Is It Time for a Switch Overseas?
TGIF, especially for U.S.-focused money managers who've taken a beating this week versus their European brethren. Nearly every dollar which flowed out of U.S. funds found a new home in Europe.
EPFR tracks weekly fund flows from Wednesday to Wednesday, and the symmetry of their most recent data speaks volumes. Global money flow also helps explain this week's market action: as goes the money, so go markets.
Peter Tchir ran structured credit trading at Commerzbank, high yield at UBS and now pens a widely-followed newsletter tracking global markets. Here are some of his morning comments for blog readers:
"For all the talk about bailouts, so far Germany (and every other EU entity) has received interest on all their loans, fees on their guarantees and not taken a single euro of principle haircut. In fact, they have booked profits on bonds bought below par (the ECB and National Central Banks). Banks that participated in LTRO have minted money on sovereign debt they bought. They still have lots of problems on their balance sheet, but time heals a lot of wounds and the ECB is all about providing time."
If you're looking for evidence, consider the news from Europe this week:
We addressed European industries exhibiting the strongest sales growth on 8/12, reasons behind a stronger pound on 8/5 and Europe's steady stream of "upside surprises" on 7/25. See the pattern?
Today we're keeping it simple. Look at the performance of the U.S. vs Europe so far this year. Now ask yourself, is it time for a switch?