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Full-blown trade war becomes baseline scenario, it’s PMI day, and May hangs by a thread. 

The breakdown in Sino-U.S. talks and the latest targeting of Chinese companies by the White House has economists at investment banks increasingly pessimistic about the long-term outlook. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Nomura Holdings Inc. and JPMorgan Chase and Co. are among those pricing-in a greater chance of a protracted trade war. One China analyst sees both sides stuck in a cycle of “fighting and talking” until 2035. Meanwhile, the fallout is hitting emerging-market investors’ favorite tech companies, with the three biggest losing $170 billion in value so far this month.