Skip to content
Bloomberg the Company & Its ProductsThe Company & its ProductsBloomberg Terminal Demo RequestBloomberg Anywhere Remote LoginBloomberg Anywhere LoginBloomberg Customer SupportCustomer Support
  • Bloomberg

    Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world

    For Customers

    • Bloomberg Anywhere Remote Login
    • Software Updates
    • Manage Products and Account Information

    Support

    Americas+1 212 318 2000

    EMEA+44 20 7330 7500

    Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000

  • Company

    • About
    • Careers
    • Diversity and Inclusion
    • Tech At Bloomberg
    • Philanthropy
    • Sustainability
    • Bloomberg London
    • Bloomberg Beta
    • Gender-Equality Index

    Communications

    • Press Announcements
    • Press Contacts

    Follow

    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • LinkedIn
    • Instagram
  • Products

    • Bloomberg Terminal
    • Execution and Order Management
    • Content and Data
    • Financial Data Management
    • Integration and Distribution
    • Bloomberg Tradebook

    Industry Products

    • Bloomberg Law
    • Bloomberg Tax
    • Bloomberg Government
    • BloombergNEF
  • Media

    • Bloomberg Markets
    • Bloomberg Technology
    • Bloomberg Pursuits
    • Bloomberg Politics
    • Bloomberg Opinion
    • Bloomberg Businessweek
    • Bloomberg Live Conferences
    • Bloomberg Radio
    • Bloomberg Television
    • News Bureaus

    Media Services

    • Bloomberg Media Distribution
    • Advertising
  • Company

    • About
    • Careers
    • Diversity and Inclusion
    • Tech At Bloomberg
    • Philanthropy
    • Sustainability
    • Bloomberg London
    • Bloomberg Beta
    • Gender-Equality Index

    Communications

    • Press Announcements
    • Press Contacts

    Follow

    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • LinkedIn
    • Instagram
  • Products

    • Bloomberg Terminal
    • Execution and
      Order Management
    • Content and Data
    • Financial Data
      Management
    • Integration and
      Distribution
    • Bloomberg
      Tradebook

    Industry Products

    • Bloomberg Law
    • Bloomberg Tax
    • Bloomberg Government
    • Bloomberg Environment
    • BloombergNEF
  • Media

    • Bloomberg Markets
    • Bloomberg
      Technology
    • Bloomberg Pursuits
    • Bloomberg Politics
    • Bloomberg Opinion
    • Bloomberg
      Businessweek
    • Bloomberg Live Conferences
    • Bloomberg Radio
    • Bloomberg Television
    • News Bureaus

    Media Services

    • Bloomberg Media Distribution
    • Advertising
  • Bloomberg

    Connecting decision makers to a dynamic network of information, people and ideas, Bloomberg quickly and accurately delivers business and financial information, news and insight around the world

    For Customers

    • Bloomberg Anywhere Remote Login
    • Software Updates
    • Manage Contracts and Orders

    Support

    Americas+1 212 318 2000

    EMEA+44 20 7330 7500

    Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000

Bloomberg UK

Switch Editions
  • UK
  • Europe
  • US
  • Asia
  • Middle East
  • Africa
  • 日本
Sign In Subscribe
  • Bloomberg TV+

    Bloomberg Surveillance-

    Bloomberg Surveillance

    Bloomberg Surveillance. Live from London and New York, bringing insight on global markets and the top business stories of the day.

    Bloomberg Radio

    Bloomberg Surveillance

    Bloomberg Surveillance

    The economy and markets are "under surveillance". Bloomberg Surveillance, covering the latest news in finance, economics and investments.

    Listen

    Quicktake

    The Breakdown: John Deere Facing A Farmer Revolt

    The Breakdown: John Deere Facing A Farmer Revolt

    John Deere boasted record profits in 2021 and finally struck a deal with striking union workers. But now it has a bigger problem: farmers are revolting against restrictions on how they repair complex equipment.

    Also streaming on your TV:

    • Markets
      Markets
      • Economics
      • Deals
      • Odd Lots
      • The FIX | Fixed Income
      • ETFs
      • FX
      • Factor Investing
      • Alternative Investing
      • Economic Calendar
      • Markets Magazine
      Groundbreaking ceremony of fourth and final power unit of Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant

      Markets

      Turkish Builder Ditched by Rosatom Warns Nuclear Work Is Stalled

      Dubai Boosts Spending With $16.3 Billion Budget for 2022

      Markets

      Dubai Prices Skyrocket Less Than Year After Steep Deflation

      Market Data

      • Stocks
      • Commodities
      • Rates & Bonds
      • Currencies
      • Futures
      • Sectors

      Follow Bloomberg Markets

      View More Markets
    • Technology
      Technology
      • Work Shifting
      • Code Wars
      • Checkout
      • Prognosis
      Views of Xiaomi Store As Smartphone Maker Reports Earnings

      Technology

      Xiaomi Profit Misses Estimates on Smartphone Business Slump

      A food delivery courier for Just Eat Takeaway.com NV along Brick Lane in London.

      Technology

      Just Eat Leads Food Delivery’s Stunning, Market-Beating Rally

      XXXXXXX TBC

      Technology

      South Africa ‘Confident’ Over TotalEnergies Gas Development Plan

      Follow Bloomberg Technology

      View More Technology
    • Politics
      Politics
      • US
      • UK
      • Americas
      • Europe
      • Asia
      • Middle East
      UK’s Truss Stands by Vow to ‘Call Out’ Putin at G-20

      Politics

      UK’s Truss Stands by Vow to ‘Call Out’ Putin at G-20

      The Covid-19 set up at the Asia World Expo (AWE) in Hong Kong.

      Politics

      Hong Kong Reopens Major Covid Site as Cases Hit Four-Month High

      Featured

      • Hong Kong's 25 Years Under China
      • Next China

      Follow Bloomberg Politics

      View More Politics
    • Wealth
      Wealth
      • Investing
      • Living
      • Opinion & Advice
      • Savings & Retirement
      • Taxes
      • Reinvention
      A Bed Bath & Beyond Store Ahead Of Earnings Figures

      Wealth

      Cohen Makes Millions on Bed Bath & Beyond as Meme Traders Recoil

      RF daycare children child care

      Living

      Return to Office Is Being Threatened by a Child Care Crisis in Australia

      Featured

      • How to Invest

      Follow Bloomberg Wealth

      View More Wealth
    • Pursuits
      Pursuits
      • Travel
      • Autos
      • Homes
      • Living
      • Culture
      • Style
      See It? Squish It! Fighting the Invasive Spotted Lanternfly

      Pursuits

      See It? Squish It! Fighting the Invasive Spotted Lanternfly

      London Teeters Towards Water Rationing as Dry Spell Persists

      Pursuits

      Britain’s Iconic Roses Are Withering Away. Here’s What the Traditional Garden Will Look Like

      Featured

      • Screentime
      • New York Property Prices
      • Where to Go in 2022

      Follow Bloomberg Pursuits

      View More Pursuits
    • Opinion
      Opinion
      • Business
      • Finance
      • Economics
      • Markets
      • Politics & Policy
      • Technology & Ideas
      • Editorials
      • Letters
      Finland's TVO Gets Nuclear-Fuel Loading Permit for OL-3 Reactor

      Liam Denning

      Rejuvenating the Reactors: Elements by Liam Denning

      US-BUSINESS-COMPANY-CENTER-AMAZON

      Thomas Black

      Robots Are Key to Winning the Productivity War

      Senate Health Committee Examines Ongoing Response To COVID-19

      Faye Flam

      The CDC Needs to Admit Its Covid Mistakes

      Follow Bloomberg Opinion

      View More Opinion
    • Businessweek
      Businessweek
      • The Bloomberg 50
      • Best B-Schools
      • Small Business Survival Guide
      • 50 Companies to Watch
      • Good Business
      • Subscribe to the Magazine
      Richest Silicon Valley Suburb Says Build Anywhere But Here

      Technology

      Richest Silicon Valley Suburb Says Build Anywhere But Here

      Neobanks Are Struggling to Make Good on Their Lofty Promises

      Finance

      Neobanks Are Struggling to Make Good on Their Lofty Promises

      Stories of Climate Adaptation From a Simmering Subcontinent

      Economics

      Stories of Climate Adaptation From a Simmering Subcontinent

      Follow Bloomberg Businessweek

      View More Businessweek
    • Equality
      Equality
      • Corporate Leadership
      • Capital
      • Society
      • Solutions
      Inside The Financial Conduct Authority As Investigations Begin Into Private Accounts Of Forex Traders

      City of London

      UK Warns Buy-Now-Pay-Later Firms on Ads Amid Household Squeeze

      Inside The SAP SE Campus Ahead of Earnings

      Equality

      Two SAP Staffers Say HR Mishandled Their Work-Event Rape Claims

      Key Speakers At Republican Party Of Florida 2022 Victory Dinner

      Equality

      Florida's 'Stop Woke Act' for Workplaces Blocked by Federal Judge

      Follow Bloomberg Equality

      View More Equality
    • Green
      Green
      • New Energy
      • ESG Investing
      • Weather & Science
      • Electric Vehicles
      • Climate Politics
      • Greener Living
      • Cleaner Tech
      Wind Drives Major Wildfire in Spain as 35 Aircraft Deployed

      Green

      Wind Drives Major Wildfire in Spain as 35 Aircraft Deployed

      Yangtze Shrinks as China's Drought Disrupts Industry

      Green

      Yangtze Shrinks as China's Drought Disrupts Industry

      Featured

      • Data Dash
      • Hyperdrive

      Follow Bloomberg Green

      View More Green
    • CityLab
      CityLab
      • Design
      • Culture
      • Transportation
      • Economy
      • Environment
      • Housing
      • Justice
      • Government
      • Technology
      Demonstrators Protest Amid Leaked Supreme Court Draft To Overturn Roe V. Wade

      Government

      New England Cities Fight Abortion Misinformation With Truth-in-Ads Laws

      Penn Station renderings

      QuickTake

      What Penn Station’s $6 Billion Makeover Means for NYC

      American Suburban Houses

      Housing

      The Fight Against Evictions Moves to the Courts

      Follow Bloomberg CityLab

      View More CityLab
    • Crypto
      Crypto
      • Decentralized Finance
      • NFTs
      • Regulation
      • Technology
      family friends

      Crypto

      Crypto Newbies Have Family and Friends to Thank for Losses

      VK Company Ltd. Tech Office Following Gazprom Deal

      Crypto

      Crypto Firm Hodlnaut Reveals Singapore Police Proceedings

      Russia's Minto Cryptocurrency Mining Farm

      Crypto

      Japan’s Largest Online Broker to Shut Crypto Mining in Russia

      Follow Bloomberg Crypto

      View More Crypto

Live on Bloomberg TV

CC-Transcript

  • 00:00OR BEING A DOMINANT FORCE, REALLY, FOR OIL PRICES. FOR MORE ON OIL, LET'S BRING IN THE DIRECTOR OF COMMODITY STRATEGIES FOR THE EURASIA GROUP. IT'S FUNNY, I COUPLE OF DAYS AGO PEOPLE WERE SAYING THAT IT LOOKED LIKE WE HAD REACHED THE BOTTOM IN OIL, THINGS WERE STABILIZING. YOU TURN AROUND AND BARCLAYS COMES OUT WITH A REPORT SAYING -- HANG ON, HEAD FOR THE EXITS, THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH FUNDAMENTALS. >> I WOULDN'T SAY THAT. I THINK IT HAS A LOT TO DO WITH FUNDAMENTALS. THE SUPER CYCLE IS OVER. PEOPLE ARE USED TO SEEING OIL DO ONE THING, GO STRAIGHT UP. I THINK WE NEED TO GET USED TO A NEW PRICE REGIME. THAT'S REALLY ALL ABOUT RESETTING INTO RANGES . WE'VE HAD FORCEFUL RALLIES FROM THE LOWS. FOR SURE. BETTY: IT WAS LIKE A 25 YEAR LOW. BRUNO: SURE, SURE, WE NEEDED TO TEST THE RESOLVE OF U.S. OIL AND GAS PRODUCERS. LET FORGET, WE MEDIA PRODUCTION OFF THE MARKET. BETTY: BUT IS THIS ENOUGH? AT WHAT POINT DOES THIS BRING THE SHALE PRODUCERS BACK IN TO CAPITALIZE ON SOMEWHAT HIGHER PRICES? BRUNO: THE ANSWER IS THAT IT'S VERY HARD TO TELL. THE REASON FOR THAT IS THAT WE'VE NEVER BEEN THROUGH A CYCLE WITH SHALE YET. YOU CAN'T INCLUDE 2008 FROM THE CYCLE -- IN THE CYCLE BECAUSE THE BOUNCE FROM THE LOW WAS SO EXTREME AND IT DIDN'T START AS AN OIL PROBLEM. IT STARTED AS A REAL ESTATE PROBLEM. WE CANNOT FORGET, THE SHALE PHENOMENON IS A NASCENT PHENOMENON. WE HAVEN'T BEEN THROUGH A CYCLE YET. WE DON'T REALLY KNOW. WHAT WE CAN DO IS GRAVITATE TOWARDS WHAT THE EMTS ARE TELLING US. WHAT THEY ARE TELLING US IS THAT ON $50 AVERAGE IN THE U.S., THEY ARE LEARNING HOW TO BE PROFITABLE. FIRST I THINK WE SET A RANGE. BETTY: WAIT, SO WHAT'S THE RANGE? BRUNO: LOOK, WE ARE CALLING FOR AN AVERAGE PRICE OF $40 AND 2016 BECAUSE WE DON'T THINK THAT PRODUCTION WILL COME OFF MATERIALLY UNTIL WE GET INTO THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2017. THAT WILL BE PRICED BASED. WHAT'S ULTIMATELY HAPPENING, PRODUCTION DECLINES, THE WELLS ARE NEVER BETTER OR MORE PRODUCTIVE THAN THE FIRST DAY THEY ARE DRILLED. EVERY DAY AFTER THAT YOU START TO LOSE STEAM IN THE WELL. YOU HAVE TO CONSTANTLY DRILL NEW RESERVES. TRILLING NEW RESERVES IS NOT GENERALLY ECONOMICAL AT THESE LEVELS. WE ARE STARTING TO DISINCENTIVE EYES NEW PRODUCTION COMING ON. DECLINES WILL KICK IN, THE MARKET WILL REBALANCE. BETTY: SO FAR SINCE 2015 WE HAVE SEEN MORE THAN 50 BANKRUPTCIES OF NORTH AMERICAN OIL AND GAS COMPANIES. HOW MUCH FURTHER DOES THIS HAVE TO RUN? BRUNO: YOU KNOW, THAT'S THE MILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION. EVERYONE SEEMS TO GRAVITATE TOWARDS THAT QUESTION. EVERY PIECE IS DIFFERENT. BUT IF YOU LOOK AT HISTORY, RIGHT? WHAT YOU REALLY KNOW IS THAT WHEN PRODUCERS GO INTO BANKRUPTCY, IT'S NOT LIKE THE SPIGOT GETS TURNED OFF AND THAT'S IT. SOMETIMES A BANKRUPTCY PROTECTION CAN MAINTAIN PRODUCTION. WHILE YOU HAVE ORGANIZED THE COMPANY IT IS IN EVERYONE'S BEST INTEREST TO HAVE ONGOING AND PROFITABLE OPERATIONS. THE REALITY IS THAT EVEN IF THEY DECLARE BANKRUPTCY, THE PRODUCTION IS NOT GOING AWAY, A PORTION OF IT IS GOING AWAY. WHAT I THINK THE REAL OUTLIER RISK IS IF BANKS THAT HAVE ALREADY LET MONEY TO PRODUCERS HAVE DRAWN LINES OF CREDIT , THERE IS A RISK THAT SOME OF THESE BANKS GET WORRIED AND THEY DEMAND MONEY BACK. BETTY: THAT HAPPENED IN TEXAS, DIDN'T IT? IN THE 1980'S? THERE WERE A LOT OF BANKRUPTCIES. BRUNO: A LOT OF REPORTS OF COME OUT TO SAY THAT THERE WERE 30 COMPANIES THAT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO'S TO LAW FIRMS, BANKRUPTCY LAW FIRMS IN PREPARATION. THE QUESTION REALLY IS -- HOW MANY COMPANIES THAT ARE VOLUMETRIC LATE SIGNIFICANT -- VOLUMETRICALY SIGNIFICANT ARE GOING TO GO UP? LISA: SPEAKING OF, WHAT IS THE CHANCE THAT OPEC COULD COME TO AN ACCORD ABOUT A PRODUCTION FREEZE? BRUNO: WE HAVE TAKEN A LONG, HARD LOOK AT THIS AND AS A COMPANY WE UNDERSTAND THE POLITICS A WELL, LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE EAST. WE ARE ONLY PUTTING UP A 15% PROBABILITY THAT SOMETHING WILL HAPPEN AND LIKELY IF IT DOES, IT WILL BE A FREEZE. A FREEZE ON JANUARY OUTPUT LEVELS THAT DOESN'T DO MUCH TO BALANCE THE MARKET. AT THE END OF THE DAY, I THINK THAT OPEC IS SMARTER THAN PEOPLE GIVE THEM CREDIT FOR. THEY KNOW THAT THIS IS A SECULAR SHIFT IN THE MANNER IN WHICH WE PRODUCE OIL. THE GENIE IS OUT OF THE BOTTLE. WE KNOW THAT. IT BEHOOVES THEM TO ACTUALLY COMPENSATE FOR LOWER PRICES BY GAINING MORE VOLUME. HOW YOU COMBAT A LOWER PRICE REALIZATION? YOU INCREASE VOLUME. THEY WILL GO AFTER MARKET SHARE. EVEN IF YOU DO COME UP WITH SOMETHING, WHEN THE RUBBER HITS THE ROAD THE REALITY IS THAT THE NUMBERS WILL NOT ADD UP. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE FOR MARKET SHARE. LISA: SO -- BETTY: SO, BRUNO, TO TOP IT ALL OFF, WHAT DO YOU THINK WAS BEHIND THIS DATE REBOUND? SHORT COVERING? IS THERE A SOUND CAUSE FOR THIS? WHAT WAS IT? BRUNO: I THINK THERE WERE A COUPLE OF THINGS. PRIMARILY IT WAS FLOW DRIVEN. PEOPLE CHASING ALPHA. IF YOU LOOK AT CRUDE OIL'S PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO EVERY OTHER ASSET CLASS LAST YEAR, IT WAS HORRIFIC. RIGHT? LOOK AT THE PRICE DECLINE. A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE GEARING UP FOR COMMODITIES TO OUTPERFORM. YOU HAVE TO PUT MONEY TO WORK. YOU ARE GOING TO ALLOCATE SOMETHING. ALLOCATING MORE TO COMMODITIES VERSUS OTHER ASSET CLASSES. THAT IS WHY YOU HAVE SEEN THAT PERFORMANCE. HAVING SAID THAT, FUNDAMENTALLY WE ARE SEEING SOME SIGNS OF DEMAND STABILIZING. CHINA WAS A BIG FACTOR. PEOPLE WERE WORRIED ABOUT A HARD LANDING. WE ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN THE MODERATION FOR DEMAND. PEOPLE SEEM TO BE EMBRACING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE FISCAL MEASURES. SO, CHINA IS NOT AS BIG A PROBLEM IN THE EYES OF THE WORLD. GASOLINE HAS BEEN A SHINING STAR OF DEMAND. CONSUMERS ARE NOT SPENDING IT ON A LOT OF THINGS. BUT 56% OF NEW CAR SALES ARE SUV'S ALL OF A SUDDEN. ON A MICRO LEVEL, GASOLINE DEMAND HAS BEEN STRONG THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. CHINA IS LESS OF AN ISSUE. THE FISCAL PLANS SEEM TO BE SATIATING CONCERNS IN THE MARKET. I THINK THIS OTHER FACTOR IS --
  • NOW PLAYING

    Why U.S. Crude Production Might Not Fall Until 2017

  • 01:26

    Kailey's Market Movers

  • 02:57

    Credit Suisse Holder Herro Says Bank Has Been ‘Problem Child’

  • 13:34

    First Look With Surveillance: Putin G-20, Trump Affidavit

  • 46:36

    'Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe' Full Show (08/19/2022)

  • 03:14

    Japan's Brewer Asahi to Maintain Profits, CEO Saya

  • 01:28

    UK Retail Sales Unexpectedly Rise 0.3% in July

  • 06:12

    Another 75-Basis Point Fed Hike Is Baked in the Cake: Pang

  • 03:30

    Fed Speak, Peak Dollar, Inflation Cycle: 3-Minute MLIV

  • 47:35

    'Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East' Full Show (08/19/2022)

  • 05:44

    China Property Sector Challenging Next 6 to 12 Months: Tsang

  • 01:35:29

    'Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia' Full Show (08/19/2022)

  • 47:44

    'Bloomberg Markets: China Open' Full Show (08/19/2022)

  • 04:39

    Morningstar: Tencent Well-Positioned For Earnings Turnaround

  • 05:28

    SGMC Capital's Bondurri on Markets

  • 07:07

    Asian Trade Center's Elms on US-Taiwan Trade

Stream Schedule:

U.S. BTV+
  • U.S. BTV+
  • U.S. BTV
  • Europe BTV
  • Asia BTV
  • Australia BTV
  • U.S. Live Event
  • EMEA Live Event
  • Asia Live Event
  • Politics Live Event
No schedule data available.

Why U.S. Crude Production Might Not Fall Until 2017

  • Bloomberg Markets

  • TV Shows

March 29th, 2016, 7:22 PM GMT+0000

Bruno Stanziale, Eurasia Group's director of commodity strategy, discusses the outlook for oil prices and production with Bloomberg's Betty Liu and Lisa Abramowicz on "Bloomberg Markets." (Source: Bloomberg)


  • More From Bloomberg Markets

    • 01:28

      UK Retail Sales Unexpectedly Rise 0.3% in July

      5 hours ago
    • 06:12

      Another 75-Basis Point Fed Hike Is Baked in the Cake: Pang

      6 hours ago
    • 03:30

      Fed Speak, Peak Dollar, Inflation Cycle: 3-Minute MLIV

      6 hours ago
    • 05:44

      China Property Sector Challenging Next 6 to 12 Months: Tsang

      6 hours ago
    All episodes and clips
    See all shows
    Terms of Service Trademarks Privacy Policy ©2022 Bloomberg L.P. All Rights Reserved
    Careers Made in NYC Advertise Ad Choices Help