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00:00Policy is beginning to take shape under the Trump administration . But there has been no shortage of backlash. Earlier I spoke with Ian Bremmer president of Eurasia Group. He says 2017 is the most significant year for political risk since World War Two . It's a geopolitical recession. It's the beginning of a long cycle and I guess what I would say is we are now at the end of the Pax Americana. For the last decades if you're thinking about the global marketplace globalization and Americanization have been the same thing. Globalization is continuing Americanization is not we're making it very clear that we no longer want to be the cheerleader of global values or the architect of global trade or of course the world's Sheriff. Now there are lots of other things that are making that problematic like the rise of China and the willingness of Russia to play a security role that undermines the Americans the fragmentation of Europe the explosions around the Middle East. But geopolitically it was the United States America first policy that kind of was the straw that broke the camel's back and so that's that's how we can say that Pax Americana is over and the geopolitical risk that comes from that when there's no other leader out there clearly is very elevated. Well so who then is the leader of the free world. Is it still the US president. No there isn't a leader of the free world right. I mean it's you know Merkel I suppose is the strongest of existing leaders that actively are promoting indispensible values like rule of law and the support for multilateral institutions and legitimacy of governance democratic governance. But you know Merkel is facing her own challenging electoral period and Europe itself is kind of unwinding right. I mean we don't know what what you're planning to look like at all in five years time. Now China is clearly not the leader of the free world. China is much more willing to play a leadership role in economics and specifically in terms of creating new architecture some trade agreements though they're weaker than the Trans-Pacific Partnership certainly would have been some investments in infrastructure around the world. But it's it's nowhere near what the Marshall Plan was. And let's be very clear if you want to talk about diplomacy or security or soft power or technology or energy China's not a leader globally in any of those areas. So I mean it clearly is a vacuum of leadership that's going to mean that a lot of things that need to be done globally like facilitating trade or responding to climate or even dealing with you know failed states and terrorism are gonna be done in a vastly more inefficient and piecemeal way. And on that note you tweeted recently as Trump follows through on his campaign promises us China conflict will be the biggest global danger earlier rather than later. Talk to me about that. Look Newt Gingrich was just here in Toronto yesterday and he was making it very clear look you idiots Canadians like why weren't you listening to them . This is all the stuff he said he was going to do. He's going to do now let's assume that Newt is right and I think he is. You know the big thing that Trump said he was going to do that he hasn't done anything yet. It's only been a week and a half is he's gonna hit the Chinese hard right there eating our lunch . They're taking advantage of us. They're stealing all of our stuff and they're promoting North Korea they're giving them all the cash they're a security threat to the US. Trump has made very clear as has advisers that that will stop under the Trump administration. Well I mean that means that we're going to escalate. We're going to hit him hard. It's going to be tariff measures and it's going to be U.S. military engagement in the region. And the fact is this is the most important bilateral relationship in the world. If we hit the Chinese they have the capacity to hit back and they also have the willingness especially because their own leadership is engaged in this transition process the Five Year Party Congress this fall. So if there ever is a period where they're not going to show weakness or modulation it's going to be this year. Well I mean on the topic of things that Trump promised on the campaign trail that the Muslim would ban as he called it back then it certainly comes up and I'm wondering you know looking at the implementation of that ban over the weekend there are a lot of questions about whether it was by design you know chaotic as it was. What are your thoughts on that. Is that too sinister of you. Yeah I don't believe that this was meant to be a dumpster fire. I think that they wrote it and they wrote it quickly and they have no experience governing and they don't have a lot of their cabinet in place yet. And they also didn't want it to get out. So it was you know very close hold. But I mean more importantly than the way they mishandled it is the fact that the policy itself is massively counterproductive at what it alleges to do which is make Americans more safe. You know we know that the people from these countries do not pose a significant threat to American national security. And the reason they don't isn't only because the Americans don't take a lot of refugees but it's also because when people come they get well integrated into US and most Muslims in America feel sufficiently trustworthy about American citizens that they will actually cooperate with authorities if they see that their buddy down the hall is you know considering blowing something up which is not true of Muslim communities in France or the Netherlands or Germany where they're really not a part of society. Now if there's one thing that this immigration ban is going to do it's going to destroy the feeling of identity and belonging this and trust of Muslims in the United States . It is not a Muslim ban. It is a ban against the citizens of seven countries with exceptions for minorities that don't happen to be Muslim. But what we know is that when Trump was running he called for a Muslim ban several times on the stop. And then when it was realized that was unconstitutional he said OK OK let's do it in a legal way. But the intention is to go after people that are Muslim and those Muslims that are in America that we need to feel like they are citizens and not only citizens that they identify with American institutions with American legal enforcement. We need them to continue to feel that way. They do not feel that way under President Trump and that will make Americans less safe. That will undermine American security. What are you hearing from the business community you talked to a lot of CEOs I spoke with BlackBerry CEO John Chen yesterday who called this an alarming move. He said it was extreme. What's the feedback you're getting. Well the American companies of course want Trump to succeed. The U.S. markets have been doing very well. They like what he's doing on tax. They like the composition of his economic advisers in the cabinet. They like his pro energy stance. So I mean certainly in the first couple of weeks. On balance you have if not active cheerleading because few of them were big supporters of his in the early days you certainly had a lot of . OK. Come on let's make this work. But on the ballot on the band you know look my wish is something American multinational corporations are some of the world's perhaps the world's biggest beneficiaries of U.S. led globalization. And if you now have a president and saying actually I'm going to make it harder for you to get your talent and I'm going to make a lot of people feel unwelcome again it's not just about these seven countries . OK. Google has 190 employees. They can't get. It's not going to change their stock price. But if you have meaningful numbers of people from all over the world who represent the most meaningful talent base. Right. These are the engineers. These are the guys doing A.I. and software these that a lot of them educated in the US but they live they come from those other countries. We want to keep them. We want them to be talent . Well if they don't feel welcome in the US you know these are people that are exceptionally mobile. They're abundantly employable and these American companies aren't going to get them to work for them. They're gonna have to hire them someplace else. Clearly this is a big problem. And you're hearing now from financial institutions who hire a lot of techs you're hearing from the I.T. companies directly and even a few of the manufacturers that they have a problem. So this may be quite possibly a great opportunity for Canadian companies. Is this also an opportunity that we've seen out of the Trump administration so far an opportunity for Justin Trudeau in Canada on the geopolitical landscape. I think he sees himself as something of a foil to Trump. Know he certainly does. And yet you know Trudeau needs to be very careful because you know if you're Canada there is one game in town for you internationally it's the United States that matters for Energy and Natural Resources it matters for trade it matters for tourism. If that relationship gets suddenly very pear shaped the Canadians are going to be on the worse end of that. Not the Americans. So I think that even though it's more obvious to the Mexicans because you know you've had this anti-immigration sentiment calling them rapists and criminals and the wall. But you know Trudeau has to be careful that I mean he is recognized right now as kind of this you know poster boy for liberalism and for good values. But you know getting high and mighty on values with the United States will not play well in Washington with this administration. And this is either you kind of want to be under the radar. Right. If I were Trudeau I would absolutely be saying the right things domestically but I would be careful with how you play the bilateral relations. But the tweet that he sent out over the weekend seemed like it wasn't a direct rebuke of the ban. But it was certainly a you know take a closer look at Canada everyone. Yes. And there's no question that there are countries that have been doing that in response to the Brits on Brexit. We've seen it from the Germans and the French but you know I would say that if you are Trudeau you should recognize that leadership by tweet is not necessarily the right model for statesmanship going forward especially when the guy that's really mastered the form is kind of a threat to you .

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Geopolitical Risk in the Trump Era

Policy is beginning to take shape under the new Trump administration but there's been no shortage of backlash. Bloomberg TV Canada talks to Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group who says 2017 is the most significant year for political risk since World War II. (Source: Bloomberg)