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00:00CRISIS IN SYRIA. IT'S ALSO ABOUT A MASS MIGRATION INTO EUROPE AND A HOLLOWING OUT OF EUROPEAN SELF BELIEF. THE MORAL RELATIVISM -- STEPHANIE: WE NEED SOME FACTS. MATT: THIS IS A MAP THAT ILLUSTRATES THE ROU TES THAT IMMIGRANTS ARE TAKING. THROUGH TURKEY, GREECE, AUSTRIA INTO GERMANY. OR INTO PARIS OR ROME. WE FOUND THESE WORLD BANK RULE OF LAW INDEXES WHICH ARE FASCINATING. THE WORST BEING -2.5, THE BEST BEING + 2.5. TURKEY IS RIGHT ABOUT THE ZERO LINE. CLIMBING UP THE WHITE LINE IS THE U.S. ALTHOUGH IT'S NOT REALLY RELEVANT TO THIS CONVERSATION. MY QUESTION TO DR. FERGUSON IS HOW CAN PEOPLE FROM THIS CULTURE OF NOT NECESSARILY OBEYING A COURT'S RULING, NOT NECESSARILY STICKING TO A CONTRACT, NOT NECESSARILY LISTENING TO POLICE OFFICERS, HAVING THE INTEGRATED INTO THIS CULTURE AND DO WELL SO QUICKLY? >> IT'S AMAZING THAT SYRIA IS ACTUALLY VISIBLE ON THIS CHART. BECAUSE AS A RESULT OF CIVIL WAR, THE RULE OF LAW IN SYRIA HAS BASICALLY ENDED UNLESS YOU MEAN SHARIA LAW. DAVID: THEY HAVEN'T PUT OUT THIS YEARS. >> EVEN LAST YEAR, THE WAR HAS BEEN GOING ON SINCE 2011. WE HAVE TO BE A LITTLE CAREFUL OF THIS DATA. IT'S VERY HARD TO ENFORCE LAW ON ASYLUM SEEKING IN SOUTHERN EUROPE. THE BROAD QUESTION YOU ASK IS INTERESTING. IT'S REALLY POORLY THE FAILURE OF EUROPEAN LABOR MARKETS TO ABSORB IMMIGRANTS OVER TWO GENERATIONS THAT WERE TALKING ABOUT. MOST OF THE ATTACKERS WERE NOT FROM SYRIA. MAYBE ONE WAS. MOST IN FACT HAD BEEN EU CITIZENS BORN IN THE EU IN FRANCE. HERE'S THE POINT. IT'S BEEN A FAILURE TO INTEGRATE THOSE PEOPLE INTO CONTINENTAL EUROPEAN LABOR MARKETS AND A FAILURE ALSO TO ASSIMILATE THEM INTO EUROPEAN CULTURE. THE PERSISTENCE AND INDEED THE GROWTH OF THE EXTREMIST ISLAM INSIDE WESTERN EUROPE IS A KEY PART -- TOM: I THINK PEOPLE UNDERSTAND YOUR CAUTION AND GLOOM ON WHERE PARIS STANDS. I WOULD SUGGEST THAT YOU DISAGREE WITH THE LEVEL OF THE GLOOM OFF OF THIS TRAGEDY. WHAT IS THE RESILIENCY OR OPTIMISM THAT LEADERS CAN BRING TO DIMINISH TERROR AND MOVE THE CONTINENT FORWARD? >> LOOK AT THE RESILIENCE OF THE MARKETS. ASK YOURSELF, WHAT ARE THE MARKETS SEEING THAT WE'RE NOT SEEING HERE? WHY IS IT THAT THE MARKETS -- THEY TOOK AN INITIAL SHOCK AND THEY REACTED EXACTLY HOW YOU WOULD EXPECT OF THEM. EQUITIES WERE LOWER IN ASIA. THE EURO WAS WEAKER. AND THEN WE BOUNCED BACK. WHERE DID THIS COME FROM? PROBABLY TWO THINGS. STEPHANIE: CANDIDATES SPEAK TO THE SELFISHNESS OF THE MARKETS? -- CAN'T IT SPEAK TO THE SELFISHNESS OF THE MARKET? >> I THINK IT'S MORE THAN THAT. AS LONG AS YOU DON'T GET A TIPPING POINT -- PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT CENTRAL BANKS ARE ATTENDED AND ENGAGED. AND THAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT. THERE IS THIS GEOPOLITICAL CONCERN FOR LESS NOT FORGET THAT THERE'S ANOTHER PART WHICH IS THE RESILIENCE OF WESTERN ECONOMIES THAT SO FAR HAS SERVED IT WELL. I THINK WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND THAT THAT IS THE REALITY. WE LIVE IN THIS MULTISPEED COMPLEX -- TOM: CAN WE TILT BACK TO A CONSERVATISM WITHIN WHAT HAS BEEN A POST-WORLD WAR II LIBERAL CONTINENTAL EUROPE? DID THEY BECOME MORE ANGLO-SAXON ON FRIDAY AT 7:00 P.M.? >> THE MAJOR CONCERN IS WE END UP DELIVERING WHAT THE TERRORISTS WANT. WE SLOW DOWN OUR ECONOMY BY OVERREACTING, WE TRIGGER A SERIES OF TIPPING POINT. WE HAVE TO BE REALLY CAREFUL ABOUT HOW WE RESPOND TO THIS. IF YOU SHUT DOWN THE FRENCH ECONOMY COMPLETELY, BECAUSE YOU ARE SO WORRIED ABOUT ANY EVENT, WHAT'S GOING TO HAVE? GDP COLLAPSES, TRADE COLLAPSES. THE FRENCH ARE WORSE OFF. >> NOBODY'S PROPOSING DOING THAT. WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS A LONG OVERDUE CRACKDOWN ON THE THOUSANDS OF SYMPATHIZERS AND ACTIVE SUPPORTERS OF ISLAMIC STATE INSIDE FRANCE. FINANCIAL MARKETS DON'T ALWAYS GET THE FUTURE RIGHT. WHAT WE ARE DEALING WITH IS A THREEFOLD CRISIS. A MASSIVE ESCALATION OF CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST WHICH IS RIGHT NEXT DOOR AND NORTH AFRICA WHICH IS RIGHT NEXT DOOR. SECONDLY A MASSIVE INFLUX OF PEOPLE IN THE MILLIONS, MOSTLY HEADING FOR NORTHERN EUROPE. SOME OF WHOM, ONLY A SMALL MINORITY, PROBABLY TERRORIST SYMPATHIZERS. AND THE EMERGENCE OF A FIFTH COLUMN OVER GENERATIONS WITHIN EUROPE OF SUPPORTERS OF EXTREMIST -- I DON'T EXPECT FINANCIAL TARGETS -- TOM: THIS IS THE CRITICAL POINT. DID FRANCOIS HOLLANDE BECOME MORE ANGLO-SAXON ON FRIDAY? >> WHAT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE IS THE UNITED STATES GET A LITTLE BIT MORE FRENCH. THE FRENCH HAVE BEEN EAGER TO INTERVENE EFFECTIVELY AGAINST ISLAMIC STATE. IT HAS BEEN BRITAIN AND THE UNITED STATES THAT HAVE BEEN HOLDING BACK. TOM: FAIR. >> NEED TO BE MORE FRENCH. THE FRENCH HAVE THE RIGHT ATTITUDE. YOU HAVE TO SMASH THESE PEOPLE. BUT THEY ALSO HAVE TO GET TOUGHER DOMESTICALLY. THE FRENCH AND THE BELGIANS HAVE BEEN SLOW ON THE UPTAKE. STEPHANIE: YESTERDAY, VERY STERN LIKE BLAMED PRESIDENT OBAMA -- BARRY STERNLICH BLAMED PRESIDENT OBAMA. >> BARACK OBAMA HAS MADE NO BIGGER MISTAKE IN HIS PRESIDENCY OVER SYRIA. HE IS THE ONE THAT HELD BACK. HE DREW A REDLINE. IT TURNED INTO A PINK DOTTED LINE. HE HANDED RESPONSIBILITY FOR CHEMICAL WEAPONS OVER TO THE RUSSIANS. HE REALLY HAS LET THE RUSSIANS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE EAST. THIS HAS BEEN THE BIGGEST MISTAKE OF HIS PRESIDENCY AND IT HAS COST MORE HUMAN LIFE THAN BUSH'S INTERVENTION IN IRAQ. BOTH MISTAKES. THE TWO SIDES OF THE SAME COIN. A BUNGLED AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY. TOM: HOW SHOULD MR. LCC RESPOND TO THE EVENTS IN PARIS? >> IT'S REFRESHING TO BE ON A SET AND BE ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF A DISCUSSION. TOM: HAVE SHOULD YOU RESPOND TO THESE EVENTS? >> HE HAS BEEN TRYING TO RESPOND. THE RUSSIAN AIRLINER CAME DOWN A FEW DAYS BEFORE WHAT HAPPENED IN PARIS. HE HAS BEEN LIVING THIS. LET'S NOT FORGET WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING IN SINAI. HE HAS BEEN LIVING THIS IN REAL TIME. THERE HAVE BEEN BOMBS IN CAIRO. HE FACES THE SAME DILEMMA THAT THE WEST FACES. WHAT YOU HAD IN -- HOW FAR DO YOU GO IN REGRESSING YOUR POPULATION IN ORDER TO ENSURE ITS SAFETY? THAT IS THE FUNDAMENTAL BALANCE THAT HAS TO BE STRUCK. LET ME SAY ONE THING. THE MIDDLE EAST IS A VERY COMPLICATED PART OF THE WORLD. STEPHANIE: WHICH IS WHY THERE IS NOT ONE THING TO SAY. >> RIGHT. AND THIS NOTION THAT OUTSIDERS CAN MESS IT UP ALL ON THEIR OWN IS SIMPLY UNDERSTATING HOW COMPLEX THAT PART OF THE WORLD IS. RIGHT? TALK TO PEOPLE THERE. THERE WAS AN AMAZING SURVEY DONE OF THE YOUTH IN THE ARAB WORLD. WHAT ARE THEY WORRIED ABOUT? ISIS, TERRORISM, AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN THAT ORDER. AND LET -- YET 6 BELIEVE THAT THEIR FUTURE IS MORE OPTIMISTIC. BECAUSE THEY FEEL MORE EMPOWERED. THEY FEEL THAT THEY CAN NOW CONTROL MORE OF THEIR DESTINY THAN BEFORE. 40% OF THEM WANT TO HAVE THEIR OWN BUSINESSES. THAT'S A COMPLETE TRANSFORMATION. AS COMPLICATED AND MESSY THE MIDDLE EAST IS WE ALSO HAVE TO FOCUS ON THE POSITIVE TRANSFORMATIONAL ELEMENTS. THAT'S WHY I GO BACK TO THIS NOTION -- IT'S A MENU APPROACH. IT HAS A MILITARY COMPONENT, DIPLOMATIC, AND CRITICALLY A COMPONENT ON THE GROUND SOMETHING THOSE SEGMENTS OF SOCIETY THAT WANTED BETTER FUTURE. STEPHANIE: THERE YOU GO. GREAT DISCUSSION. TOM, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. NIALL AND MOHAMED, WE'RE NOT LETTING YOU LEAVE JUST YET. GOLDMAN SACHS TURNING ITS BACK

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