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00:00LARGER, U.S. GROWTH, WHAT WILL IT BE? AND THE FINANCIAL CONDITIONS OF EUROPEAN BANKS TO THE EXTENT THEY WILL BE TARRED GROWTH IN EUROPE. -- REGARD EUROPE GROWTH. MIKE: YOU HAVE TO ASK WHETHER -- EUROPEAN TWO-YEAR SWAP RATES AND YOU DO NOT SEE A WHOLE LOT OF MOVEMENT SUGGESTING DEUTSCHE BANK IS A LITTLE BIT OF A ONE-OFF WITH INVESTOR CONCERNS. THERE IS STILL CREDIT AVAILABLE , FINANCIAL CONDITIONS IN THE UNITED STATES HAD BEEN TIGHTENING AND THAT WAS BROUGHT UP BY A NUMBER OF FED OFFICIALS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS BUT THAT HAS FLATTENED OUT. MAYBE WE ARE GETTING PAST SOME OF THE VOLATILITY AND THAT WILL GIVE THE THAT A CHANCE TO CATCH ITS BREATH. STEPHANIE: IT DOES NOT SEEM THERE IS ONE CLEAR DISASTER THAT IS HURTING U.S. MARKETS BUT OVERALL THREATS ACROSS THE BOARD . WHAT IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO THE U.S. ? GLENN: UNCERTAINTY OVER THE GROWTH RATE ITSELF. THE ECONOMY IS POSITIONED TO GROW IN THE 2% RANGE OVER THE NEXT YEAR OR SO. I DO NOT THINK THE FED WILL PAUSE TOO LONG. WE WILL NOT SEE ACTION NOW OR IN MARCH, BUT I DO NOT THINK THE FED CORE BELIEF ARE BEING SHAKEN. DAVID: KENNY MARKETS BECOME A SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY AND DRIVE US INTO A RECESSION? GLENN: THROUGH DESTROYING WEALTH, THAT CAN HAPPEN. THE VOLATILITY IS A SURPRISE BECAUSE NOTHING WE ARE LOOKING AT IS NEWS. STEPHANIE: THAT'S WHY MORE AND MORE INVESTORS ARE SITTING IN CASH BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY. WHAT CATALYST COULD WE SEE THAT WILL TURN INVESTORS TO THE RIGHT OR LEFT? WE ARE AT A JUNCTION WHERE WE COULD GO MASSIVELY BULLISH OR BEARISH. GLENN: BETTER POLICY, IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. THE THING THAT COULD LIFT EXPECTATIONS OF BUSINESS PEOPLE IS BETTER FISCAL POLICY. I DO NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE AMERICAN ELECTIONS. >> MAYBE WE GET GOOD ECONOMIC DATA AND THAT TURNS PEOPLE'S MINDS BUT DO YOU BELIEVE THE LARRY SUMMERS SECULAR STAGNATION THAT THIS IS AS GOOD AS WE WILL BE ABLE TO DO AND WE SHOULD GET USED TO THAT? GLENN: I DO NOT COME I DO NOT SEEK REASONS FOR A PERMANENT DECLINE IN PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND A LOT WE COULD DO TO IMPROVE . THESE ARE POLICY ISSUES AND IF WE DO NOT CHANGE POLICY, SECULAR STAGNATION MAY BE CORRECT BUT WHY WOULD WE NOT CHANGE? DAVID: IT IS NOT GROWING THE WAY IT WAS AND WE CANNOT FIGURE OUT WHY. GLENN: WHAT ISSUE IS MEASUREMENT, WE ARE NOT SURE HOW IT IS GROWING, WE MEASURED THE GOODS PRODUCING SECTOR WELL AND THE SERVICE PRODUCING SECTOR, MORE OF THE ECONOMY, THE OTHER ISSUE IS WE HAVE POLICIES HOLDING PRODUCTIVITY BACK LIKE TAX POLICIES. THE WAY WE TAX BUSINESSES AND REGULATORY POLICY, UNCERTAINTY OVER THE ENTIRE POLICY ENVIRONMENT, ALL OF THIS IS A TAX ON PRODUCTIVITY. DAVID: YOU DESCRIBE IT AS THE EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO AMERICA BUT IT SEEMS TO BE GETTING WORTH -- WORSE. GLENN: A POLITICALLY CAMPAIGNS ARE TALKING ABOUT THREATS FROM WITHOUT, THE THREAT TO THE COUNTRY IS FROM WITHIN, FROM A POLITICAL SYSTEM NOT KEEPING UP WITH ECONOMIC REALITY. STEPHANIE: FROM A POLITICAL PERSPECTIVE AS WE LOOK AT THESE CAMPAIGNS, WHY DO WE REMAIN ANTICORPORATE AMERICA AND BIG BUSINESS. BIG BUSINESSES, IF WE INCENTIVIZE THEM, THEY CREATE JOBS AND MANUFACTURE, THAT WILL DRIVE THE ECONOMY FORWARD. GLENN: YOU HAVE SOME CANDIDATES TALKING LIKE THAT, THE FRONT-RUNNERS IN BOTH PARTIES APPEAR TO BE DEMAGOGUES BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN ALL THE CANDIDATES ARE AND EVENTUALLY THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WILL CENTER ON THIS MESSAGE BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO. STEPHANIE: HAVE YOU TOLD JEB BUSH TO SAY THIS? >> HE SAID HE WANTS 4% GROWTH A YEAR, BUT WHAT ARE JEB BUSH'S SPECIFIC POLICIES HE'S ADVOCATING? GLENN: HE HAS A COMPLETE ECONOMIC PLAN CENTERING ON BIG AREAS, TAX POLICY, MAKING SHORT WEEK GET A BUSINESS TAXATION RIGHT, TRADE POLICY, MAKING SURE WE HAVE SMART, FAIR, AND FREE-TRADE. EDUCATION AND SKILLS TRAINING, REFORM OF ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS, REGULATORY CONFERENCE OF REGULATORY REFORM, A ROOT AND BRANCH FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH. STEPHANIE: MICHAEL MCKEE, YOU STUDY ECONOMICS, IF THIS IS PART OF HIS PLATFORM, MANY PEOPLE SAY THEY HAVE NOT HEARD HIS STORY, DO YOU KNOW THIS? MICHAEL: I DO BECAUSE I HAVE STUDIED IT, THE PROBLEM IS PRESIDENTS PROPOSE AND CONGRESS DISPOSES AND I AM CURIOUS AS TO WHAT EVIDENCE YOU HAVE THAT THERE IS WILLINGNESS ON CAPITOL HILL TO DO ANYTHING ALONG THOSE LINES? YOU CANNOT ADJUST THE TAX DON'T LET ALONE RAISE OR LOWER TAXES. GLENN: -- WE HAVE A DEMOCRATIC -- PRESIDENT AND REPUBLICAN CONGRESS, A REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT AND CONGRESS COULD ACCOMPLISH EVERYTHING I OUTLINED. AT THE MOMENT, WE HAVE GRIDLOCK. ALL THE POLICIES ARE STUCK IN THE WRONG PLACE. IF WE DO NOT DO SOMETHING, THE DEFAULTS ARE ANTI-GROWTH. DAVID: FOUR YEARS, IT HAS BEEN SAID THAT WALL STREET PREPARES GRIDLOCK GOES NOTHING UNTOWARD HAPPENS GLENN:. NOTHING -- GLENN: WE WILL NOT FIX ENTITLEMENTS OR STRENGTHEN THE NATION OR INVEST IN RESEARCH OR REFORM THE TAXES. THAT DOES NOT SOUND GOOD. STEPHANIE: WHEN I WAKE UP I FEEL UNLUCKY, WHEN I SIT AT A TABLE WITH ALL OF YOU I FEEL VERY LUCKY THAT ALL THESE GENTLEMEN ARE STAYING WITH US. WHAT A MORNING WE ARE HAVING, TAKING A LOOK AT ONE OF DAVID'S FAVORITE RESTAURANT, RED LOBSTER SAYS SALES SPIKED 33% YEAR OVER

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What Are the Biggest Economic and Market Concerns?

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