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00:00MUCH OF IT AT ALL. IT IS PROBABLY THE WORST KIND OF RECOMMENDATION YOU COULD MAKE. TRYING TO SELL TO THE KIND OF WEAKNESS WE HAD OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO, WOULD REALLY JUST BE DOING YOURSELF A TREMENDOUS DISSERVICE. WHAT YOU REALLY WANT TO BE DOING NOW IS FOCUSING ON THE CONCERN BUT REALIZING MANY OF THESE CONCERNS HAVE ALREADY BEEN PRICED INTO THE OVERALL MARKET. WE MIGHT HAVE MORE DOWNSIDE WITH OIL BUT I DO NOT SEE IT GOING DOWN TO 16 OR EVEN $18 PER BARREL. I DO FORESEE OIL TRADING INTO THE UPPER 20'S IT IF IT GETS THERE, WE COULD SEE 23 OR 24. I DO NOT SEE IT STAYING THERE. I THINK THERE IS A LOT OF OPTIMISM THAT OIL WILL REBOUND THIS YEAR. I THINK IT GETS BACK TO 45. IF IT GETS THERE ON SOME STRENGTH, BUT I THINK THEN IT PULLS BACK AND AS THE PULLBACK OCCURS, YOU WANT TO BE A BUYER ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE A LONG-TERM INVESTOR. ALIX: FOR STOCKS, YOU SEE A THE 6% GROWTH FOR THE S & P THIS YEAR. WHAT DOES THAT LEAVE FOR THE GROWTH? >> YOU WILL SEE A LOT OF INTEREST INITIALLY GOING INTO THE EUROPEAN MARKETS. AND THE EMERGING MARKETS. PEOPLE LOOK AT EMERGING MARKETS AS REPRESENTING A LOT OF VALUE. EVENTUALLY YOU WILL SEE THE HOPES AND TO THE QUANTITATIVE EASING REALLY START TO FADE AWAY BECAUSE IT IS NOT GOING TO PRODUCE ANY KINDS OF GAINS IN THE OVERALL ECONOMY. FIRST, THEY WILL LOOK FOR RELATIVE SAVINGS, THINGS LIKE HEALTH CARE AND CONSUMER STAPLES, TECHNOLOGY. THEN I THINK THEY WILL MIGRATE BACK INTO THE BIG MOMENTUM NAMES BECAUSE THEY STILL REPRESENT GROWTH. ALIX: WHAT DO YOU DO IN THE SHORT-TERM? IT SEEMS THEIR THE EARNINGS SEASON WILL BE SO CONFUSING BECAUSE YOU DO NOT KNOW WHAT OIL PRICES WILL DO. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR COMPANIES TO GIVE THEIR FORECAST WHEN YOU HAVE OIL AND CHINA BEING THESE TWO BIG QUESTION MARKS. >> I THINK YOU HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK NOT ONLY AT VALUATION LEVELS BUT FUNDAMENTALS. HOW THE COMPANIES ARE OPERATING, WHAT THE OUTLOOK IS, WHAT THE GROWTH PROSPECTS FOR THEIR PRODUCTS ARE. THEN YOU HAVE TO LOOK OF THE TECHNICALS. SEE HOW THE STOCKS ARE TRADING PRIOR TO THE MOST RECENT DOWNWARD TREND. IF THE STOCKS HAD BEEN MOVING UP, BUT HAVE ONLY COME BACK WITH THE OVERALL MARKET, IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN THESE ARE BROKEN COMPANIES OR BROKEN CHARTS. IT JUST MEANS THAT STOCKS HAVE PARED BACK WITH THE MARKET. IF YOU LOOK AT THIS CORRIDOR 'S EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS, YOU SEE A DECLINE BUT THAT IS ANALYSTS TRYING TO KOWTOW TO THE OVERALL COMPANIES. HE WILL SEE PLENTY OF COMPANIES BE ABLE TO BEAT EXPECTATION. NUMBERS WILL PROBABLY BE RELATIVELY WEAK BUT THEN I FOCUS ON QUALITY NAMES LIKE HEALTH CARE, MURDER, BRISTOL-MYERS, THINGS LIKE LILY, THINGS LIKE PFIZER. I THINK THE COMPANIES WILL BE ABLE TO CARRY YOU OVER THE NEAR-TERM VOLATILITY THE MARKET WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE. THEN I TAKE A LOOK AT THINGS LIKE CONSUMER STAPLES, COSTCO, CBS -- CVS. AND THEN IN THE CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPACE, I LOOK AT THINGS LIKE HOME DEPOT, STARBUCKS, DISNEY I THINK IS A PRIME EXAMPLE OF A STOCK UNFAIRLY BEATEN DOWN. SO I TAKE A LOOK AT THEM. COMPANIES THAT ARE SERVING THE PUBLIC IN THESE TYPES OF SPACES ARE NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO BE IMPACTED BY CHINA'S GROWTH OR GLOBAL GROWTH IN THE UNITED STATES. ALIX: YOU MAKE A GOOD POINT. BUT IN THE CASE OF DISNEY, DISNEY IS UNDERGOING A STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE MEDIA INDUSTRY. THERE IS A REASON THE STOCK GOT HIT SO HARD LAST YEAR. OTHER NAMES AS WELL. A SHIFT IN HOW WE ARE VIEWING OUR NEWS, FOR EXAMPLE. HOW DO YOU FACTOR THAT IN WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE CALLS ISOLATED FROM CHINA? >> I THINK YOU HAVE TO GO BACK TO THE FUNDAMENTALS, HOW THE COMPANIES ARE BEING MANAGED, WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH PROSPECTS THEY HAVE. THERE IS THEY QUESTION ABOUT ESPN OUT THERE, PEOPLE BRING UP CABLE PACKAGES. FOR THE MOST PART, IT WILL NOT BE HAPPENING WITH THE GENERAL POPULATION. MAYBE SOME PEOPLE ARE DISCONNECTING THEMSELVES WITH CABLE BUT FOR THE MOST PART, ESPN WILL STILL BE THE WAY MOST PEOPLE ARE ENTERTAINED WITH SPORTS. I AM NOT THAT CONCERNED WITH IT. THEY HAVE A TREMENDOUS FRANCHISE WITH THE STAR WARS BRAND, WITH THE MARVEL BRAND. I THINK THAT WILL CARRY THEM OVER THE SHORT TERM. I AM NOT OVERLY FOCUSED ON THE SHORT TERM. ALIX: GREAT STUFF. THANK YOU, ROBERT. CHIEF STRATEGIST. STILL AHEAD, WE WILL HEAR FROM BIOGEN'CEO AND TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT WHY HEALTH CARE STOCKS ARE HAVING THEIR WORST START OF THE YEAR IN 15 YEARS. ♪

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