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00:00TALK ABOUT THIS ANTI-GLOBALIZATION SENTIMENT, EURASIA GROUP PRESIDENT IAN BREMMER. WE HAVE THE LACK OF THE ADMINISTRATION THAT EVERYBODY WANTS TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THEY ARE THINKING OR WHAT THEIR NEXT STEP IS. WE HAD THE CHINESE PRESIDENT SHOWING UP AND WE HAVE THERESA MAY ARRIVING LATER. WHAT ARE YOU MOST WORRIED ABOUT? IAN: PRESIDENT XI WAS GOING TO COME HERE SOONER OR LATER, IF WE ELECTED HILLARY CLINTON IT WOULD HAVE BEEN LATER BECAUSE THE EVOLUTION OF THE WILL ORDER WOULD HAVE TAKEN LONGER BEFORE THE CHINESE FELT THEY WERE REALLY READY TO STEP IT UP. THEY HAVE TO DO AN EARLIER, THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THEM , DEFINITELY WITH DONALD TRUMP SAYING WE DO NOT CARE ABOUT THE STRONG EUROPE, MORE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES SHOULD LEAVE, WE CAN WIN A TRADE WAR WITH DONALD TRUMP SAINT WE DO NOT WANT MULTILATERAL DEALS, WE WILL NOT BE SUPPORTED THE HUMAN, THAT IS AN OPPORTUNITY OR THE CHINESE TO STEP UP AND XI JINPING BROUGHT IT, THE MOST IMPORTANT SPEECH OF DAVOS IS THIS SPEECH. THE POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT CONFLICT BETWEEN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES IS A LIKELIHOOD. THAT IS NOT JUST TRUE ON THE ECONOMIC SIDE BUT ALSO TO OVER THINGS LIKE TAIWAN, NORTH KOREA, SOUTH CHINA SEA AND THE CHINESE DO NOT LIKE THAT. FRANCINE: WHAT DOES THAT LOOK LIKE, SOME KIND OF ANTAGONISTIC MOVE BY THE PRESIDENT TRUMP AND RETALIATION IN FORCED BY THE CHINESE? IAN: THE RETALIATION WILL BE ON BOTH SIDES, BOTH ECONOMIC RETALIATION AND SECURITY RETALIATION. IF THE AMERICANS ARE PUSHING THE CHINESE AND PUTTING THE SANCTIONS BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT SQUEEZING THE NORTH KOREANS, THE CHINESE WILL RESPOND IN KIND, SAYING WE WILL NOT BE DOING GOVERNMENT PROCUREMENT FROM AMERICAN COMPANIES, WE WILL IT THESE GUYS WITH FINES IN THE UNITED STATES. SOME JOURNALISTS MAY BE SUMMARILY PACKED OFF AND NOT WORKING IN CHINA ANYMORE BUT THE TENSION -- A RELATIONSHIP -- OBAMA FOREIGN-POLICY LARGELY FAILED OF U.S.-CHINA RELATIONSHIP HAS BEEN REASONABLY WELL-MANAGED BUT BACK TO FOLLOW FOR QUICKLY. TOM: THE NEWS IS THAT ROBERT WILL JOIN YOU AT EURASIA, GOOD NEWS, HIS MOST COMING ANARCHY TOUCHES UPON THE BACKSTORY NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT, IS THERE A COMING ANARCHY IN OUR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS WHEN WE LOOK AT ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY THIS YEAR? IAN: ABSOLUTELY THERE IS , AS MUCH AS THERE IS REASON TO BE EXCITED, THE IMF FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NINE YEARS WAS -- DIDN'T UPGRADE OF DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, THE ECONOMICS -- THE DEVELOPED WORLD -- PEOPLE EXCITED ABOUT DONALD TRUMP AND A UNIFIED CONGRESS DOING GOOD THINGS SHORT-TERM AND MAYBE EVEN MEDIUM-TERM FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY BUT GLOBALLY? THE THING I WORRY ABOUT MOST ABOUT THE COMING ANARCHY IS THAT DONALD TRUMP REALLY BELIEVES THAT AMERICA'S NEGOTIATING POSITION GLOBALLY IS BETTER THAN IT USED TO BE WHICH IS NOT TRUE. TOM: SECRETARY OF STATE TILLERSON WILL BE THE ADULT IN THE ROOM? DO YOU HAVE CONFIDENCE HIS TEAM OF RIVALS AND SUBSETS OF GROUPS, THAT THOSE PEOPLE CAN MEASURE AND CHANGE AND ADAPT THE TRUCK MESSAGE -- TRUMP MESSAGE? IAN: I DO NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE WAY HE INTERVIEWED THESE PEOPLE WERE HE HAD LOTS OF QUESTIONS ON FOREIGN POLICY COMPILED BY HIS TEAM AND HE SITS DOWN WITH THEM AND HITS OFF THE QUESTION AND THEY START TO ANSWER AND HE CUTS THEM OFF BECAUSE HE WILL NOT LISTEN TO POLICY. WILL HE DELEGATE AND HOW MUCH WILL HE CONTINUE TO BE -- FRANCINE: WEED -- TOM: WE DO NOT KNOW. IAN: EVERYTHING WE HAVE SEEN FROM HE WILL MAINTAIN COMPLEX OF INTEREST, HE IS A GUY WHO IS NOT LAZY, HE WILL ENJOY THE PRESIDENCY AND THE JOY THE MANIFESTATIONS OF POWER IT BRINGS. ON A SERIES OF ISSUES, DONALD TRUMP WILL BE HANDS-ON. FRANCINE: WHERE WILL WE BE IN 12 MONTHS? WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR FOREIGN RELATIONS? IAN: IF THE UNITED STATES WANTS TO DO AND EMMA FROM HIS RESPONSIBILITIES GLOBALLY, THAT IS WHAT AMERICA FIRST REALLY MEANS, WE ARE NOT LIKE BRITAIN WHERE WE HAVE TO TAKE WHAT OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE US, WE ARE THE RULES SUPERPOWER, JAPAN AND THE U.K., ISRAEL, MEXICO, CANADA, IF WE TELL THEM TO JUMP, THEY JUMP. DONALD TRUMP HAS THE ABILITY TO SCORE POINTS WITH COUNTRIES THAT NEED AMERICA BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF COUNTRIES THAT DO NOT AND ABLE HEDGE AND MOVE TOWARDS CHINA AND MOVE TOWARDS OTHER COUNTRIES, THE MIDDLE EAST FALLING APART, WE WILL BE IN THE

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Bremmer: Direct Conflict for U.S-China 'Now a Likelihood'

Ian Bremmer, president at Eurasia Group, discusses the importance of the appearance at Davos by Chinese President Xi Jinping, the prospect of tensions between the United States and China, and how U.S. President-elect Donald Trump can affect global politics. He speaks from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

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