U.S. election coverage is here. Join us Nov. 8, starting at 6:45 New York time, for a live blog of the results, including minute-by-minute analysis of what the outcome means for the markets, the economy and the world.
Welcome to Election Night! I'm Justin Sink, White House Correspondent for Bloomberg Politics, and tonight we're going to bring you full coverage of the historic 2016 election. I'll be keeping you up to date on all the latest real-time results and analysis as the nation chooses its next president.
Joining me tonight are my colleagues Jodi Schneider, who is focusing on the battle to control Congress, Paula Dwyer, who is looking at what issues drove voters to the polls, and Dan Moss, who is looking at some of the broader economic trends influencing the contest. We also have our eye on important gubernatorial races and ballot initiatives across all 50 states.
In the presidential race, polls suggest a tight race headed into Election Day. The two candidates appear virtually deadlocked in the polls, with Secretary Hillary Clinton holding a 44 percent to 41 percent advantage according to the final Bloomberg Politics poll taken before Election Day.
Election prediction models say Clinton is the favorite to capture the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the White House. But with only a modest polling advantage, the odds of a Trump upset are significant:
While uncertainty remains, there's broad agreement on which states will decide the fate of the election. A group of ninestates: New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Arizona are considered battlegrounds most likely to swing the presidential contest. Here's FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the swing states, illustrating how close some of those races are:
This table lists the poll closing times of all states and the District of Columbia. Note that for states with polling places that span multiple time zones, the latest closing time is used:
Both candidates went to the polls this morning in New York. At an elementary school in Chappaqua, N.Y., Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, cast their ballot. The Democratic nominee said the experience was a "humbling feeling" and that she was thinking of her mother, Dorothy Rodham, who was born on the day Congress approved women's right to vote. Later in the morning, Clinton conducted a series of radio interviews to encourage supporters to get out and vote.
Donald Trump's visit to the polls was slightly more eventful, with the candidate cheered and jeered as he cast his ballot at a Manhattan elementary school. Asked if he would concede the election if Clinton emerged victorious, Trump said, "We'll see what happens."
One thing we'll be watching closely tonight is whether the so-called "ground game" matters. The Clinton campaign plowed millions into an effort to turnout voters in key swing states, while Trump's team largely outsourced the effort to the Republican National Committee. Preliminary results from a Morning Consult/POLITICO Exit Poll suggest Clinton's strategy may have paid dividends: 17 percent of voters say they were contacted by the Clinton campaign, compared to only 8 percent who say they were reached by Trump's team.
The next time the U.S. stock market trades we'll likely have a winner in this grueling election. Let's recap the trading day that was Tuesday:
* S&P 500 Index extended its relief rally in the wake of the second FBI letter. Utilities and phone stocks led the benchmark up 0.4% to close at 2,139.53, its highest close since Oct. 25.
* The dollar meandered as gains in some high-yielding currencies like the Mexican peso and the Kiwi neutered losses in havens like the yen and the Swiss franc.
* HAVENS: Gold fell for a second session, slipping 0.5 percent in the spot market to $1,275.72 an ounce. The yen fell to its weakest level this month, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields added three basis points to 1.86 percent, the highest close since May.
After tumbling on Monday, the VIX has moved cautiously today. The CBOE gauge of expected volatility in U.S. stocks added 0.2 percent Tuesday, following the previous session's 17 percent surge.
Folks in Asia are a little surprised by the risk-on equity rally we're seeing as the early vote counts start to trickle in. Chihiro Ohta, a senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. In Tokyo, says stocks are delivering a solid performance:
``I thought the market would take on more of a wait-and-see stance, but it looks like markets around the globe are pricing in a Clinton win.''
Early exit polls showed voters unhappy with their choice in the presidential election. More than half -- 54 percent -- said they saw Hillary Clinton unfavorably, while 61 percent said the same of Donald Trump, according to ABC News. Three in four say they made their decision on who to vote for more than a month ago.
White voters account for 70 percent of the electorate, with 11 percent of voters identifying as Hispanic and 12 percent as black. That's a slightly more diverse electorate than in previous years.
College-educated voters now represent 50 percent of the electorate -- a record-setting level, and a positive sign for Clinton. But Trump's team is likely heartened by data showing white Evangelical Christians -- a core constituency -- making up 27 percent of voters in the preliminary exit polls.
For Clinton, election hinges on winning an electorate that views her as untrustworthy and unlikable. The FBI examination over her a new cache of emails only exacerbated this view. Although FBI Director James Comey said Sunday that the review did not change the agency's decision not to pursue criminal charges against Clinton, some 51 percent of voters still say they view her unfavorably, according to the latest Bloomberg Politics poll.
And Clinton's historically bad poll numbers are still better than those of Donald Trump, who 57 percent of voters see unfavorably. The real estate mogul's controversial comments about women and minorities have decimated his appeal in urban centers and among female and nonwhite Americans. The closing days of his candidacy were also rocked by controversy after the conviction of two former top aides to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is heading Trump's transition team, in the Bridgegate saga.
Though much of the commentary tonight will be focusing on who is winning in the number of votes, what's actually more important is which candidate is ahead in the quest for the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House.
Here's how it works: All 50 states (and D.C.) have a number of electors that are supposed to proportionately represent that state's population. When U.S. voters go to the polls, they are actually voting for the electors who will then cast ballots for the candidates.
Except for Maine and Nebraska, the states have a winner-take-all system under which if you win a majority of votes in a state, the candidate gets all its electoral votes.
A growing number of political experts -- and many voters -- see the Electoral College as an anachronism left over from America's Colonial days. Most of the time it doesn't really matter -- the popular vote and the Electoral College tally usually are in concert.
Yet remember 2000 and the Florida recount? Florida's electoral votes were determining the election's outcome and 537 popular votes divided the candidates. So a recount was called, legal wrangling ensued and the Supreme Court ended up declaring George W. Bush the winner over Al Gore.
Some say 2000 could happen all over again if vote counts in battleground states with relatively sizable Electoral College counts have very divided vote counts.
Clinton's biggest challenge is turning out black voters in Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; Hispanic voters in Nevada, Florida and Arizona; and college-educated women in the suburban enclaves of Georgia, New Hampshire and Virginia.
Black turnout is a special worry for Clinton. Early voting results showed a decline from 2008 and 2012 in some states. Even though Clinton says she will carry the torch for a third Barack Obama term, interest among blacks is down now that the first black president isn't on the ballot.
Trump's biggest challenge is the opposite of Clinton's: He has to hope that blacks and Hispanics vote in smaller numbers than in 2008 and 2012, and that his core supporters -- non-college-educated white men -- turn out en masse, including those who rarely, if ever, vote. Unlike Clinton, Trump has done little to build a get-out-the-vote organization, even in his must-win states.
Trump needs to win Florida and Ohio to get the requisite 270 electoral votes, a high hurdle. Even then, Clinton could block his path to victory. She can, for example, lose Ohio and still win if she takes North Carolina and Arizona.
Polls close at 7 pm for Georgia and Virginia, the first two battleground states to report. Georgia is usually a ruby-red state, but the burgeoning ranks of African Americans and an influx of younger, college-educated voters are starting to turn it blue. Trump is the likely winner here, but if Clinton upsets him, it bodes well for her nationally.
Virginia, also once reliably Republican red, is almost certain to go for Clinton on the strength of college-educated voters in the Washington suburbs, which vaulted Obama to wins there in 2008 and 2012.
The Vermont, Indiana, and Kentucky wins were all expected, and don't change the map. More surprising is that networks aren't yet ready to project a state like South Carolina, which should be an easy win for Trump. The Clinton campaign is counting on a win in Virginia, which has become increasingly Democratic in recent years and is home to her running mate, Tim Kaine.
Let's take an initial look at what the markets are doing as we get the first lot of results. Japanese and Korean markets have opened to join Australia and New Zealand -- all those stock benchmarks are up right now.
Polls have also closed for most voters in Florida, although those in the panhandle still have another hour to cast their ballots. The state is close to a pure tossup based on pre-election polls -- but nearly a must-win for Trump. If Clinton is able to bank that state's 29 electoral votes, Trump will need a series of dramatic upset victories in traditionally Democratic Rust Belt states.
