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00:00AT THE COMPANY THAT USES ANALYTICS TO ADDRESS SOME OF THE WORLD'S CHALLENGES. SAUDI ARABIA APPEARED TO CHOOSE POLITICS OVER ECONOMICS WHEN PULLED OUT OF THE DOUGH HOT DISCUSSIONS. IS THAT A CANARY IN THE COAL MINE IN TERMS OF HOW AN OIL-PRODUCING NATION CAN REACH AN AGREEMENT IN THE FUTURE? GUEST: IT IS A KIND OF CANARY IN THE COAL MINE. BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN ANYTHING NEW. OPEC IS BASICALLY A CARTEL AND FOR A CARTEL TO COURT MADE ANYTHING FROM PRODUCTION TO A QUOTA, THEY NEED TO BE ABLE TO TRUST EACH OTHER. BECAUSE THEY DON'T TRUST EACH OTHER, THEY FAIL TO REACH AN AGREEMENT. WHAT WE SEE GOING ON WITH OPEC IS NOTHING NEW. . THIS HAS BEEN A HIGH POINT IN THEIR FAILURE BECAUSE OF SOME OF THE STUFF SAUDI ARABIA HAS BEEN INVOLVED IN POLITICALLY. BUT IT IS NOTHING NEW. JOE: THE QUESTION OF HIS OPEC SAID IT FEELS LIKE SUCH A CLICHE AT THIS POINT. BUT WE SAW THIS DELHOMME TALKS FAILURE AND OIL HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAN WE SAW THE STORY ABOUT A KUWAIT STRIKE AND THE KUWAIT STRIKE ENDING. THAT DID NOT SEEM TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON THE MARKET. IS ANYTHING GOING ON RELEVANT TO THE MARKET IN THE SHORT OR MEDIUM TERM? GUEST: I DON'T THINK SO. I DON'T THINK WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE REGION IS THAT RELEVANT WITH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS WE ARE SEEING. CERTAINLY, IF THEY WERE ABLE TO COORDINATE SOME TYPE OF QUOTA, WE WOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND ON THE PRICE OF OIL. I DON'T THINK THE THINGS THAT ARE GOING ON IN THE REGION HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. TRACY: SCARLET MENTIONED POLITICS DRIVING SAUDI ARABIA. WHAT ARE THE LEVERS THE COUNTRY CAN PULL IN TERMS OF OFFSETTING DECLINING OIL PRICES? WE HAVE SEEN IT CUT BACK ON MARKETS AND CUT INTERNATIONAL DEBT MARKETS. WHAT ELSE IS THERE? GUEST: ONE OF THE LEVELS THEY COULD HAVE PULLED IS COORDINATING A QUOTA PRICE. THAT MEANS THEY WOULD HAVE TO SACRIFICE THE MARKET SHARE. THAT WOULD HAVE REQUIRED FOR THEM TO REDUCE THEIR PRODUCTION DOUBLES WHICH THEY ARE UNWILLING TO BECAUSE IRAN IS ENTERING THE MARKET. THE IRANIANS ARE WILLING TO SET A VOTE OF THAT THEY DO NOT FEEL LIKE THEY SHOULD BE PARTY TO REDUCING THEIR PRODUCTION AS THEY ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REENTER THE MARKET WITH RELIEF FROM SANCTIONS. JOE: THAT SEEMS TO MAKE SENSE FROM IRAN'S PERSPECTIVE. IF YOU ARE UNDER SANCTIONS, WHY WOULD YOU WANT TO IMMEDIATELY TIRE HANDS JOINING THIS OUTPUT PHASE? GUEST: TO YOUR POINT, THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING ON. IT IS THE CLASSIC CASE OF THE PRISONER'S DILEMMA. BECAUSE THEY DON'T TRUST EACH OTHER AND IT WOULD REQUIRE A SHORT-TERM SACRIFICE FOR CERTAIN MEMBERS FOR A LONGER-TERM PRICE STABILITY, WE DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING. SCARLET: YOU TALK ABOUT HOW OIL PRICES AND VIOLENCE TO REALLY HAVE A CORRELATION. TALK TO US ABOUT THAT. GUEST: THAT IS ABSOLUTELY TRUE. WE LOOKED AT THE PRICE OF OIL GOING BACK 15 YEARS FOR ALL THE MAJOR PRODUCERS AND EXPORTERS AND WE SHOWED THAT AS THE PRICE OF OIL GOES UP, VIOLENCE GOES UP . IF THE PRICE OF OIL GOES DOWN, VIOLENCE OR DOWN. IF THERE IS INSTABILITY, IT IS FOR FACTORS OTHER THAN THE PRICE

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Predicting OPEC's Behavior: What's Their Next Move?

Amir Bagherpour, co-founder and chief political scientist at Gistrat, discusses OPEC's behavior, the failed Doha talks and what's ahead for the cartel. He speaks to Bloomberg's Scarlet Fu, Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway on "What'd You Miss?" (Source: Bloomberg)

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