00:00WTO Nicholas in your notes you say it's the far end of unfavourable terms increased tariffs red tape regulatory barriers limited opening for services but countries then try and agree on special bilateral terms to improve on WTO terms how difficult is that. Well there are a lot of bilateral trade agreements out there. And the question I think for the UK is the fifth biggest economy in the world is not whether we can get these agreements with third countries. The question is what do they bring us and how good are those terms. How much do they push us from the WTO terms and how how well are they going to replace what we might lose. How do you make up the shortfall with third countries if you don't maintain the same terms with the EU. What's the answer. I think that's exactly the question . I think it will be very hard if we lose access to the single market to replace that with new opportunities with third countries particularly in the area of services. Because what you see in services is that there is much less market integration much less liberalisation than we have in our relationship with the European Union today. Job what do we learn from the Setser deal. The EU cannot do a trade deal which sort of crept over the line to seven years in the making. It shows you the difficulties of striking a deal with Europe. If all parliaments have to essentially and countries and regions have to have to vote it have votes on it and could veto it. Yes indeed. I mean it was the Canadians in the past that I mean I think Quebec which scuppered the deal in the past. I think there's a lot of collateral issues here political issues that will make it much more difficult for the United Kingdom to actually get a deal going in five to seven years. Remember this is with Canada. There's good relationships and they want to do the deal. Now we've got a country that wants to leave the European Union. We've been told that there might be a degree of pain and there's different countries that can come in. And one thing is forgotten in the British debate never mind all these countries but in the exit from the European Union the European Parliament will have a vote and it will be a simple majority vote. And my understanding at the moment is this would not be a given that they would vote for the deal. CBC You strike a deal then right at the last hurdle. Nicolas it gets voted down. Is that the worry. I think that is a big worry and that's why I think it's important that the government also focus on transitional arrangements as part of its strategy because we want to make sure that when we get to the end of the two years we probably will not have finished the negotiations. We may be out of the European Union at that point and even if we reach a deal the deal may not be implemented because of the types of problems we've just seen with Seta. So we want to start I think by trying to arrange transitional arrangements that will give business the type of certainty they need to plan in the long term until final arrangements are in place at the moment job . Businesses have no certainty at all and you're saying yesterday's GDP number it doesn't even begin to take into account the process of Brexit. Not really because what has happened. We've had a decline in the pound. We have all this uncertainty before all this discussion but when we get to the end of March and if Article 50 is indeed implemented then which I think is a rather bad time to implement Article 50 with Dutch elections French elections and German elections and everyone being sort of looking at their own domestic politics we've got a wasted six to nine months where they're electioneering and there might be changes of government were coming coming through that period and I think that you know we are in a situation where we're looking at some elements of good news but further down the line there will be more uncertainty. There will be more clearer lines that we are actually leaving the European Union and our growth rates may not look as good as they do now. JOHN NICHOLAS Nissan's investing in the UK. We heard that yesterday although beneath this announcement the questions arise. Was there some sort of special deal is Theresa May giving preferential treatment to various businesses. Is that a real concern going forward. Well I think the good news is that Nissan has made this inversion. Great news for the northeast but for Brexit it does raise some interesting questions about what is going on in the background. From what I've read the government has given some kind of commitment to Nissan not to change or changes in the terms of trade will not prejudice the company. Now that could be it could spell trouble down the line obviously the UK government can't do that for everyone. So we'd be having to pick winners and losers almost. But the UK government may also run into problems under WTO rules about subsidies and of course if the government were to provide support other countries could put extra import duties to counter these subsidies so it could end up being a race to the bottom. John final question. It's been a week where we've had Nissan. It's been a week where Heathrow has finally been rubber stamp. Whether or not it ever happens is an entirely new question. The goods it use is forthcoming but you say the real process hasn't begun . Meanwhile the Bank of England is left with a lot of the heavy lifting. How much could and should Philip Hammond do when he reveals his Autumn Budget in just three or four weeks time . What he needs. I mean everyone's talking about fiscal policy because if you look at the situation we were in the moment we might be on the Titanic with no lifeboats because QE has run its course. We've gone down to zero interest rates or near to. And global debt is 30 to 40 percent higher than it was before the last financial crisis. We need fiscal policy because the central banks ammunition ammo is running now. So we need him to come up with a very solid plan. But when we do that we have to realize that we're adding more debt to our national debt at some stage but we might get some benefits from that. But this will all take time because when you implement those fiscal policy measures it takes time. There's a time lag. So you know we look for quick wins because we might be in a tricky situation for you know in the short term. So we need this fiscal policy to have some impact pretty quickly .

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Nissan Deal Raises Questions on Trade, Says Lockhart

The U.K. economy performed better than anyone expected since the vote to leave the European Union and, as a bonus, Nissan affirmed its commitment to the U.K. with a decision to build two new car models at its plant in Sunderland. Both give those who championed a split fresh reason to cheer and helped to counter the pre-referendum warnings from the Treasury and most economists that choosing Brexit would cast the economy into recession and repel foreign investment. The question now for the economy, and those charged with leading it through the messy divorce from the EU, is whether that resilience endures or soon crumbles. Sidley Austin Partner Nicolas Lockhart and London School of Economics Fellow John Ryan discuss implications of Brexit on trade with Mark Barton on "Brexit: What's Next?"