Goldman, JPMorgan Say Markets Pricing in Higher Recession Odds
- Rate markets are pricing in more risk of economic slowdown
- But economists, markets still predicting a soft landing ahead
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Financial markets are flashing a higher probability of an oncoming recession in the wake of the market maelstrom that briefly sparked fear across Wall Street last week.
It still remains an outside chance. But models from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. show that the market-implied odds of an economic downturn have risen materially, judging by signals in the US bond market and to a lesser extent the performance of stocks that are acutely sensitive to the ebbs and flows of the business cycle.