV

00:00MIGHT DO WELL IN THE FIRST ROUND BUT WILL NOT WIN IN THE SECOND ROUND. THINGS WILL BE PRETTY MUCH LIKE THEY WERE AFTER THE ELECTIONS. HOW RELAX ARE YOU ABOUT THE ELECTIONS? >> I THINK IT IS AN UNPRECEDENTED -- UNPRECEDENTED SITUATION. I DON'T THE GET HAS EVER HAPPENED BEFORE IN FRANCE THAT WE HAVE HAD THAT KIND OF UNCERTAINTY. THAT IS AN ISSUE FOR THE MARKETS IN IT OF ITSELF. TO ME, THE BIG ISSUE IS THE ELECTIONS IN JUNE. THE VERY FUNDAMENTAL QUESTION OF HOWEVER GETS ELECTED IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WILL BE ABLE TO GOVERN, AND WHAT KIND OF COALITION THAT PERSON MIGHT BE ABLE TO PUT INTO PLACE? IT IS A BIT SIMILAR TO THE U.S. AND MANY OTHER COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD WHERE WE SEE DIMINISHING POLITICAL MAJORITIES, THEREFORE DIMINISHING LOGISTICALLY CAPACITIES. I THINK THAT WILL BE THE OUTCOME. ANNA: SOME COUNTRIES SEEM TO MANAGE FOR A NICELY WITH A NUMBER OF RECOMMENDED PARTIES, OR THEIR OF MANAGED TO GO PRETTY NICELY. MARIE: IT IS HARD TO KNOW HOW THESE PEOPLE WILL BE ABLE TO -- WHOEVER WINS, BASICALLY, WHAT THE COALITION WILL LOOK LIKE. PERHAPS FRANCOIS FILLON ON IS THE LIST UNCERTAIN PERSON IN THAT -- LESS UNCERTAIN PERSON. WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE JEAN-LUC MELENCHON POSITION WILL LOOK LIKE. THEY ONLY HAVE TWO DEPUTIES IN THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IN FRANCE. THEY HAVE 577 SEATS, THAT LOOKS LIKE AN ARDUOUS TASK FOR THEN TRY TO GET THEM INTO PLACE. MATT: IT MAKES SENSE LONGER-TERM. OF COURSE, IF WE HAD A SURPRISE ON SUNDAY, AND WE GOT A MARINE LE PEN, JEAN-LUC MELENCHON INTO THE SECOND ROUND, WHEN IT THAT SPOOKED MARKETS AND THROW EVERYTHING OFF? I'M -- MARIE: I'M SURE THAT WOULD HAVE A GREAT IMPACT ON MARKET VOLATILITY. NEVERTHELESS, WHOEVER BECOMES PRESIDENT HAS TO BE ABLE TO FORM A GOVERNMENT. THAT IS WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE POWER OF THE FRENCH SYSTEM IN THE FUTURE. IF WE HAVE DIFFICULTIES WITH GOVERNMENTS UNDER ANY PRESIDENCY, THAT IS WHEN THE ELEMENTS OF THIS WHOLE STORY IS UP THERE IS A REASONABLY HIGH PROBABILITY THAT IT WILL BE A WEEK GOVERNMENT, THEREFORE FEWER STRUCTURAL REFORMS IN THE LONGER RUN THAN LESS GDP GROWTH. THAT IS HOW IT IS PANNING OUT. MATT: WE TALKED ABOUT THIS AS UNPRECEDENTED AT THE TOP OF THE SHOW. DO THE FRENCH SEE IT THAT WAY, ESPECIALLY CONSUMERS? IS THE UNCERTAINTY STOPPING THEM FROM GOING OUT AND SPENDING? MARIE: I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY REAL SUPPORT OF THAT. ON THE CONTRARY, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY IN GENERAL, INCLUDING FRANCE, IN THIS CASE IS HOLDING UP VERY WELL. PRIVATE CONSUMPTION HAS BEEN DRIVING THE EURO AND FRENCH GDP GROWTH THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. THAT IS STILL HOLDING UP. SURPRISINGLY WELL, PERHAPS ONE COULD ARGUE. ANNA: HOW DOES THE ECB NAVIGATE THIS POLITICAL PARTY? WHETHER THE RISKS ARE STILL TILTED TO THE DOWNSIDE. MARIE: I THINK WE DEFINITELY HAVE A HUGE STORY COMING TO THE MARKETS GOING FORWARD. MEANING THAT, WE KNOW THAT CENTRAL BANKS ARE -- NOT EVERYBODY AT THE SAME RHYTHM, BUT EVERYBODY IS PREPARING FOR REMOVING SOME OF THE LIQUIDITY THAT THEY HAVE BEEN SO GENEROUS WITH SINCE THE 2008 CRISIS. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL BECOME WITHDRAWAL FROM THE WORLD

No schedule data available.

Indosuez Sees Diminished Legislative Power in France

Marie Owens Thomsen, chief economist at Indosuez Wealth Management, discusses the French election and how the result could impact markets. She speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe." (Headline changed to better reflect interview.) (Source: Bloomberg)

More From Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe
All episodes and clips

Bloomberg Markets
"Bloomberg Markets" is focused on bringing you the most important global business and breaking markets news and information as it happens.
More episodes and clips