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00:00CHIEF ECONOMIST AT .72 ASSET MANAGEMENT. I IMAGINE THERE COULD BE A DECEMBER INCREASE NOW BECAUSE THE FED WOULD THROW THE MARKET IN TURMOIL IF THEY DECIDED NOT TO MOVE IN DECEMBER. GUEST: THERE IS NEVER ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY A FEW WEEKS AHEAD OF TIME, BUT WE CAN BE QUITE CERTAIN THE FED WILL BE RAISING RATES. SHE GAVE A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT THE DATA SINCE THE MEETING WERE IN LINE WITH FED TIGHTENING. VONNIE: HOW DO THEY START PLOTTING FOR NEXT YEAR? THE DATA IS PROBABLY GOING TO SHIFT DRASTICALLY IN THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THE ADMINISTRATION. GUEST: ONE MESSAGE FROM CHAIR YELLEN IS THAT SHE IS NOT CONVINCED GROWTH IS SUDDENLY GOING TO SURGE AT THE START OF THE YEAR. SHE IS GOING TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE ECONOMY RESPONDS AND WHAT POLICIES ARE PUT IN PLACE. THE FED FEELS THEY HAVE TIME TO REACT TO DATA AS THEY COME AND RATHER THAN TRYING TO FRONT RUN THE DATA. DAVID: WHAT ARE YOU DOING AMIDST THE WORLD OF SPECULATION ABOUT WHAT A PACKAGE MIGHT LOOK LIKE AND TAX CUTS MIGHT BE. WHAT ARE YOU PRICING OUT? GUEST: MY VIEW IS ECONOMIC GROWTH IS PICKING UP NEXT YEAR ANYWAY. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE THAT IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF THIS YEAR. WE HAD A VERY SOFT PATCH FOR SEVERAL QUARTERS A ROW PRIOR TO THAT. WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS EXPORTS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP AND BUSINESS EXPENSES WILL PICK UP AND WE ARE SEEING BETTER MOMENTUM IN THE ECONOMY ALREADY. IF WE DO GET SOME FISCAL STIMULUS IN THE ADDITION, THAT SHOULD ONLY PILE ON AND LEAD TO A BETTER GROWTH OUTCOME. VONNIE: DOES IT DEPEND ON HOW THE FISCAL STIMULUS IS PREPARED? QUITE A FEW DIFFERENT OPINIONS ON HOW MUCH OF A PRIVATE OWNERSHIP, HOW MUCH PUBLIC FUNDS WILL BE USED. WILL THAT CHANGE THE OUTLOOK DRAMATICALLY? GUEST: WE WILL HAVE TO SEE. WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH DETAILS TO MAKE A FIRM DETERMINATION. THERE'S ALSO QUESTIONS OF WHEN THIS MIGHT TAKE EFFECT. WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH INFORMATION AT THIS POINT TO REALLY MAKE A DECISION. VONNIE: THERE ARE WAYS TO LOOK AT IT. A 1% DECREASE IN A TAX RATE WOULD BE EQUIVALENT TO A 32 BASIS POINT HIKE IN SOME WAYS AND EVERY $250 BILLION IN INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING WOULD ADD TO THE EQUIVALENT OF A FED INCREASE. HAVE YOU BEEN DOING ANY TYPE OF THAT WORK? GUEST: WE ARE LOOKING AT CALCULATIONS LIKE THAT. AS CHAIR YELLEN SAID, WE ARE GETTING CLOSE TO FULL EMPLOYMENT, SO IF THERE IS , THEY WOULD HAVE TO RESPOND TO THAT WITH GREATER INCREASES. WE MAY NOT GET A BURST LIKE IT MIGHT IMPLY. DAVID: THE TESTIMONY AND ECONOMIC DATA WE GOT THIS MORNING, LOOKING AT CPI AND HOUSING START, HOW DOES THE HOUSING MARKET LOOK TO YOU AND HOW IMPORTANT IS THE HOUSING STARTS MEASURE WE GOT TODAY? GUEST: THE HOUSING MARKET IS IN A GRADUAL UP WORD MOVE. AT MIGHT UNDERCUT THINGS FOR A LITTLE BIT AS PEOPLE ADJUST TO THOSE HIGHER RATES, BUT THE HOUSING MARKET LOOKS REALLY SOLID FUNDAMENTALLY, BUT THE STARTS NUMBER CERTAINLY

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U.S. Eco Data, Trump, and a Dec. Fed Rate Hike

Dean Maki, chief economist at Point72 Asset Management, discusses the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December and how the combination of fiscal stimulus and better economic growth can impact the Fed's rate path. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)

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