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politicsClosed Oct 3, 2022

Follow Live Updates on Brazil's Presidential Election

  • Ibovespa opens higher as election heads to runoff; real gains
  • State-owned businesses climb; Sabesp jumps as privatization odds improve
  • Lula: ‘fight continues’ and ‘campaigning starts tomorrow’
  • Bolsonaro blasts polls, seeks ‘good alliances’ ahead of Oct. 30 vote
Thank you for joining us, we’ll end our blog coverage here. Here are some key takeaways from the first round of Brazil’s election results and the impact on markets:

  • The first round of the presidential vote was much tighter than expected, withLuiz Inacio Lula da Silva falling short of the outright majoritythat some polls signaled he had and Jair Bolsonaro doing better than surveys predicted. The two men will now go to a runoff on Oct. 30.
  • The results fueled a rally in Brazilian assets, with the currency jumping more than 3%, leading all emerging-market peers, and stocks surging by about the same, with state-run companies Sabesp, Petrobras and Banco do Brasil leading the way, climbing at least 7% each. The excitement is not just because Bolsonaro did better than expected, but also because his strong showing may push Lula further toward the center.
  • In a speech, Lula said all his elections went to runoffs, and he always believed – and still believes – he’ll win the election. Second rounds are chances to build alliances and further develop proposals, he said.
  • In a surprise scrum with journalists Sunday night, a very calm Bolsonaro blasted pollsters, highlighted economic improvements seen lately – from lower fuel and energy prices to his Auxilio Brasil cash transfer program – and alerted about the dangers of the left returning to power, citing his go-to examples of Nicaragua, Argentina and Venezuela. He also said he’ll work to make “good alliances” for the runoff and improve his support in key states including Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais.
  • Bolsonaro-backed candidates also did better than expected in state and senate races. Sao Paulo, the country’s most populous state – and therefore its biggest electorate – was one of those surprises, with ex-Bolsonaro Minister Tarcisio Freitas coming in first, going to a second round with Lula-backed Fernando Haddad. It gives both front-runners a stage to continue campaigning.
  • Most analysts still see Lula as the favorite to win the election. Eurasia lowered the odds, but still gives him a 65% chance of becoming the next president.
Updated Oct 3