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Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

The risk of a US recession. A mixed outlook for stocks. Emerging markets are primed to lure investors. Here’s what you need to know today.

More economists are coming around to the view that a US recession is possible by the end of next year. The downturn may well be modest, but it might also be long. Many observers expect any decline to be a lot less wrenching than the 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis and the back-to-back downturns seen in the 1980s, when inflation was last this high. But it could end up lasting longer than the abbreviated, eight-month contractions of 1990-91 and 2001. That’s because elevated inflation may hold the Federal Reserve back from rushing to reverse the downturn. Much of the manufacturing sector across the world is already slowing: check out these charts explaining the global woes.