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00:00The question we're asking everyone What would Brexit mean for Russia. What if Britain leaves the European Union. What would that mean for Russia . I think it's very bad news for our economy because the European Union has is the biggest trade partner for action to the direction because over 50 percent before partnership around the world is the European Union. And I think I hope that we can get the good news maybe next week but it will be very bad influence in our economy and in our on our currency of course on our own . And and on our investors in the Russian papers and I think I'm not sure that the before long term but the first reaction can be very bad . Can you quantify. Can you explain in numbers how bad it could be . Oh I think I think here. No. For example if I speak about Burbank our shares during the last week minus 10 percent and men of that this is the red ink over the Brexit. I think that investors tried to include in the market share in the market price. This risk during the last two weeks. But I think it will be it will be done. Maybe we can get maybe minus 10 percent by the stock market in addition. Yeah. So you've already lost 10 percent of your share price. You think because of the uncertainty and if it actually happens spare Bank share price would in London fall another 10 percent cent I think I think it can be as much. But I think it will be very very sad news for all investors. And how would it affect Russia in general. I mean you just spoke about bear bank Mr Luke I was here he was talking about how he'd have a negative effect on the oil price and that would be bad for the Russian economy in general. So what might we be talking about minus 1 percent of what Russia would have had. How much could it cost. If you speak about GDP growth and I'm not sure that we can speak about 1 percent or how percent feel that not such a big influence on Russian GDP into Russian GDP. I think it will be a big influence on the stock market and I'm confused by the price of the Russian Federation bonds and the corporate bonds and what might really see there in terms of bond prices. I'm not sure that this situation can be for the long term. I said that I think between five and 10 percent is the real influence for the next 2 3 weeks for shares and for bonds Thein Sein and this is just for the ones that are listed in London or for the night is independent from the London stock market. It will be it will be panic and risk off . Yes. And I think it takes a time for understanding all consequences of that. And I think in one month we can see a recovery. But I think you know we can predict to all the negative results that panic is a big word. I think that I think it can be because nobody really and the financial world try to understand that we have these type of risk but nobody believes that this risk can be realised . And no relief in such a big uncertainty. What do you think it means for the ruble . I think that we must speak about door to door. You go up. Then we come through by their ruble price . I think nothing was found weakens against the dollar and the ruble weakens against the dollar as well . And you said that at longer term Russia is interested in the UK remaining in the European Union because you want to strong you because your biggest trading partner. But wouldn't it be better if Britain was outside of the European Union so you could. I don't know. Trade directly with Britain or trade directly with the EU . I mean one thing I will say is a lot of people in Britain think that Russia is hoping that Britain will leave the EU because Russia wants a weak EU. They see Russia as like the spoilers. You know the Kremlin waiting. I can't wait for this to happen . I think it's about the political speculations. Yeah. If you speak about the real needs of the Russian business or the Russian government I am I can believe that we have one person who would like to say really that Britain must leave European Union. I oh and in Russia once it was it was first time what you told me that I am losing this to this type of point of view. Oh yes. They think that Vladimir Putin is would be delighted for Britain to leave the European Union because it would be weaker No Russia could divide and conquer. It's increasingly true. Not true. Let me ask you quickly about the US election. One more put it structural pitted John Tucker Shery Ahn printing money. Finding to find out about me. I look like a yellow dog. What about Turkey. I know you've spoken about your units in Turkey already . And you said no we're not planning on selling this bank in Turkey. My question to you is can you imagine any reason why it would be good to sell the bank I think that we can imagine everything but we don't have a plan to sell our business in Turkey because this is the best country for us and the best business outside their efforts. Our bank is and very well. Very profitable. We have around how billion net profit. The Turkish market and we have a very strong position by the Turkish market and very strong team . Even with the problems on the political level between Russia and Turkey the bank is doing OK. Yes we feel the support from the Turkish government. You do. And now we're down to some real problems with our bank in Turkey . So investors were delighted to see the Russian Central Bank cut rates by 50 basis points. How many more rate cuts are we going to get this year. How low is the key rate going to go. It depends from the level of inflation. Yeah inflation but I think that my prediction that to the end of the year we can see maybe run once or twice the Russian central bank can decrease the key rate cut the ability either to keep the key rate is to what it depends from the inflation or not and have your set maybe 9 percent they think it's real. And on the ruble. I mean it's been a pretty volatile ride. We've been as weak as 82 . We're at 65 but we have the fall coming up. Right. So always chaotic in Russia in the fall. Is there a danger of another ruble devaluation. It depends from the oil price and the geopolitical tensions. It's stories which have which is very influential to the Russian currency where do you see the ruble at the end of 2016. I do not know if the old price will be around 60. I think that we can see or move around fifty five oil prices at 60. That's a kind of a bullish view. What if the oil price is at 50. I think the same level same level where we are right now. And what did you think of the euro bond. A lot of people in the West kind of said Russia's Eurobond a lot of people in the West kind of said that wasn't very smart. The whole idea was to show that Russia can access international markets and in fact it was mostly Russians that participated. And you know Euro clear wasn't part of it. What did you think about it I think that the Russian finance ministers don't need a lot of money because we tried to buy big state big stake of this bonds but we didn't get one bond. I think it was on the understanding the market situation and now I think the situation is more clear because we have the foreign buyers and if the friends ministry needs more money that they can do it in this year or next year. Last question about Russia. You guys are in charge of the Roses sale . So when is it going to happen. What's it going to look like . What kind of investors would be attractive for you. For you guys it would be better if it will be a big investor who can be a partner for all the so but always speak only about the one 1 think a strategic rider. Yeah it's whether when we can get the strategic interests or this the situation is no he's not so deep prepares for that take. I can speak more profound about privatization heroes. I think maybe we need two three months for preparing to prepare .

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Sberbank CEO Gref on Brexit, Russia's GDP, Bond Prices

Sberbank PJSC Chief Executive Officer Herman Gref discussed a possible Brexit, Russia's GDP, bond prices, and currencies with Bloomberg's Ryan Chilcote at Vladimir Putin’s annual investor forum in St. Petersburg on June 17. (Source: Bloomberg)

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