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00:00EASILY GOES ON THE ROAD TO DESPAIR. HOW DID YOU WALK THAT ROAD WITH LBJ AND ONTO RICHARD NIXON AND ON AFTER THAT FIVE YEARS AFTER THE WAR? HOW DID HE WALK THAT ROAD OF DESPAIR? NIALL: IF YOU READ THE DIARY THAT HE WROTE ON HIS FIRST VISIT TO VIETNAM, YOU SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF THE ROAD. KISSINGER REALIZES WITH THE SHOCK JUST HOW BADLY THE WAR HAS BEEN WAGED, HOW DIFFERENT AMERICAN AGENCIES ARE FALLING OVER ONE ANOTHER, AND HOW THE SOUTH VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT WAS CHRONICALLY CORRUPT. I THINK THAT IS THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG ROAD. ULTIMATELY, THERE IS NO WAY. THERE WAS NO WAY. TO GET THE UNITED STATES OUT OF VIETNAM WITH HONOR. TO HIS CREDIT, IT WAS SIMPLY THE FALL OF SAIGON. I CANNOT SAY THAT KISSINGER DID NOT TRY AND TRY SINCERELY. FOR A GENERATION THAT CAME IN AGE IN 1968, THE BABY BOOMERS, IT WAS AN CONFERENCE CALL THAT HE AND RICHARD NIXON SOUGHT TO USE FORCE TO TRY TO ACHIEVE PEACE. THIS IS ONE OF THE KEYS TO THE STORY. A HUGE GENERATIONAL GAP BETWEEN THE MEN WHO HAD FOUGHT IN WORLD WAR II AND THE NEXT GENERATION THAT CAME TO COLLEGE IN LATE TWO 1960'S AND EARLY 1970'S. THAT WOULD BE THE BIG THEME OF THE SECOND VOLUME. IT IS STRIKING HOW QUICKLY HE LOST ILLUSIONS ABOUT THE WORLD. THAT IS TURN THE FOLLOWING WEEKS WERE TO TRAVEL AROUND IN THE HAIR-RAISING LOCATIONS HELD BY THE VIETCONG. TOM: COULD HE BE A QUICKIE POSSIBLY WANT TO BE -- COULD HE POSSIBLY WANT TO BE SECRETARY OF STATE IN 2015? NIALL: I THINK IN 1992, HE WOULD BE THE FIRST TO ADMIT. TOM: HE COULD DO IT. I WAS WITH HIM SIX WEEKS AGO. AT 92 YEARS OLD, HE COULD DO IT. NIALL: THERE IS NO QUESTION HE HAS ASTONISHING ENERGY AND THOUGHT POWER STILL THERE. WHEN ONE CONSIDERS THE DIFFICULTY OF U.S. FOREIGN-POLICY AND 2015, THERE WOULD BE NOBODY BETTER EQUIPPED TO REFORMULATE OUR STRATEGY IN WAYS THAT WOULD REGAIN THE INITIALS. WE FACE THREE HUGE CHALLENGES -- THE RISE OF EXTREMIST ISLAM, THE SURGEONS OF AN INSECURE AND UNFORGETTABLE RUSSIA, AND ABOVE ALL, THE RISE OF CHINA TO BE A REAL ECONOMIC RIVAL TO THE UNITED STATES TO RIGHT NOW, I DO NOT SEE A COHERENT STRATEGY FOR DEALING WITH THOSE CHALLENGES. KISSINGER AND HIS RECENT PIECE IN "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" SHOWS THAT HE HAS A BETTER GRASP OF THE STRATEGIC PROBLEM. IT IS THE THREE-DIMENSIONAL CHEST OF FOREIGN POLICY. TOM: I SPOKE TO HIM AT LENGTH ABOUT THIS. THERE WAS AN OFF THE RECORD CONVERSATION AND I'M GOING TO RESPECT IT FROM DR. KISSINGER. FULL DISCLOSURE, FOLKS -- I SENT TO READ THIS BOOK COVER TO COVER OR YOU DO NOT GET ANY MONEY. I DO NOT KNOW IF I CAN SAY THAT ABOUT KISSINGER. THE KITS WILL NOT READ THE LENGTH OF YOUR AUTHORITATIVE EFFORT HERE, BUT THE BASIC IDEA OF WORLD ORDER IS THE MOST INTERESTING FOREIGN COUNTRIES IN IT ARE THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. HE LITERALLY WRITES ABOUT OUR NATION AS A DIFFERENT NATION AND SEARCH OF STRATEGY. WHAT WOULD YOU SUGGEST SHOULD BE THAT STRATEGY? NIALL: A RECURRENT THEME OF KISSINGER'S WORK GOING BACK TO THE EARLY DAYS IS BEING THE INABILITY OF THE UNITED STATES TO CONSISTENTLY PURSUE A STRATEGY. PARTLY HE SAYS BECAUSE THEY LACK OF HISTORICAL KNOWLEDGE THAT IS ENDEMIC. PARTLY BECAUSE OF WHAT HE CALLS THE PROBLEM OF CONJECTURE. THE PROBLEM OF CONJECTURE SAYS THAT IF YOU DO A DIFFICULT THING UP FRONT TO PREEMPT THE DISASTER, NOBODY IS GRATEFUL. NOBODY IS GRATEFUL FOR NEVER TO DISASTER SO THEREFORE IT'S AN ATTEMPT TO PLAY THE TIME AND KICK THE CAN DOWNLOAD. THAT HAS CHARACTERIZED OUR POLICY SINCE THE SO-CALLED ARAB SPRING BEGAN. WE HAVE PLAYED FOR TIME WHEN IT COMES TO SYRIA. THE LONGER THE PRESIDENT HAS WAITED OVER THESE FOUR YEARS, THE WORST THE SITUATION HAS GOT. IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THE CRUCIAL THING IS TO TRY TO STOP -- AND THIS IS A POINT THAT KISSINGER MADE IN HIS RECENT OP-ED -- TO STOP ISIS GETTING MORE POWERFUL . TOM: AND HE WAS RIGHT FOR ISIS AGAINST ALL THE FACTORS. NIALL: TO ALLOW THE ISLAMIC STATE TO BECOME A MORE PROMINENT ISLAMIC STATE WOULD BE AN ABSOLUTELY CATASTROPHIC FOREIGN POLICY ERROR. WE ARE TERRIBLY CLOSE TO DOING THAT BECAUSE THE AIRSTRIKES HAVE NOT DEGRADED THEIR ABILITY. IT NOW CONTROL SUBSTANTIAL TRACKS OF IRAQ AND SYRIA. THAT SHOULD CAUSE'S FOR YOUR LISTENERS ON BLOOMBERG, TOM BECAUSE THE INSTABILITY OF THE ENTIRE REGION IS IN PLAY. SAUDI ARABIA IS IN MANY WAYS VULNERABLE TO THE RISE OF EXTREMISM AND IT WOULD BE A VERY, VERY CRUCIAL TARGET FOR THE ISLAMIC STATE. IT HAS TO BE ON THE LIST, THE HOLY PLACES. TOM: THE KISSINGER CRITICS TALK ABOUT BOMBS ON THE GROUND. IN WRITING THIS BOOK AND WORKING ON THE NEXT VOLUME, WHAT DID YOU LEARN ABOUT HIS STATECRAFT AND BOOTS ON THE GROUND? THAT IS THE PHRASE RIGHT NOW. SOME SUGGEST THAT THE BOOO TS NEED TO GO TO TURKEY FIRST BEFORE THE MIDDLE EAST. WHAT DID HENRY KISSINGER THINK? NIALL: THE RECURRENT LESSON OF A MECHANISTIC IS THAT YOU CANNOT GET EVERYTHING FROM THE AIR. KISSINGER HAS THE ADVANTAGE OF THE MOST INTEMPERATE DECISION-MAKERS AND THAT HE WAS ONE OF THOSE BOOTS ON THE GROUND IN 1994 -- 1944. TOM: AND THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR THAT. NIALL: IT IS CRITICAL TO UNDERSTAND THAT HIS ATTITUDE TOWARD WAR AND USE OF FORCE -- THAT GENERATION THAT FALL THE WORLD'S WORST CONVENTIONAL WARFARE HAD A VERY DIFFERENT VIEW OF WHAT COULD BE ACHIEVED. IT IS CERTAINLY NOT POSSIBLE, I THINK, TO IMAGINE THE SOLUTION TO CONTEMPORARY PROBLEMS THAT CAN BE ACHIEVED SOLELY BY THE USE OF UNMANNED DRONES. SOMETIMES I FEEL AS IF THAT HAS BECOME OUR SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM POSED BY ISLAMIC EXTREMISM. THIS PRESIDENT HAS CARRIED OUT DRONE STRIKES IN PAKISTAN. THE EFFECT CERTAINLY DOES NOT SEEM TO DIMINISH THE APPEAL OF ISLAMIC EXTREMISM, BUT QUITE OPPOSITE. TOM: WHAT CAN JOHN KERRY GET OUT OF THIS BOOK? HE IS A LITTLE OVERWORKED. HE HAS PROBABLY GOT SOME AIRPLANE TIME TO LOOK AT YOUR BOOK. WHAT IS ONE THING THAT JOHN NIALL: I THINK THERE ARE FOUR KEY LESSONS THIS BOOK HAS TO OFFER. THE FIRST IS COMING DEFINITELY HISTORY. MORE HISTORICAL EXPERTISE, PLEASE. NO MORE OF THIS, WE DON'T NEED GEORGE CANNON RIGHT NOW. MOST OF YOUR CHOICES ARE BETWEEN EVILS. THERE ARE SELDOM NICE OPTIONS. TOM: THE BOOK IS "KISSINGER." GOOD MORNING. EMILY: THANK YOU SO MUCH, TOM KEENE. HE IS LATER ON HAD NAILL

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Henry Kissinger's Lessons on U.S. Foreign Policy

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