American Economy Seen Accelerating as ETFs Favored S&P 500
The U.S. economy is showing signs of improvement and buyers of exchange-traded funds are taking note.
Investors have sent $5 billion to funds tracking American stocks since the beginning of April, equal to 39 percent of all equity flows for the month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with $600 million from January through March, or 22 percent of the total. Funds tracking the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) and energy stocks got the most money.
“Confidence is increased, and institutional and individual investors and even strategic buyers are all adding to stocks,” said Howard Ward, the chief investment officer for growth equity at Rye, New York-based Gamco Investors Inc., which oversees about $47 billion. “It’s stepped up recently as the market has hit new highs.”
Individuals plowing money into funds tracking American shares are betting an expanding economy will overwhelm concerns such as slowing earnings growth, rising valuations, the end of Fed stimulus and a shrinking workforce. While the S&P 500 has gained 179 percent since global stock markets bottomed in March 2009, its 2 percent advance in 2014 is the weakest start to a year since the bull market began.
Today’s Labor Department report showed unemployment fell to the lowest level since September 2008. Investors are buying even as the S&P 500 approaches a record and the Federal Reserve removes stimulus that underpinned a five-year bull market in which $14 trillion was added to equity values.
The S&P 500 trades at about 17 times earnings, near the highest level since 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Earnings for companies in the index are forecast to increase 7.2 percent in 2014, down from 7.4 percent growth last year.
“The economic news, underscored by the payroll report, is improving,” Ward said. “It’s a tremendous number, and people need to focus on the big picture.”
U.S. employers boosted payrolls in April by the most in two years and the jobless rate plunged. The 288,000 gain in employment was the biggest since January 2012, Labor Department figures showed. Unemployment dropped to 6.3 percent.
Even stronger job growth isn’t enough to entice more people into the labor force, one of the biggest conundrums of the U.S. economic expansion. The share of the working-age population either employed or seeking a job declined in April for the first time this year. At 62.8 percent, the so-called participation rate matches the lowest since March 1978.
The S&P 500 has risen for nearly 31 months without a decline of 10 percent or more, versus the average of 18 months since 1945, according to data from S&P Capital IQ strategist Sam Stovall.
Energy, health-care and real estate ETFs have absorbed the most money among industry funds this year, taking in more than $3.5 billion each, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Investors have pulled the most cash from technology and consumer discretionary funds.
“It’s a reflection of risk appetite in the market,” said Robert Stimpson, a fund manager at Oak Associates Ltd. in Akron, Ohio. His firm manages about $1 billion. “They’re reallocating to a little more blue-chip field.”
Flows into U.S. equity ETFs are outpacing fixed income. American bond ETFs have absorbed $4.5 billion since April, less than the $5.3 billion sent to equity funds, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
In debt markets, ETFs tracking international government bonds attracted the most cash among overseas funds. Since the beginning of April, about $856 million has been sent to foreign funds, adding to the $229 million deposited during the first three months of the year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
About $364.1 million was added to the iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF since the beginning of last month. The Pimco Total Return Exchange-Traded Fund saw redemptions of $75 million during that time.
“There’s no incentive to invest in the bond market right now,” Jeff Sica, president of Sica Wealth Management LLC, which oversees more than $1 billion, said in a phone interview. “The Fed orchestrated an artificially low interest rate environment to push investors into the stock market.”
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