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00:00THE LANDSCAPE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT -- OR IS IT? WHAT ARE WE SEEING? >> IF YOU AVERAGE THE POLLS NOW, THERE HAS BEEN MOVED TO A MUCH TIGHTER RACE SINCE SIX OR SEVEN WEEKS AGO ALTHOUGH YOU NEED TO SEPARATE THE ONLINE POLLS FROM THE TELEPHONE POLES. BUT OVERALL, IT LOOKS TIGHTER THAN IN THE PAST. THE QUESTION IS -- WE MUST ALWAYS BE WARY ABOUT LEARNING FROM REFERENDA. THE SCOTTISH PULLING, WHICH WE WERE HEAVILY INVOLVED IN, LEAD TO THE U.K. WELL AHEAD, AND ULTIMATELY AT THE LAST MINUTE IT CAME BACK 55% TO STAY. AND I THINK THAT IS ONE SCENARIO. OVERALL MOST OF THE BETTING MARKETS ARE SUGGESTING THAT REMAIN IS WHERE THE MONEY IS GOING. THE POLLS HAVE REMAIN AHEAD, NARROWLY. BUT THERE HAVE BEEN UPSETS AND NOTHING IS EVER CERTAIN. GUY: DO YOU GET A SENSE OF WHAT MESSAGES ARE GETTING THROUGH, AND WHAT IS MOVING THE DIAL? >> WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THAT. THE PEOPLE WHO WANT TO LEAVE -- IT'S ALL ABOUT IMMIGRATION AND SOVEREIGNTY. BOTH GROUPS OF VOTERS ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THERE ARE SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC DISRUPTIONS IN FOR LEAVE THE VOTERS THAT IS LESS IMPORTANT. INTERESTINGLY, WE FOUND THAT FOR BOTH GROUPS OF VOTERS DESPITE THE ECONOMY BEING A KEY ISSUE THEY THINK THEIR SOLUTION IS GOING TO BE BETTER IN THE LONG TERM. ONE KEY ARGUMENT FOR REMAIN IS THAT ON TRADE WE HAVE BEEN DOING WHAT'S CALLED NARROW SCIENCE -- IMPLICIT RESPONSE ANALYSIS WHICH LOOKS AT HOW PEOPLE TAKE TO ANSWER A QUESTION. THAT IS A NEW DIMENSION IN RESEARCH, AND WHAT IT IS SHOWING IS THAT ALTHOUGH THEY THINK THEY WILL BE OK, IT TAKES THAT MUCH LONGER TO COME TO THE VIEW FOR REMAIN. IT IS CERTAINLY A KINK IN THE ARMOR. MATT: I CAN UNDERSTAND THE LEAVE CAMPAIGN EMOTIONAL CAMPAIGN -- THEY WANT THEIR SOVEREIGNTY BACK, THEY WANT TO BE THE MASTER OF THEIR OWN DOMAIN, BUT WHICH AREAS ARE THEY REALLY PUSHING AS FAR AS A NEED FOR INDEPENDENCE, AND DO THEY REALLY HAVE SUCH A LACK OF INDEPENDENCE? I CAN'T IMAGINE BRITAIN DOESN'T HAVE CONTROL OF HIS OWN IMMIGRATION POLICY. >> THIS IS NOT ABOUT NUMBERS, THIS IS NOT EVEN WITHOUT FACTS. THIS IS ABOUT DETERMINATION. THE DETAILS OF MONEY PAID TO THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE ACTUAL NUMBERS OF IMMIGRANTS THAT MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT ARISE IF WE STAYED OR LEFT -- A LOT OF THIS IS JUST CONFUSING VOTERS. THE PROPORTION OF PEOPLE WHO SAY THEY ARE UNDECIDED HAS INCREASED. IT'S VERY MUCH, PARTICULARLY FOR THE LEAVE BRIGADE, AN EMOTIONAL THING RATHER THAN ANYTHING DEFINITE ABOUT THE FUTURE. REMAIN AS THE CONSERVATIVE WITH A SMALL "C ," WHICH IS THERE TO SAY ULTIMATELY TURNS OUT TO WIN. MATT: DO THE REMAIN VOTERS -- ARE THEY TRULY TERRIFIED OF AN ACTUAL BREXIT? >> INTERESTINGLY, BOTH GROUPS OF VOTERS SAY THEY DON'T THINK, FROM THEIR OWN PERSONAL STANDARD OF LIVING, IT IS GOING TO CHANGE MUCH. MOST SAY THEY WON'T BE ANY DIFFERENCE. BUT WHAT IS VERY CLEAR IS THAT THE REMAINING VOTERS ASKED THAT, AS INDEED DOES THE MARKET, A LOT OF SHORT-TERM DISRUPTION OF THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, AND 90% OF ECONOMISTS WE PULLED LAST WEEK ARE SAYING THE SAME. LOTS OF ANXIETY ABOUT SHORT-TERM UPSET AND SHORT-TERM REDUCTIONS, AND IN MY 30 YEARS, I HAVE HAD MORE INTEREST IN THIS FROM THE FINANCIAL MARKETS IN TERMS OF WHAT THE POLLS ARE SAYING THAN ANYTHING ELSE IN MY ENTIRE CAREER. GUY: HOW ARE THE LE AVERS PERFORMING? HOW SIGNIFICANT OTHER INPUTS? >> OF COURSE THEY MATTER, BECAUSE THEY ARE THE TALKING HEADS WE SEE ON TELEVISION. THAT WHEN YOU ASK THE PUBLIC WHO THEY WILL PAY ATTENTION TO, THEY SAY POLITICIANS COME A LONG WAY DOWN THE LIST. GUY: SO WHO ARE THEY LISTENING TO? SOME ARGUE THAT THE PROCESS HAS BEEN POOR, THAT THE INFORMATION FLOW HAS NOT BEEN AS ACCURATE . WHAT ARE THEY BASING THEIR DECISIONS ON. YOU TALK ABOUT EMOTIONS -- READY FAX COME IN? >> THE FACTS ARE THERE, BUT THEY ARE INCREDIBLY HOTLY CONTESTED, AND NUMBERS ARE THROWN AROUND WITH ABANDON, WHICH LEAVES MOST PEOPLE TO GO WITH THEIR HEART. TV NEWS IS ON OF THE KEY SOURCES OF INFORMATION AND THE MEDIA -- I THINK THE KEY POINT IS THAT THERE IS NO POLITICIAN WHO TRUMPS EVERYONE AND ALL OF THEM HAVE ONLY GOT ABOUT ONE PERSON AND FIVE SAYING THEY THINK

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Brexit Polls Are Narrowing

Ipsos Mori Chief Executive Ben Page discusses the odds of a Brexit. He speaks with Bloomberg's Guy Johnson on "On the Move." (Source: Bloomberg)

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