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00:00EURASIA GROUP RESEARCHERS JOINS US NOW. THIS IS BETTER THAN WE THOUGHT . HOW STRONG A VICTORY WAS IT AND WILL IT TRANSLATE INTO REALITY? >> I DISAGREE, I THINK IT WAS WHAT WAS EXPECTED AND SHE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY DISAPPOINTED. THE POLLS WERE SHOWING HER AT ABOUT 30%. WE HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS. IT CERTAINLY MEANS THEY ARE NOW A POLITICAL FORCE THAT IS PRESENT ON EVERY BALLOT. GUY: WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR NICOLAS SARKOZY? CHARLES: THIS IS A MIDTERM FOR THEM AND IF THEY WON A LOT OF REGIONS LAST TIME BECAUSE SARKOZY WAS IN POWER, SO IT IS MORE DIFFICULT FOR HIS REPUBLICAN PARTY. I THINK THE BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE IN HOW THEY COORDINATE A MESSAGE BETWEEN FORMING UNITED FRONTS AND MAINTAINING THEIR IDENTITY THEY SING SOCIALISTS. GUY: DO WE GET A COALITION EFFECTIVELY? IS THAT WHAT THE REALITY IS GOING TO END UP BEING? CHARLES: THE SOCIALISTS ARE PULLING OUT OF SOME OF THE RACES SAYS REPUBLICANS MIGHT BE ABLE TO SAY THEY ARE NOT TAKING PART IN THE COALITION, BUT THEY ARE BEING HELPED BY THE FACT THAT THE SOCIALISTS ARE PULLING OUT. THERE'S ALSO THE FACT -- SO THEY ARE ONLY REALLY TWO REGIONS WHERE THEY ARE CONTENDERS. THE ARE FAVORITES. GUY: WHY ARE PEOPLE WAITING FOR THEM? FRUSTRATION WITH MAINSTREAM POLITICS? CHARLES: THEY HAVE TRIED THE CENTER RIGHT AND LEFT, NOT FEELING GREAT ABOUT THE ECONOMIC SITUATION SO WHY NOT GUY:? WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THAT, WHEN YOU LOOK AT POLICY FORMATION AND HOW IT IS GOING TO SHAPE FRENCH POLITICS, WHAT DO WE THINK FRENCH POLITICS IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE? CHARLES: WE DO NOT THINK THE PRO-NATIONAL WILL WIN IN 16. THERE IS NOW AN INFERENCE OF THE CENTERLEFT, NOT SO MUCH ON ECONOMIC POLICY, BUT YOU MAY HAVE NOTICED AFTER THE TERRORIST ATTACKS, THE SOCIALISTS COPIED A FEW IDEAS. I HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR THIS MUCH LONGER THAN ANYBODY ELSE, AND THEY ARE THE ONLY PEOPLE CAPABLE OF DEFENDING FRANCE. GUY: WHAT ARE THE EUROPEAN IMPLICATIONS? CHARLES: THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF DEBATE SUDDENLY. IT DOES NOT SEEM IT IS A CERTAINTY ANYMORE BUT I DO NOT THINK WE ARE GOING IN A DIRECTION THAT WILL TAKE US TO IT COMPLETELY BEING DISMANTLED. I THINK WE WILL SEE THE COUNTRIES ON THE FRONT LINE BEING GIVEN FORCES THAT ARE SENT FROM OTHER COUNTRIES, THE BORDERS BEING SOMEWHAT BOLSTERED . THE SPOT CHECKS BETWEEN BELGIUM AND FRANCE, THAT WILL BECOME MORE THE NORM SO SPOTCHECKS WHEN NECESSARY. GUY: EVER CLOSE UNION? CHARLES: THE U.K. IS OBSESSED WITH EVER CLOSE TO UNION. GUY: THEIR MARKET SAID, WE DO NOT WANT THIS, THAT, AND THE OTHER CHARLES:. IT DOES NOT HAVE AS MANY FANS AS IT USED TO AND IT IS BEING CONTESTED. THEY CARRY THE NEGATIVE FEELING ABOUT THE EU IN FRANCE. I THINK THEY WILL USE THE U.K. REFERENDUM TO CALL FOR ONE IN FRANCE. THAT WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAPPEN STRAIGHT AWAY. GUY: IT IS A CORE COUNTRY CHARLES: IN EUROPE. IT WOULD BE A BIG DEAL BUT I THINK THE PROJECT COULD JUST ABOUT CARRY-ON. YOU WILL ENTER THE DISCOURSE AND SHE WILL START TALKING ABOUT HER REFERENDUM, AND PEOPLE WILL WONDER WHETHER I CANNOT HAVE THEIR OWN RENEGOTIATIONS. GUY: VERY NICE TO SEE YOU,

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