00:00We're seeing growth in the US but it's not quality growth Yeah I guess you know the assumption out there is gee if we could just return to what growth should be then there'd be less social strife and everyone would be in a better place. And it gets to this well what should growth be. And unfortunately it gets to human lives which aren't that long because basically we'd been in one growth cycle since 1980. Reagan Greenspan a debt leverage cycle we all know that. And then in 2009 it didn't reset. What happened is as we know central banks basically just put a little bit of salve on it and it pushed fixed income yields down and risk assets up. If you go back longer than that though you're still stuck in the same dynamic because from kind of 1860 to 1970 we were in an aberrational growth period because of electricity the engine all the stuff that's a Robert Gordon has highlighted pretty well. So it begs the question what is normal growth. I unfortunately think normal growth is not in the neighborhood of kind of three to four percent it's lower than that. And all this technology innovation we're seeing right now. Uber Amazon robotics unfortunately this first wave of it is actually deflationary because it's at the expense of jobs and eventually second and third wave that may be more inflationary. But that's probably 10 plus years away. So then everyone says well what can be done will you shift to the fiscal side of the House infrastructure spending and all that. And it's assumed Hillary will launch a big infrastructure plan. The problem is that if you have Congress on the other side of the House they're going to fight that to the kind of degree just like they did with Obama when he wanted an infrastructure bank. And on top of that as we know entitlement spending is two thirds of the budget in the US already. So there's just not so much room for President Clinton if she is the president it's some kind of a because Donald Trump was also saying that he wants to increase fiscal spending I would assume that both parties would be behind that well I mean if you have full employment and you have rising bond yields and you have a deficit scenario really me playing people who are in Congress who are saying well you can't run the deficit up forever. No there's not an unlimited kind of deficit spending scenario here. I understand that. What. Without Alexander saying the Robert Gordon thesis but the fact remains 2 percent growth is weak by historical standards. Now whether that's the new normal new state of affairs or whether we can use fiscal policy and structural changes labor laws regulation etc. to get back to something like three three and a half that's a debate for the future. But as of today in terms of voters turning out not only do we have this weak growth financing but there's enormous income inequality what little growth we have is skewed very heavily to the to the top 1 percent or so. So people are very angry very upset about this. So that's where they're going to vote .

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As America Votes, Will Economics Trump the Rhetoric?

America will decide its next president today. It's an important choice to make with economics in mind. The nation's next batch of leaders could alter how much Americans pay in taxes and who pays them. Improving the wage outlook has been a constant theme on the campaign trail, and as it turns out, high-wage earners are already getting a raise. Fewer workers have seen salary gains over the past several months, but pay growth increased for workers in high-wage industries. Gam Holding CEO Alexander Friedman and West Shore Group Chief Global Strategist James G Rickards discuss with Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."