Welcome to our TOPLive blog as all 11 presidential candidates in France’s 2017 presidential election meet tonight for the second televised debate before the first round of voting. We will have live play-by-play, analysis and market reaction as the action unfolds from 8:30 p.m. in Paris.
French presidential candidates 2017. Source: Stringer/Getty Images
Hi, I'm Gregory Viscusi, a government reporter, and along with Paris Bureau Chief Geraldine Amiel, I'll be leading you through the thicket of tonight's debate. With less than three weeks to the first round of voting, the second TV debate will present a new format: All 11 presidential candidates for president will be on stage. And they'll each be aiming at the front-runner.
The verbal sparring will take us closer to the actual voting, with the first round on April 23. With the field tight at the top, a second-round run-off featuring the top two finishers is almost assured as scheduled on May 7.
The first debate left opinion polls little changed at the top:
Centrist Emmanuel Macron and nationalist Marine Le Pen are neck-and-neck before the first round
Francois Fillon is third and, for the moment, out of the running for the run-off
A pale performance by Socialist Benoit Hamon in the first debate saw him overtakenby communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon, who is now catching up to Fillon
So Fillon has to re-find the debating sparkle that drove him to victory in The Republicans primary, and Hamon, who has slipped into single digits, needs to make his mark.
So here we are gearing up for the second pre-first-round debate. If the first one last month with five of the main contenders seemed crowded, this one, with all 11 candidates, is going to be 'un vrai bazar,' as the French like to say -- a real mess. Going around the room to give every candidate equal time might mean issues are addressed in a perfunctory manner. So don't expect any ground-breaking analysis of campaign manifestos from the candidates.
Marine Le Pen: From the very beginning of the campaign, every poll has shown the 49-year-old National Front candidate would take one of the two top spots in the first round and then lose the run-off. The latest Bloomberg composite of French polls puts her at 26 percent in the first round.
Emmanuel Macron: The 39-year-old one-time banker and former economic adviser to Socialist President Francois Hollande was once a long shot, but missteps by his rivals and a public appetite for a fresh face have propelled him into front-runner status. He's at 25 percent in the polls for the first round, and then seen crushing Le Pen in the run-off. Tonight, he'll have to judge whether to play out the clock or risk going all out.
Francois Fillon: The 63-year-old former prime minister was the odds-on favorite to be France’s next president after he won the Republicans primary in November, but went into free-fall when he was put under investigation for providing potentially no-show jobs for his family. He’s fought off attempts to kick him off the ticket, and battles on as if nothing’s the matter. He's at 19 percent in the composite poll, out of the running to make the run-off.
Jean-Luc Melenchon: The veteran campaigner was far back in fifth place, but a strong performance in the first debate propelled him into fourth above Socialist Benoit Hamon. His feisty and colorful language, and uncompromising positions against globalization and Western militarism, have made the 65-year-old the flag bearer for France's divided left. The polls put him at 14 percent.
Benoit Hamon: The 49-year-old former education minister was the big loser in the first debate, in which a pale performance saw him overtaken in opinion polls by Melenchon, leading to an avalanche of Socialist Party elders endorsing Macron as the best rampart against Le Pen. He was at about 14 percent before the first debate; now he's at 10 percent.
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan: He's been mayor of a bourgeois town near Paris since 1995 and a member of parliament since 1997. He spent most of his political life in the same political party as Fillon before creating France Debout, or France Stand Up, in 2007, arguing for a more Gaullist independent France. The clean-cut well-spoken 56-year-old won 1.8 percent in the 2012 presidential election, and is credited with 4.5 percent support in the latest Ifop poll.
Nathalie Arthaud: The 47-year-old candidate of the Workers Party took 0.6 percent in the last election and is running again after far-left parties failed to agree on a common platform. The high school economics teacher wants to ban firings, raise salaries, and give employees more control over companies. Ifop puts her support at 0.5 percent.
Philippe Poutou: The New Anti-Capitalist Party candidate is running again after taking 1.15 percent last time. The 50-year-old union representative at a Ford car-parts plant failed to reach an alliance with Arthaud largely because his movement focuses on issues beyond workers rights such as ecology, anti-racism, feminism, and LGBT rights. He’s at 0.5 percent, according to Ifop.
Jacques Cheminade: At 75 he’s the oldest candidate, and one of two born outside France (him in Argentina, Melenchon in Morocco). The Lyndon LaRouche follower is on his third run for president, and is best known for his call to colonize Mars. His Solidarity and Progress Party is focused on fighting the power of international banks, reworking the international monetary system, and taking France out of the euro. He took 0.25 percent last time but his support doesn’t even show up in Ifop's or OpinionWay’s polls.
Jean Lassalle: The 61-year-old farmer and member of parliament from the Pyrenees doesn’t belong to any political movement and doesn’t have one behind him. His platform calls for reducing the power of finance, decentralizing power, and giving control of natural resources to local communities. He’s at 1 percent, according to Ifop.
Francois Asselineau: The former finance ministry civil servant founded his Popular Republican Union in 2007 to push for France leaving the EU, the euro, and NATO. His party’s website includes theories about how U.S. governments with French acquiescence control EU policy. Ifop puts the 59-year-old at 0.5 percent.
The narrowing spread between French bonds and bunds in the past month shows investor concern over the French election is easing. But keep in mind that the gap is compressing from the highest since 2012.
The options market is pointing to increasing investor worries over the election. The two front VIX futures were inverted for the first time ever on Monday, with April's contracts trading above May's, MRA's Pravit Chintawongvanich wrote in a report today. This chart by Bloomberg's Cecile Vannucci shows that April and May VIX contracts are now trading at around the same level.
Philippe Poutou of the Anti-Capitalist Party is wearing a simple white shirt and is refusing to take part in the pre-debate family photo. Macron went to try to convince Poutou to come, but he declined.
